AZERBAIJANIS SURPRISED BY PUTIN'S OFFER TO SHARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000718 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR MASS PINS RU IR AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJANIS SURPRISED BY PUTIN'S OFFER TO SHARE RADAR; INITIAL REACTION POSITIVE Classified By: CHARGE D'AFFAIRES DONALD LU PER 1.4(B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Russian President Vladimir Putin's statement proposing joint U.S.-Russian use of Azerbaijan's Gabala radar station provoked a surprised but largely positive reaction among Azerbaijani politicians and analysts. All contacts with whom we spoke believed that cooperation between the U.S. and Russia would have positive results for Azerbaijan, from an economic, political, and military standpoint. Although some would prefer the radar station to be closed, they agreed that joint U.S.-Russian use of the facility would be better than sole Russian use. Many contacts with whom we spoke said that such cooperation would provoke a strong negative reaction from Iran, with some noting that it could have a ripple effect in the Muslim world. None were sure why Putin chose to make such an offer now, and a key Member of Parliament questioned whether Putin was sincere. So far, these developments have been largely unnoticed by the general population. END SUMMARY ¶2. (C) Russian President Vladimir Putin's June 7 public statement on the heels of the G-8 summit in Germany, in which he proposed joint U.S.-Russian use of Azerbaijan's northern Gabala radar station, provoked a surprised but largely positive reaction among Azerbaijan's political class. The statement seemed to take many by surprise, including Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov, who immediately told the press that the Gabala radar station is Azerbaijan's property, and that Azerbaijan must be consulted regarding its use. Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov later publicly stated that Azerbaijan is ready for bilateral and multilateral discussions with the U.S. and Russia regarding Putin's proposal. THE VIEW FROM PARLIAMENT -------------- ¶3. (C) Ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party Member of Parliament (MP) - and Chair of Parliament's International Relations Commission - Samad Seyidov said that two factors played into Putin's decision to make this offer. First, Seyidov said that Putin knows Azerbaijan has good relations with the U.S., making U.S.-Russian cooperation on Azerbaijani soil feasible. Second, Seyidov said that Putin wants to create obstacles between Azerbaijan and Iran - effectively "killing two rabbits with one shoe." However, Seyidov is not sure that Putin's offer is sincere. According to Seyidov, such an offer could seriously be considered only after long negotiations, so the GOAJ should wait until more details are available to take a firm position. ¶4. (C) Opposition Musavat Party MP Nasib Nassibli said that closing the radar station would be best for Azerbaijan, because of environmental and security concerns. However, he thinks that joint U.S.-Russian use of the radar station is a better prospect than sole Russian use, and would solidify U.S. commitment to regional security. According to Nassibli, while this joint venture would not be a cause for concern for Georgia, Armenia, or Turkey, the added U.S. presence might provoke Iran. Nassibli was surprised that Putin made this offer now, especially in light of the cool relationship between Russia and the U.S.; he thinks that Putin must feel that Russia is now in a stronger position, perhaps because of oil revenue. COMMENTS FROM THE ANALYSTS -------------- ¶5. (C) Independent political analyst Ilgar Mammadov described Putin's offer as "two elephants deciding the future of a small state." Mammadov said he was worried that Azerbaijan had not been consulted prior to the announcement, adding that he believes Foreign Minister Mammadyarov was forced to react immediately. According to Mammadov, joint U.S.-Russian use of the Gabala radar station would cause other Muslim states to believe that Azerbaijan was being used to target them. Mammadov feels that a joint venture would be better located in a non-Muslim country, perhaps in Georgia. He also echoed many Azerbaijanis' previous concerns regarding the radar's negative environmental impact. On the positive side, Mammadov said that U.S.-Russian cooperative use of this station would raise Azerbaijan's international profile, and stimulate more interest in the country's domestic politics. Mammadov said that the fact Russia offered use of the radar station to the U.S. was significant, as previously Russia operated as if the South Caucasus were its own territory. ¶6. (C) Political analyst Dadash Alishov said that while joint use of the radar facility would be beneficial for Azerbaijan, BAKU 00000718 002 OF 003 he believes that Azerbaijan should be included in the discussion. However, he suspects that the U.S., Russia, and Azerbaijan came to an unofficial agreement before Putin's public offer to share the station. Alishov said that in addition to potential financial benefits, this joint venture would further integrate Azerbaijan into Euro-Atlantic structures. He believes it would also give Azerbaijan an opportunity to play a bigger regional role, as it would have a direct influence on Russia's security. Alishov anticipates a strong Iranian reaction to the offer. ¶7. (C) Independent analyst Rasim Musabeyov said that Putin's offer was intended to probe reaction, but that the information is nothing new: it has been in the Russian media for about a month. He believes that Azerbaijan would benefit from joint U.S.