CONSTITUTION DRAFTER REPORTS PROGRESS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BANGKOK 001188 SIPDIS SIPDIS PACOM FOR FPA HUSO NSC FOR MORROW E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/26/2016 TAGS: PGOV PHUM PREL KDEM TH SUBJECT: CONSTITUTION DRAFTER REPORTS PROGRESS Classified By: Political Counselor Susan M. Sutton, reason 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: The first draft of the constitution should be ready for review by government agencies by mid April, according to Constitution Drafting Committee deputy Chair Charan Pakditanakul. EAP/MLS Director Rapson underscored the USG's interest in Thailand's quick return to full democracy during a meeting with Charan on February 26. Charan said that the drafting process was on track to permit a referendum by later July or August, and he anticipated elections before the end of the year. He also expressed concern, however, that the constitution might not pass the referendum, which could contribute to political instability and "clashes." He admitted that this constitution, built on the weak foundation of the coup, might not be sustainable once the country returned to elected government. End summary. ¶2. (C) EAP/MLS Director Rob Rapson met with Charan Pakditanakul, deputy chairman of the 35-member Constitution Drafting Commission (CDC),on February 26, to discuss the progress on the draft constitution. Rapson emphasized the importance the USG places on the quick restoration of full democracy in Thailand. Charan said that the time allotted to draft the new charter was very short, but he believed that they would be able to complete the job, as they were relying in large part on the 1997 Constitution as a model. The committee hoped to have a rough first draft ready by April 19, which would be broadly disseminated to Thai government agencies, ministries, universities and others for their review, a process that would take about one month. The input from these bodies, and from the ongoing public consultations, would be taken into account in the preparation of the final draft, which would be submitted to a referendum, probably in late July or August. ¶3. (C) Charan noted that there were serious concerns that the constitution might not pass the referendum. There were "100 issues" covered by the constitution, and there could be opposing points on view on each one. He singled out two issues as particularly contentious: making Buddhism the state religion, and whether the prime minister would have to be drawn from among the elected MPs. On the latter (one of the most contentious),he believed that the constitution would specify that the PM must be drawn from the elected parliament, but he expected that those who opposed this provision might try to amend the constitution after the elections to allow for a non-elected PM. On the state religion, Charan noted that some elements of Thai society believe that the government devotes too little attention to supporting Buddhism, and too much to the concerns of "other religions." Other contentious issues still remain undecided. The 35 members of the CDC will go "off-site" next week and will try to determine their recommendations for the election of the Senate. They have also not agreed on a system to elect the MPs. They are currently considering variations on system that would draw larger, multi-member constituencies, but this is still undecided. ¶4. (C) Asked whether this new constitution would be durable, Charan replied, frankly, that he did not believe it would be. First of all, the CDC had to consider the problem of the referendum. In some cases, they might not be able to choose "the best" option, if they thought it could prove a serious obstacle to winning popular approval. "We may have to drop good points in order to get it to pass," he noted. There was a great concern that, if the constitution did not pass the referendum, there would be "clashes" within society, a concern he returned to several times. (Note: if the constitution fails to pass the referendum, the coup council can choose any previous constitution, amend it as necessary, and promulgate it as the basis for the new elections. If this happens, many Thai anticipate significant public protest. End note.) There was also the problem of the weak "foundation" of the constitution (i.e., the coup). For these reasons, the new constitution might not be "sustainable." A possible outcome, he said, was to get an "OK" constitution, get through the referendum, get a "government of the people" and start again (on constitutional reform.) ¶5. (C) The elections for the new government would probably take place in November or December. Charan said, "We want to BANGKOK 00001188 002 OF 002 hand back sovereignty to the people by the end of the year" through "clean elections." December 5 will be the King's 80th birthday, and a very important event for Thailand; therefore, some are pressing for elections in November, to have the new government elected and in place before then. Charan told Rapson that "most of us" did not want to see PM Thaksin ousted in a coup, but "we couldn't find any better way. Maybe we're too stupid..." Now, they are trying to return to democratic government as soon as possible, he repeated. ¶6. (C) Comment: Charan is well-regarded by the NGO community; he is viewed as a fair and accomplished jurist. From his account, it is clear that there are still a number of major issues to be worked out in the draft constitution. It does not appear, as some feared, that the coup leaders have their own draft which they are pushing from behind the scenes, but it will be a while yet before we can get a clear idea of shape of the new constitution, and what influences are being brought to bear on the drafters. For Charan, at least, it appears that pragmatism is a key consideration -- get the best text possible under these difficult circumstances, and don't be surprised if Thailand's 18th Constitution doesn't last very long. End comment. ¶7. (U) EAP/MLS Director Rapson cleared this cable. BOYCE