THAILAND: GEN SONTHI VOWS TO KEEP TRANSITION

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 002503

SIPDIS

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PACOM FOR FPA HUSO
NSC FOR MORROW

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/03/2017
TAGS: PREL MARR PGOV TH
SUBJECT: THAILAND: GEN SONTHI VOWS TO KEEP TRANSITION
TIMETABLE

REF: BANGKOK 756

BANGKOK 00002503 001.2 OF 002


Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (a and d)


1. (C) Summary. Council for National Security (CNS) head
General Sonthi Boonyaratglin assured the Ambassador that,
despite frustrations with PM Surayud Chulanont's
indecisiveness, he would not oust the Prime Minister, that
neither Sonthi nor any other member of the CNS would become
Prime Minister under the interim government, and that
elections would take place before the end of the year.
Sonthi also told the Ambassador that the CNS would not impose
any emergency measures limiting civil liberties in Bangkok to
preempt public demonstrations but reserved the right to
implement measures to protect public safety if violence
erupted in the capital. Sonthi claimed not to have decided
who would replace him as Commander in Chief of the Royal Thai
Army (RTA),but strongly indicated it would not be Assistant
RTA CINC and frequent firebrand General Saprang Kalayanamtr.
End Summary.


2. (C) In a May 2 dinner at the Residence, GEN Sonthi,
accompanied by RTA Assistant CINC GEN Anupong Paojinda,
Deputy Chief of Personal Staff GEN Atikom Tanlert, Assistant
Chief of Staff for Intelligence LTG Tienwit Saipong, Director
of Intelligence MG Sirichai Distakul, and Personal Staff
Officer Senior COL Nothapol Boonngam shared views on the
current political situation.

"I WILL NOT OUST SURAYUD"


3. (C) In a lengthy pull-aside before dinner, the
Ambassador told Sonthi that Washington continued to monitor
the political situation and was concerned about press
speculation that Sonthi might oust Surayud and name himself
as Prime Minister. Such a move, the Ambassador said, would
be "untenable." The Ambassador also cautioned Sonthi against
staging any type of "re-coup," delaying elections or
implementing emergency measures in Bangkok to curb civil
liberties.


4. (C) Echoing his comments in February (reftel),Sonthi
expressed his continued frustration with Surayud's indecisive
nature. He noted that Surayud's inability to come down on
recalcitrant subordinates had caused less damage years ago
when Surayud was RTA CINC because the Army's hierarchical
structure tended to ensure that his orders were obeyed. In
the political realm, however, Cabinet members have been able
frequently to ignore edicts from the Prime Minister without
consequences. Sonthi acknowledged that there had been talk
of staging a follow on coup to replace Surayud. However, he
was quick to add, it was obvious that doing so would only
further alienate the international community and cause the
CNS to lose the domestic support of those who view the
September 19 coup as an evil necessary to rid the country of
former PM Thaksin Shinawatra. "What would be the point of my
becoming Prime Minister," Sonthi asked rhetorically, "if
doing so undermined everything we worked for in September?"
Sonthi gave every indication that he expects Surayud to
remain as Prime Minister until elections are held despite the
Prime Minister's shortcomings. "If we were to replace
Surayud there is no one up to the job we could name in his
place," he added.

TIMETABLES WILL BE MET, WE WILL NOT PREEMPTIVELY SUSPEND
CIVIL LIBERTIES


5. (C) Sonthi also told the Ambassador that he is committed
to holding elections before the end of the year. Anupong,
who is also a member of the CNS, also assured us in a side
bar conversation that elections would be held before the end
of the year. Sonthi told the Ambassador that the CNS would
not implement any emergency measures in Bangkok curbing civil
liberties in order to preempt any public demonstrations but
reserved the right to take public safety measures in the
capital if demonstrations turned violent.

WHO WILL BE THE NEW ARMY CINC?


BANGKOK 00002503 002.2 OF 002



6. (C) Under Thai law, Sonthi must retire on October 1. In
response to the Ambassador's query of who will replace him as
RTA CINC, Sonthi did not tip his hand. However, he did
suggest that he disagreed with earlier practices of naming
the new CINC too early since doing so tended frequently to
cause that officer to preen about and lose focus on his
ongoing assignment. It is no secret that RTA Assistant CINC
GEN Saprang Kalayanamtr hopes to be named as CINC and has
been jockeying openly for the position for some time. Sonthi
was dismissive of Saprang's chances, however, leaving the
strong impression that he thinks Saprang would be a poor
choice for the position. Sonthi suggested that Saprang's
rough edges and tendency to act like a loose cannon tend to
make him seem like a country mouse visiting the big city.


7. (C) In an aside at dinner, LTG Tienwit privately
expressed his personal opinion that either Assistant CINC
Anupong or RTA Chief of Staff GEN Montree Sangkrasap would be
the next CINC. Tienwit discounted rumors that MOD Permanent
Secretary GEN Winai Phattiyakul would be Army CINC since

SIPDIS
Winai lacks a power base within the RTA.


8. (C) Sonthi did not say what he plans to do after
stepping down from the RTA, but did not rule out an eventual
role in politics. The Ambassador, noting America's history
of military officers in political life, stressed the
importance of those persons entering politics through the
normal political process rather than through extra-legal
means.

HOW TO MAKE THE TRAINS RUN ON TIME


9. (C) Sonthi told the Ambassador that, in an attempt to
force Cabinet members to implement their instructions, he had
begun sitting in on Cabinet meetings. Sonthi suggested that
doing so was time-consuming but removed any doubt in the
Ministers' minds that the CNS endorsed the instructions of
the Prime Minister. Sonthi expressed frustration at the
government having had to appoint deputy ministers to oversee
the work of Cabinet Ministers but indicated he would not
support a major cabinet reshuffle given how disruptive a
reshuffle would be and the short amount of time remaining
before elections.

THE CONSTITUTION


10. (C) Sonthi and Anupong both expressed confidence that
the electorate will ultimately endorse a new constitution.
Sonthi said that a number of controversial clauses had been
inserted in the initial draft in order to gauge public
opinion. Those clauses deemed most divisive, he explained,
would be modified before the constitution is submitted to the
voters.

THE SOUTH


11. (C) Sonthi and Anupong both attributed the increased
level of violence in southern Thailand to the minority of
radical insurgents there who hope to foment Buddhist-Muslim
violence to stave off any chance of reconciliation with the
Government. Anupong said such measures should be expected
from hard-line radicals who fear the majority of the
population will be willing to work with the government to
resolve their grievances. Anupong noted the Thai
Government's continued desire to deal with the insurgency as
a domestic matter but expressed appreciation for U.S.
technical assistance and training to improve overall skills
within the RTA.

RESTORING THE MIL-MIL RELATIONSHIP AFTER ELECTIONS


12. (C) Several of the RTA officers present expressed their
hope that once elections are held at the end of the year both
governments can move quickly to restore mil-mil links. One
went so far to ask whether IMET could be restored by the end
of December if fair elections were held earlier in that month.
BOYCE