AMBASSADOR'S CALL ON FORMER PM BANHARN SILAPA-ARCHA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001630

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/19/2017
TAGS: PGOV PHUM KDEM TH
SUBJECT: AMBASSADOR'S CALL ON FORMER PM BANHARN SILAPA-ARCHA

REF: A. BANGKOK 1538 (CHATURON WORRIED)

B. BANGKOK 1034 (CHATURON DEFIES RESTRICTIONS)

C. 06 BANGKOK 5536 (MEETING WITH BANHARN)

Classified By: Ambassador Ralph L. Boyce, reason: 1.4 (b) and (d).

SUMMARY
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1. (C) Former Prime Minister Banharn Silapa-Archa told the
Ambassador that the Thai Rak Thai Party (TRT) had lost most
of its influence, and fair elections would show a sharp
decline in support for TRT. Banharn foresaw moderate growth
for his own Chart Thai Party. He staunchly opposed a
proposed constitutional provision allowing any person other
than an elected legislator from becoming Prime Minister, but
he expressed ambivalence about other potential ways in which
the constitution might reshape Thai politics. Banharn spoke
highly of Prime Minister Surayud's character and dismissed
the possibility of further military intervention in politics.
He doubted the authorities would prosecute TRT's Party
Leader for engaging in campaign-like activities. End Summary.

THAKSIN AND THAI RAK THAI
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2. (C) The Ambassador called on former Prime Minister Banharn
Silapa-Archa at Chart Thai Party headquarters on March 16,
meeting him for the first time since the September 19 coup.
Banharn said that he did not support the military's seizure
of power, but former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra's
actions left the country with no choice. At the time of the
coup, with weeks remaining before national elections were
likely to take place, unspecified Thai Rak Thai (TRT) figures
had already begun vote-buying efforts. Banharn said he had
suspected a coup might take place, and he was somewhat
surprised that Thaksin was willing to travel abroad when the
political climate was so tense.


3. (C) Banharn said he did not believe Thaksin's professed
willingness to withdraw from politics. He said Thaksin would
be able to return to Thailand, but only after the election
and the installation of a new civilian government. According
to Banharn, Thaksin's problems stemmed from the greed and
substantial influence of his wife, Potjaman.


4. (C) As for TRT, the party Thaksin formerly led, Banharn
dismissively labeled it as "dead." Highlighting the number
of prominent figures who either deserted the party or have
become inactive, Banharn added that the party has lost its
ability to use the military, police, and civil service to
garner votes for the party. He said TRT "cannot compete,"
and projected it would win 70 seats. (Comment: Banharn's
calculation probably assumed a 500-seat House, similar to
pre-coup. In such a legislature, 70 seats is a far cry from
the 377 that TRT won in 2005, but still would represent a
meaningful showing. End Comment.)


5. (C) Banharn predicted his own Chart Thai Party would gain
seats, so long as the election was fair. (Note: Chart Thai
won only 26 seats in 2005. End Note.) However, he said he
did not want Chart Thai to grow too large, otherwise it would
have to contend with the type of factionalism that had beset
TRT.

CONSTITUTION
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5. (C) Banharn said that it would be necessary for the
constitution to mandate that Thailand's Prime Ministers be
elected members of parliament, contrary to proposals some
political figures had floated. Attempts to include
provisions allowing exceptions -- even if only in times of
crisis -- would cause turmoil. Banharn was less concerned
about other ways in which the constitution might reshape
politics. He was open to the idea of multi-member districts,
saying that larger districts, which would make it easier for
small parties to win seats in the House, would not
necessarily mean a return to the instability that was common
in the mid-1990's.


6. (C) It mattered little whether the constitution drafters
would retain provisions for some seats to be allocated

BANGKOK 00001630 002 OF 002


through a party list system, Banharn said. He also appeared
ambivalent about the form of the next Senate. While some
officials of his party have advocated that Senators be
appointed to their positions, Banharn told the Ambassador
that it might be possible to have another elected Senate --
it would depend on the rules, he said. The basic problem
that Thailand confronted was its lack of development and low
level of education. Accordingly, it would take years for
Thailand to become a mature and stable democracy.

THE CURRENT ADMINISTRATION
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7. (C) Banharn expressed confidence that the military would
extricate itself from politics after the next election. He
largely dismissed the possibility of another coup, which has
been the subject of speculation in light of growing criticism
of the current administration's performance. The Ambassador
stressed that any further move by the military to reshape the
political landscape would lead to widespread criticism by the
international community. Banharn characterized Prime
Minister Surayud as a good and well-intentioned man. It
would be difficult to find anyone to replace Surayud, Banharn
said. Surayud's cabinet was less than impressive, however --
Banharn noted that new Finance Minister Chalongphob
Sussangkarn was not particularly adept.

BAN ON PARTY ACTIVITIES
--------------


8. (C) Addressing TRT Party Leader Chaturon Chaiseng's
defiance of a ban on political party activities (ref B),
Banharn said that Chaturon had violated the law, and he had
done so intentionally, as a provocation. Nevertheless,
Banharn felt that the authorities would not follow through on
their threats to prosecute him. (Note: Despite official
restrictions on party activities, Banharn has stated publicly
that Chart Thai officials will continue meeting with their
constituents, as these meetings do not pose a security
threat. End Note.)

COMMENT
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9. (C) Banharn and his Chart Thai cohorts have been largely
supportive of the military since the September coup. So when
they insist that the Prime Minister must be an elected MP,
despite trial balloons to the contrary that seem supported by
conservative figures, we conclude that opposition to
alternatives would be strong indeed. We also noted that
Banharn and Chaturon have divergent views on support for TRT:
Banharn feels TRT is far less popular than it used to be,
whereas Chaturon feels TRT could win a majority of the House
seats (ref A). We do not know which perspective is more
accurate, but Banharn's assessment may be the premise from
which he derives his confidence that Thailand can restore
democratic rule fairly easily.
BOYCE