FURTHER IRANIAN REACTION TO THE QABALA RADAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000754

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/14/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL MNUC OPRC PARM IR AJ
SUBJECT: FURTHER IRANIAN REACTION TO THE QABALA RADAR

REF: BAKU 719

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Classified By: DCM Donald Lu for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d)


1. (C) Summary: One week after Russia's proposal to make
its Qabala radar station available for joint use with the
U.S., Iranian reaction to the proposal remains fairly muted.
While some members of the Majlis have criticized the
announcement, the response of the Iranian executive branch
has been more restrained, focusing primarily on the
European-based missile defense system the U.S. has proposed.
The Iranian media has also largely avoided the topic, with
most influential daily newspapers focusing on either economic
issues or cyclone Gonu. Embassy contacts, including
Azerbaijani Minister of Defense Abiyev, National Security
Advisor Aliyev, and a range of independent analysts, suggest
that Iran's muted response indicates prior coordination with
Russia on this issue. End Summary.


2. (SBU) One week after Russia's proposal to make its Qabala
radar station available for joint use with the U.S., Iranian
reaction to the proposal remains fairly muted with most
criticism emanating from the Iranian Majlis. In a special
statement, the Majlis reportedly pronounced "Iran will not
permit itself to be turned into an instrument for resolving
conflicts between world powers." Individual Members of
Parliament (MP) went much further, with MP Ali Ahmadi, a
member of the National Security Commission, quoted in Iran
Newspaper on June 12 as saying "Iran must not remain quiet in
the face of this action, but must confront it decisively."
MP Hassan Abbasi is quoted in the same article, saying "the
Russian proposal was inconsistent with Iran's national and
strategic interests" and that "Iran's Majlis did not have
such an expectation of its unkind neighbor."


3. (SBU) Reaction from Iran's executive branch has been more
restrained, focusing primarily on the European-based missile
defense system the U.S. has proposed. On June 8, Iranian
Seher Television (broadcast to Azerbaijan in Azeri) reported
that while Tehran's Friday prayer leader Ayatollah Mohammad
Emami-Kashani had condemned U.S. plans to station a missile
defense system in Europe, noting that Iran did not have
missiles capable of reaching Europe. Kashani's condemnation
was also reported by the Tehran Voice of the Islamic Republic
of Iran's External Service in Arabic, with Kashani saying
that the U.S. missile shield was actually designed for Russia
and China, not Iran. Kashani reportedly made no reference to
the Qabala-based radar. Commenting on the Russian proposal
on June 11, Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki told the Iranian
Students News Service (ISNA) that Iran did not regard U.S.
joint use of the Qabala radar as a threat to the Islamic
Republic. Saying that "Iran has nothing to hide and
everything is clear about this country," Mottaki went on to
say, "It is obvious that this is a made up clash between the
two world powers and therefore we are investigating the
issue."


4. (SBU) While the major Iranian dailies such as Kayhan or
Resalat chose to lead with stories focusing either on
economic issues or cyclone Gonu on June 9, a number of
papers, both reformist and hardline, criticized the Russian
proposal; some characterized it as "anti-Iran." Reformist
Mardom Salari and centrist Ebtekar newspapers criticized the
proposal, with Ebtekar calling the proposal "controversial."
An editorial in reformist Aftab was equally critical,
suggesting that Russia had "become bolder than the Americans
against Iran." Articles appearing later in the week also
questioned Russia's sincerity as an ally, with a June 12
article on Tehran's Mehr News Agency website asking "By
allowing the deployment of U.S. forces so near to the Iranian
border, would Russia not be breaking its alliance with Iran?"
This same article concluded by asking "and doesn't this make
it clear that Russia has no qualms about using Iran to
neutralize the threats of the United States?"


5. (C) Embassy Baku Iranian contacts have had little
reaction to the Russian proposal. Their relative lack of
reaction is in marked contrast to the Embassy's Azerbaijani
contacts, who continue to speculate about the "real" reasons
behind Putin's proposal and what they may mean for
Azerbaijan's future. Because most of our Iranian contacts
are ethnic Azeris who seem to view developments in or
involving Iran only through the prism of the ethnic Azeri
cause, their indifference to Putin's proposal may be due to
the lack of connection to their own separatist agendas.


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6. (C) Comment: It is possible that the Iranian
government's display of restraint in response to Russia's
proposal reflects an eagerness not to anger its ally.
Embassy contacts, including Azerbaijani Minister of Defense
Abiyev, National Security Advisor Aliyev, and a range of
independent analysts, have suggested that Iran's muted
response to Russia's proposal indicates prior coordination
with Russia on this issue. The timeliness and tone of the
Baku Iranian Embassy's press statement in response to the
proposal (reftel) seems to support this theory. End Comment.
DERSE