PRASONG EXPANDS ON SURAYUD-SONTHI RIFT, DENIES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BANGKOK 002327

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/24/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM TH
SUBJECT: PRASONG EXPANDS ON SURAYUD-SONTHI RIFT, DENIES
RECOUP OR ELECTION DELAY

REF: A. BANGKOK 02304 (SONTHI'S AMBITIONS SURAYUD'S

WEAKNESS)

B. BANGKOK 02302 (PREM ON THE KING THAKSIN AND THE
POLITICAL SITUATION)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce. Reason 1.4 (B,D)


1. (C) Summary. Constitution Drafting Committee (CDC)
Chairman and longtime political insider Prasong Soonsiri
offered new details on the rumored rift between Prime
Minister Surayud and Army Chief Sonthi in a meeting with the
Ambassador on April 24. Prasong relayed discussions between
himself and Sonthi on efforts to "gently" push Surayud out of
office, but agreed with the Ambassador's assessment that any
effort to elevate Sonthi to the PM job would be a "disaster."
Prasong likewise acknowledged the Ambassador's warning that
a "recoup," reinstatement of martial law, or delay in
elections would lead to fierce domestic and international
opposition. Prasong appeared bullish on the prospects for
passage of the draft constitution and confident that
deposed-PM Thaksin's political party would be dissolved. End
Summary.

PRASONG AND SONTHI'S PLAN VS. SURAYUD
--------------


2. (C) In a four-eyes meeting with the Ambassador on April
24, CDC Chair and erstwhile coup-plotter Prasong Soonsiri
confirmed recent (ref A) rumors of a split between the PM and
Army chief, while highlighting his role (by his own account)
in the dynamic. Prasong began with a now-familiar criticism
of the PM's performance, dismissing reports that Surayud was
newly energized following his recent hospital visit. The
Ambassador responded that Privy Council President Prem
Tinsulanonda and members of the Council on National Security
(CNS) had characterized their view of the government as not
so much disappointment in Surayud, as a feeling that the
cabinet was not doing enough to help the PM. Prasong
rejected this argument, saying that the government's woes
reflected a lack of leadership by the PM and that the cabinet
should not be blamed. According to Prasong, Surayud has
failed to lead and has a "hidden agenda." (Comment:
unspecified but probably referring to Surayud's preference
for a softer approach in dealing with Thaksin. End Comment.)
Prasong went on to say that Surayud refused to confront the
enemy (i.e. Thaksin). In an anecdote illustrating Surayud's
misguided attitude, Sonthi reportedly told Prasong that
Surayud has characterized his decision to accept the PM job
as a favor to the military. By contrast, Sonthi commented to
Prasong that he had asked Surayud to take the top job as a
favor to the country.


3. (C) On the hot topic of relations between Sonthi and
Surayud, the Ambassador said that Prem had recently labeled
them "fine." Prasong replied that Prem had called Sonthi to
discuss the relationship between the PM and Army Chief, but
that Sonthi had played down the disagreement because Prem is
old and shouldn't be burdened with such things. Prasong went
on to recount a lunch meeting a few days earlier with Sonthi,
wherein the two of them formulated a new political plan.
According to this account, Sonthi agreed he would go to
Surayud and propose a sweeping cabinet change in order to
improve the government's performance. (Note: it is not clear
if recent, minor, cabinet shifts are a result of this effort.
End Note.) This plan would likely engender two possible
reactions. The first, hoped-for, reaction, according to
Prasong, would be Surayud's own resignation. If Surayud did
not offer to resign, Sonthi would be forced to inspire a
series of demonstrations and a letter writing campaign
calling for the PM to step down. Prasong underscored that
Sonthi could not directly tell Surayud to step down, and that
any effort to oust the PM must be done "gently."


4. (C) The Ambassador asked, under this plan, who would
replace Surayud? Prasong agreed that there was no obvious
candidate, though some people had suggested that he himself
take the top job. The Ambassador underscored that the
elevation of Army Chief Sonthi to the Prime Minister slot

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would be a "disaster" for Thailand, internally and
externally. Prasong agreed, saying that he had advised
Sonthi against taking the PM or even a Deputy Prime Minister
job. He concurred that such a move would inspire a negative
reaction, both domestically and internationally, and would
cast the coup as a pretext for a military seizure of power.
Prasong also acknowledged that Sonthi does not have the
political skills to serve as PM. The Ambassador expounded
our list of concerns, clearly stating that a "recoup,"
reinstatement of martial law or invocation of the Emergency
Decree in Bangkok, or a delay of the elections scheduled for
December, would likewise be unacceptable to the U.S. and
international community. Prasong clearly agreed on all four
points.

THE CONSTITUTION
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the draft constitution, Prasong said that
his job was done, "for now." He had shepherded the first
draft of the constitution out, on time. Prasong dismissed
controversy over any of the clauses in the draft charter,
explaining that the draft was meant to inspire public debate
and revision, before being finalized. He compared this
version to a house, recently constructed. The owners now
have the freedom to change the color, the windows, the trim
or the fixtures. The foundation, however, had been laid, in
that this constitution would empower the people, through the
judicial system, to hold their representatives accountable.
(Note: several supporters and critics have made public note
of the expanded rights in the draft charter for the public to
directly challenge the government via the courts. End Note.)


6. (C) According to Prasong, the draft (presumably amended)
charter should pass the coming public referendum. On
specific provisions currently inspiring debate, Prasong
acknowledged that some people opposed the appointed Senate,
but said that he was open to better ideas. The new,
multi-member parliamentary districts were not a problem.
Some opponents to the charter were focusing on the lack of a
clause establishing Buddhism as the state religion. Prasong
emphasized that this was not his unilateral decision, but was
agreed to by the 35-member drafting body. None of the
previous constitutions had such a clause. He explained that
Thaksin and former PM Chawalit Yongchaiyudh were playing
games with this issue in an effort to tarnish the interim
government. Enshrining Buddhism as the state religion would
have little impact on the nature of religion in this heavily
Buddhist-country and would only complicate matters in the
southern Muslim provinces.

PARTY DISSOLUTIONS
--------------


7. (C) Prasong appeared confident that Thaksin's Thai Rak
Thai (TRT) party would be dissolved for election fraud in an
upcoming court verdict. TRT would be able to reform, but
with a tarnished reputation. More important, party leader
Chaturon Chaiseng and the entire 100-member TRT executive
board would be banned for politics for five years. Prasong
was not as certain about the fate of the Democrat party,
which faces similar charges and penalties. According to
Prasong, the Democrats are likely to reconstitute themselves
under new leadership--tossing current chief Abhisit Vejajiva
for former PM Chuan Leekpai--regardless of what the court
decides. When asked for his perspective on Chat Thai leader
Banharn Silapa-archa, Prasong doesn't believe that the former
PM and master politician wants to hold the top job again: "he
just wants his people in place."

COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) This was a good opportunity to voice our concerns, and
offer a reality check to Prasong on the negative consequences
of certain actions. Prasong's account may be colored by his
own ambitions. While clearly working to further his own
interest (and advance the possibility of his replacing

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Surayud) Prasong offered the most detail yet on the rift
between Surayud and Sonthi. For all of Prasong's assurances,
however, the Thai political dynamic appears to be beyond the
control of any one man.
BOYCE