LONG-AWAITED MALIAN CABINET SHUFFLE APPEARS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAMAKO 000074 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV ML SUBJECT: LONG-AWAITED MALIAN CABINET SHUFFLE APPEARS IMMINENT Classified By: Political Officer Glenn Fedzer for reason 1.4 (B) ¶1. (U) A long-anticipated cabinet reshuffle may finally be here, according to a recent article likely written by Minister of Communications Gaoussou Drabo. The article, under the pseudonym "Khalifa," indicated that "things should clarify soon" and enter the terminal phase of the pre-electoral period. The wait for the shuffle has been a source of tension, as President Amadou Toumani Toure (ATT) reportedly promised government posts in a reshuffled cabinet to parties who joined ATT's Alliance for Democracy (ADP) a coalition created to support ATT's re-election campaign. More than a month after 14 parties signed on to the ADP, however, all of ATT's Ministers remain in place. 2.(C) One reason for the delay may have been the defection of PARENA from the Presidential camp. PARENA struck an agreement with ATT that delivered PARENA's second round endorsement in return for certain post-election concessions and one Ministerial post in 2002, but party president Tiebele Drame has since fallen out with the President. On January 6 PARENA announced that the party would not join the ADP. Drame, a former Foreign Minister under Alpha Oumar Konare, later told the Embassy that ATT personally asked him to reconsider PARENA's declaration, and promised that he would reshuffle his cabinet "tomorrow" if PARENA signed onto the ADP. ¶3. (C) The cabinet shuffle, regardless if it goes forward with or without PARENA, will likely paint the battle lines for the election to come. Significantly, ATT will campaign without the support of many of his allies from the second round of 2002, including PARENA, National Assembly President Ibrahim Boubacar Keita (IBK) and his Rally for Mali (RPM), and a sizable chunk of ADEMA, now being pulled apart between ATT loyalists and those who support "independent" candidate Soumeylou Boubeye Maiga (septel). ADEMA's implosion makes the Union for the Republic and Democracy (URD) the main force within the ADP. Ironically, URD founder Soumaila Cisse was ATT's second round opponent in 2002. URD leaders said joining the ADP was a conscious decision by Cisse to bide his time and wait for a chance to follow ATT as President in ¶2012. With opposition from some of his former friends and only tepid support from his former enemies, the Cabinet shuffle may prove ATT's best chance to lock in his remaining allies heading into April's first electoral round. MCCULLEY