JOSEPH WOOD'S MEETING WITH ISLAMIC ANALYSTS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000700

SIPDIS

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FOR EUR/CARC; PLEASE PASS TO JOSEPH WOOD AT THE OVPC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/06/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM KISL AJ
SUBJECT: JOSEPH WOOD'S MEETING WITH ISLAMIC ANALYSTS


Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b, d)


1. (C) Summary: Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for
National Security Affairs Joseph Wood and the Ambassador met
with local Islamic analysts on May 30. The analysts agreed
that Islamic observance is growing in Azerbaijan,
particularly among the youth. The growth of Islam is in part
a natural rediscovery of Azerbaijani's cultural and religious
identity, although some external forces -- particularly from
Iran, Turkey, and Arab countries and the North Caucasus --
are influencing this process. The spread of Wahhabism is the
most prolific foreign influence, especially because Wahhabis
have well-developed outreach plans and funding sources,
according to the analysts. Local analysts highlighted that a
religious vacuum exists because there are limited
opportunities for Azerbaijanis to learn about Islamic
theology and practice, and especially, moderate forms of
Islam. One local analyst also highlighted the rising number
of heated disagreements among Muslims as a disturbing trend.
End Summary.


2. (SBU) Deputy Assistant to the Vice President for National
Security Affairs Joseph Wood and the Ambassador met with
local Islamic analysts on May 30. Participants included:
Dr. Altay Geyushov, Baku State University professor
Dr. Naile Suleymanova, Azerbaijan National Academy of Science
Aysel Vezirova, Eurasia Foundation
Dr. Arif Yunus, Institute of Peace and Democracy

Islamic Practice Rising
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3. (C) All participants agreed that in general, Islamic
observance has been growing in Azerbaijan since independence
in 1991. Yunus and Vezirova noted that a key demographic
segment to monitor is youth, who have little or no experience
living under the former Soviet system. Geyushov argued that
the Azerbaijan population is in the midst of a natural,
long-term rediscovery of their religious and cultural
identity. In comparison to the North Caucasus and Central
Asia, however, Islamic observance in Azerbaijan is growing at
a slower rate, according to Geyushov. In addition to
indigenous Islam, there are three major sources of foreign
religious influence in Azerbaijan: Shiism from Iran, the
Nurcu movement from Turkey, and Wahhabism from Arab countries
and the North Caucasus region.

Theological Knowledge Gap
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4. (C) Participants acknowledged a common theme: there is a
dearth of information and quality literature on Islam in
Azerbaijan, and especially more moderate forms of Islam.
Many Azerbaijani Muslims are unable to learn about Islam from
available literature or from their local imams. They are
particularly vulnerable therefore to influence from more
active, more radical, Islamic representatives. This trend is
exacerbated, in part, by the GOAJ's effort to regulate the
distribution of religious materials. In the words of
Veziorva, "the state seeks to centralize the dissemination of
religious knowledge, but it has failed."


5. (C) Yunus and Geyushov observed that Wahhabism has been
able to spread because it possesses a strong financial base
and a robust propaganda machine. Wahhabism also is growing
in appeal as an alternative ideology or "third-way" for
Azerbaijanis who do not favor a pro-Western or pro-Russian
orientation for Azerbaijan, Yunus noted. In particular,
Wahhabism focuses on those Azerbaijanis who are disenchanted
with Azerbaijan's move toward the West. Yunus explained that
many Azerbaijanis perceive the presence of Western oil
companies, changing social morals and traditions, and the
GOAJ's level of corruption as a consequence of Azerbaijan's
western orientation. Wahhabism first gained a base among
minorities living in the northern part of Azerbaijan,
although Wahhabism is making inroads among Azerbaijanis
living in major cities, according to Yunus. In addition to
Wahhabism, some participants acknowledged the steady growth
of the Nurcu Islamic movement in Azerbaijan, particularly
through the schools they have established here, which offer a
good education, in contrast to Azerbaijan's deteriorating and
corrupt public school system. Many Azerbaijanis do not
understand the religious influence the Nurcu movement is
gaining through the schools, in the view of the analysts. As
most local contacts tell us, however, the analysts focused on
Wahhabism as a more nefarious and powerful external religious
force.

Interconfessional Disagreements Increasing
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6. (C) Vezirova said there is a disturbing trend of heated
disagreements among learned Azerbaijani Muslims. Geyushov
and others agreed that while most Azerbaijanis are ignorant
of the differences between Sunni and Shia believers, there is
an increased differentiation among educated Azerbaijani Sunni
and Shia believers. Vezirova remarked that there has been a
rise in the number of educated Azerbaijani having
sophisticated theological arguments on internet sites.
Vezirova argued that there is a need to teach the "ethics of
disagreement" amongst Azerbaijani Muslims, a tradition that
is in keeping with Islamic history.

Comment
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7. (C) We agree with these local analysts that there is a
religious void within Azerbaijan, which active, more radical
local Islamic representatives are moving to fill in the
absence of information and literature on moderate forms of
Islam. We believe we can influence the trend here, but it
requires focused attention and active engagement to promote
contact with moderate forms of Islam for newly observant
Azerbaijanis. The Ambassador has reached out to a range of
U.S. Islamic groups to offer to facilitate contact. The
recent visits of Farah Pandith and Dr. Liyakat Takim were
helpful in identifying other steps. We welcome continued
engagement and support from the Department on this key issue.
Today's youth are more religiously observant, and we will
continue to engage with them to understand how they are
gaining knowledge about their Islamic faith. Two DRL-funded
projects with the Eurasia Foundation and Internews are
opportunities to broaden our engagement with and
understanding of Azerbaijani Muslims.
DERSE