-Russian use of the radar station, through greater security and through more support from both sides for Azerbaijan's territorial integrity. Musabeyov said that such an agreement might also affect the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations; perhaps greater cooperation with Azerbaijan would result in Russia pushing Armenia to be more constructive. According to Musabeyov, if Russia and the U.S. agree to share this facility, it would indicate that the West is ready to accept Russia. ¶8. (U) Eldar Namazov, an independent analyst and leader of the Yeni Siyaset bloc, told the press that joint U.S.-Russian use of the station would be in Azerbaijan's interests, particularly if it became a platform for future cooperation between the two. However, he pointed out that it will in fact be trilateral cooperation because Azerbaijan owns the station. Namazov believes that the proposed cooperation is important for Azerbaijan both politically and from a military standpoint, and that the GOAJ is interesting in further discussing the matter. ACCORDING TO THE OPPOSITION -------------- ¶9. (C) Popular Front Party Deputy Chair Fuad Mustafayev said that if joint U.S.-Russian use of the Gabala radar station would increase Azerbaijan's security and give Azerbaijan a greater regional role, then it would be beneficial. However, he is not sure that Azerbaijan's welfare is what Putin has in mind; in fact, he believes that Russia's attitude towards Azerbaijan would suggest otherwise. Mustafayev believes that Russia is attempting to exert more control over the region, which he believes will spur Iran to become more aggressive towards Azerbaijan. ¶10. (C) Musavat Party Deputy Chair Sulhaddin Akbar said that Putin's statement is not new information, and he believes the three governments have been discussing the future of the Gabala radar station for some time. Regardless, Akbar feels strongly that Azerbaijan must be consulted before a decision is made. He said that further cooperation with the U.S. meshes nicely with Musavat's platform, and that such cooperation will ensure Azerbaijan's security and strategic regional position. Akbar noted that joint U.S.-Russian cooperation could have a positive impact on the Nagorno-Karabakh negotiations. He also cautioned that the U.S. and Russia should consider the potential Iranian reaction. ¶11. (C) Azerbaijan Liberal Party Deputy Chair Avaz Tamirkhan believes that if the U.S. and Russia agree to joint use of the radar station, it will have positive ramifications, but without an agreement, there will be more contention between the two countries. Tamirkhan said that Putin's statement was strategic, intended to signify that Russia is in the position to decide whether the U.S. can be active in Azerbaijan. While Putin's offer seems to have been a sign of good will, Tamirkhan feels that it is another example of Russia strengthening its presence in Azerbaijan. Conversely, he said that the U.S. is not in a position to force Russia out of Azerbaijan, and that Azerbaijan should have more of a say in its fate. Tamirkhan concluded that he did not believe an agreement between the U.S. and Russia on the use of this station can be reached. TALK ON THE STREETS -------------- ¶12. (C) Average Azerbaijani citizens do not seem to be very aware of these developments, but when pressed, their reaction is largely positive. Several young Azerbaijanis either had not heard anything about Putin's statement, or did not have an opinion on the matter. A returned Muskie scholar said that greater cooperation with the U.S. is always beneficial BAKU 00000718 003 OF 003 for Azerbaijan; he could see no negative repercussions, while noting that there would be certain economic benefits for Azerbaijan should Russia and the U.S. proceed with the joint venture. A local employee of one international organization believes that if the U.S. decides to cooperate with Russia, it would be to target Iran, in which case Azerbaijan's preference does not matter. A young security specialist said that Putin made this offer only because the Gabala radar station is antiquated and therefore not very significant to Russian interests. Another young man who works in the commercial sector believes that the GOAJ must have agreed to joint use of the station prior to Putin's statement. He cautioned, however, that U.S.-Russian cooperative use of the radar may negatively affect Azerbaijan's regional relationships. LU