PRESIDENT ALIYEV CONFIRMS SUPPORT FOR THE GABALA

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000721 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR A/S FRIED E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2017 TAGS: PREL MARR MNUC OPRC PARM RU IR AJ SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV CONFIRMS SUPPORT FOR THE GABALA RADAR PROPOSAL Classified By: Charge d'Affaires Donald Lu per 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) Summary: After briefing President Aliyev on his June 8 meeting with the Charge d'Affaires, Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov informed us that "in principle, all is good." President Aliyev told Mammadov that if the process of discussing Putin's proposal to bring the Gabala radar station into the missile defense system continues, Azerbaijan will support the process. In his earlier discussions with the Charge, Mammadov emphasized the risks that any missile defense cooperation would pose to Azerbaijan's security. According to Mammadov, Iran believes that Azerbaijan has been planning missile defense cooperation with the United States for a long time; he fears that, without the West behind it, Azerbaijan will be vulnerable to retaliation from Iran. Mammadov said Azerbaijan would expect the support of the United States in dealing with this threat. End summary. President Aliyev Supports -------------- ¶2. (C) Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov phoned the Charge to communicate that he had met with President Aliyev about the issue of the Russian Gabala Radar proposal and that, "in principle, all is good" with the President. President Aliyev told Mammadov that if the process of discussing this proposal continues, Azerbaijan will support the process. ¶3. (C) Mammadov added that he would not speak over an open phone line about the dangers he had discussed earlier with Charge (i.e., the risk of Iranian retaliation),but that Azerbaijan would expect the support of the United States in facing these threats. He added that while President Aliyev supported discussion of the Gabala radar proposal, he was not sure what the reaction would be in Azerbaijan to the continued U.S. position favoring deployment of radar and interceptor missiles in the Czech Republic and Poland. ¶4. (C) In an earlier June 8 meeting, the Charge briefed Mammadov on USG reaction to President Putin's proposal that the Gabala radar be incorporated into the missile defense system. Drawing on NSA Hadley's June 7 press availability, Charge emphasized that the United States viewed Putin's proposal as a positive development, as it indicated that the Russians recognized the global threat posed by missile proliferation and are now willing to work with the international community to counter this threat. Charge underscored that the United States deeply values its cooperation with Azerbaijan and respects its sovereignty and integrity; as NSA Hadley said, Azerbaijan must be able to make decisions and act in a sovereign way. The Charge also encouraged Mammadov to stay in close touch with the Embassy and to coordinate any public statements on this issue. Reaction in Tehran -------------- ¶5. (C) Mammadov said that Putin's proposal is a "critical issue" for Azerbaijan. Whether or not the Gabala radar is incorporated into the Missile Defense system, the mere fact of Putin's proposal will have serious implications for Azerbaijan's security. Mammadov said that the Azerbaijani Embassy in Tehran already had received inquiries from the Iranian Government about Putin's proposal, suggesting that Azerbaijan had been preparing to cooperate with the U.S. on missile defense "for a long time." According to Mammadov, Iranian President Ahmadinejad previously had discussed missile defense with the Azerbaijani Government in hopes of preventing any Azerbaijani cooperation with the United States. Ahmadinejad has been pushing hard recently for another state visit to Azerbaijan; Putin's proposal will only make the Iranians try harder, as it will confirm the Iranians' belief that they are the target of the proposed missile defense system. Mammadov predicted that Iranian pressure on Azerbaijan would only increase during the long period of discussions required to address Putin's proposal. With a wry laugh, Mammadov said that Iran will now "forget about Israel" and turn its sights on Azerbaijan. ¶6. (C) Expounding on the complexities of Putin's proposal, BAKU 00000721 002 OF 002 Mammadov noted that the U.S.-Azerbaijani relationship is quite different from the partnership that exists with Poland and the Czech Republic. Azerbaijan's participation in any missile defense system would increase the risks to its security, as it does not have the protection of the NATO alliance behind its decisions. Azerbaijan's proximity to Iran makes it extremely vulnerable to Iranian pressures, Mammadov said. Recalling the incident in 2001 when Iranian gunboats threatened BP exploratory vessels in the Caspian, Mammadov said that "no one" objected to this "inappropriate interference." Yet in spite of these risks, Mammadov said that Azerbaijan "cannot not participate" in the missile defense system, as the system is designed to counter Iranian missile threats. And Putin's June 7 statements, Mammadov noted, already launched Azerbaijan into international discussions of the missile defense system. Dissatisfaction with the Russian Announcement -------------- ¶7. (C) Mammadov said that Azerbaijan "had information from Lavrov" regarding Russia's proposal for the Gabala radar station, but had been "put in a bad situation by the way Putin acted." Mammadov hinted that Putin had put a very different spin on his conversation with Aliyev, telling us that the two presidents' conversation "had not been a consultative discussion." Azerbaijan's position, Mammadov said, has been "complicated by Putin's statements." Acknowledging that he did not know whether the two presidents had in fact discussed missile defense as Putin publicly stated, Mammadov said "there most probably was a telephone call, as Putin was not likely to lie." Mammadov again confirmed that Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov had raised the issue with Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov during Lavrov's May 21-22 visit to Baku. LU