AZERBAIJAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ON UNSCR 1737

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000069 SIPDIS SIPDIS NEA, EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2016 TAGS: MNUC KNNP PGOV PREL IR AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN'S DEPUTY FOREIGN MINISTER ON UNSCR 1737 REF: A. 06 SECSTATE 202585 ¶B. BAKU 01582 ¶C. BAKU 01533 ¶D. BAKU 01835 Classified By: DCM Jason P. Hyland per reasons 1.4 (B, D) ¶1. (C) Summary: In response to ref A demarche on UNSCR 1737, Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov told then-Charge that "we are of course not going to reject the resolution." However, echoing comments we hear increasingly from colleagues throughout the GOAJ, Azimov said Azerbaijan feels threatened by Iran and is nervous about the potential negative impact to Azerbaijan of potential sanctions against Iran. Azimov repeated President Aliyev,s December 22 statement that the GOAJ does not support sanctions against Iran. Azimov said the MFA is preparing an analysis on the consequences of potential sanctions, to be briefed to President Aliyev soon; he also said the GOAJ is studying the annex. We reminded Azimov that the US expects all UN member states to implement the resolution. End Summary. Azimov Responds to UNSCR 1737 -------------- ¶2. (C) Then-Charge d'Affaires delivered reftel demarche concerning UNSCR 1737 on halting Iran's nuclear efforts to Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov on January 10. Azimov said "we are of course not going to reject the resolution." At the same time, the GOAJ is nervous about the potential negative impact that sanctions against Iran could have on Azerbaijan. Azimov reiterated President Aliyev's repeated public statements -- most recently on December 22 -- that the GOAJ does not support sanctions against Iran. Azimov observed that Azerbaijan is in a "unique situation," and the GOAJ must calculate the potential risks caused by sanctions. Azimov told Charge that a group of MFA experts is preparing a report on the implications to Azerbaijan of Iran sanctions. These experts' findings will eventually be briefed to President Aliyev. Azimov also noted that the team will be studying the annexes to the resolution. ¶3. (C) Azimov elaborated several factors influencing the GOAJ's position toward the resolution, points which the President and Foreign Minister have made previously to the Ambassador were echoed by Deputy Foreign Minister Khalafov in a separate January 12 meeting with A/DCM (refs B and D): -- Azerbaijan currently feels threatened by Iran, even if Tehran does not acquire a nuclear weapon. Azimov suggested that Azerbaijan's interests are threatened regardless of whether Iran acquires nuclear weapons. -- Azimov said Azerbaijan is located in a difficult geographical neighborhood. Specifically, Azerbaijan's security is "profoundly linked" to conditions in Iran, particularly given the two countries' shared 1,000 kilometer border. (Comment: The border is approximately 611 kilometers, including Nakhchivan and occupied territories, according to the CIA's World Factbook.) The GOAJ is concerned that potential sanctions or military action against Iran could create a range of difficulties for Azerbaijan, including a humanitarian crisis or Iranian "paybacks" against Azerbaijan, in the form of terrorist operations or attacks against Azerbaijani oil platforms in the Caspian Sea. -- The GOAJ's position toward Iran, according to Azimov, is that all developments should be peaceful. While acknowledging the need to pressure Iran, Azimov said that the GOAJ would like to see lowered tensions between Iran and members of the international community. -- The GOAJ recognizes the potential threat posed by countries gaining nuclear weapons, but a crisis with Iran could trigger serious economic problems for Azerbaijan and the world. Azimov cited local trade links along the Azerbaijan-Iran border and energy exchanges between the Azerbaijani enclave of Nakhchivan and Iran as potential areas where Azerbaijan could face economic difficulties. (Azimov remarked that in his personal view, nothing can stop nations from acquiring nuclear weapons if they are determined to do so.) -- Azimov conveyed the GOAJ's position that Iran has the right to develop peaceful use of nuclear energy. (DFM Azimov BAKU 00000069 002 OF 002 cited President Aliyev's December 22 statement to Radio Echo-Moscow that countries have the right to develop peaceful nuclear technology.) Azimov said his "personal" view is that Iran could not be dissauaded from developing a nuclear weapon, however, Azimov noted that it is "unclear" how actively Iran is pursuing a nuclear weapons program. (Comment: President Aliyev and Foreign Minister Mammadyarov have told us that Ahmadinejad is developing a nuclear weapon. End Comment) He suggested that President Ahmadinejad's very public pursuit of a nuclear program could be a "political campaign" designed to mobilize the Iranian population. Azimov said some of the Iranian regime's policies are "populist," while observing that Ahmadinejad is attempting to rally anti-US sentiments in the region and through various international fora by playing on distinctions between developed and underdeveloped states. Azimov specified that Iran is reaching out to Venezuela and Cuba as partners in this effort. ¶4. (C) Then-Charge stessed that the USG expected member states to implement the resolution and that given Azerbaijan's proximity to Iran, Azerbaijan's implementation of UNSCR 1737 would be looked at carefully by the international community. Charge also explained the need for continued high-level dialogue between the United States and Azerbaiajan on Iran. Azimov said he hoped to travel to Washington in late February for his proposed polmil consultations (septel). Comment -------------- ¶5. (C) For months now, the GOAJ has underscored to us its increasing concern with Iran and the potential implications for Azerbaijan of heightened tensions over the nuclear issue. The need for intensified dialogue on Iran with the GOAJ is increasingly urgent to secure maximum GOAJ cooperation. DERSE