AZERBAIJAN/OSCE: FM MAMMADYAROV DISCUSSES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000458

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS PHUM KDEM KCOR AM IR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN/OSCE: FM MAMMADYAROV DISCUSSES
AZERBAIJAN'S DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT, N-K, AND IRAN WITH
USOSCE AMBASSADOR FINLEY

Classified By: AMBASSADOR ANNE E. DERSE PER 1.4(B,D)


1. (C) SUMMARY: During a March 28 meeting with visiting
USOSCE Ambassador Finley, Foreign Minister Mammadyarov was
upbeat about his recent visit to Washington but thought
critics should acknowledge more Azerbaijan's steady
democratic progress. Mammadyarov said political dialogue
between opposition and ruling parties and civic education
would improve the election climate; adding that the
internationals place too much focus on the composition of
election commissions. Mammadyarov worried that the sudden
death of the Armenian Prime Minister would hurt the
negotiations, which he feared Russia would undermine in the
long run. Worried about increasing Iranian immigration,
Mammadyarov said the GOAJ was focusing on the nascent rise of
religious extremism. Mammadyarov assured Ambassador Finley
that the GOAJ managed transparently its bonanza oil revenue
and promised heightened anti-corruption efforts. The Foreign
Minister said the GOAJ supported Kazakhstan's bid for
Chairmanship of the OSCE. END SUMMARY

DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT AND POLITICAL DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (C) In his March 28 meeting with visiting Julie Finley,
U.S. Ambassador to the Organization for Security and
Cooperation in Europe (OSCE),Foreign Minister Mammadyarov
was upbeat about his recent trip to Washington. He said it
would take three generations for Azerbaijan to reach
President Aliyev's goal of a secular Muslim state based on
democratic principles. Critics needed to take Azerbaijan's
history and the mentality of the people when passing
judgment. He pushed back on concerns DRL A/S Lowenkron and
NGO representatives had noted about Azerbaijan's
democratization, arguing that individual problem cases did
not mean Azerbaijan was failing to make steady progress.
Ambassador Finley reminded Mammadyarov that allies of
Azerbaijan would continue pushing the GOAJ ahead because we
all want Azerbaijan to succeed. Regarding the domestic
political situation, Mammadyarov agreed Azerbaijan had to
develop a culture of dialogue between opposition and ruling
parties. He agreed with Ambassador Finley that the B
aku OSCE office should create a framework for dialogue and
play the role of moderator, rather than lecturing.
Mammadyarov noted that the GOAJ had initiated discussions
with civil society in the past, citing as an example the
joint commission between the GOAJ and NGOs on political
prisoners two years ago. According to Mammadyarov, the
President has pardoned some political prisoners that the
commission had identified. He said that he would like to
solicit public opinion on Azerbaijan's Euro-Atlantic
integration, particularly on the European neighborhood
policy.

ELECTORAL REFORM
--------------


3. (C) Turning to Azerbaijani elections, the Foreign Minister
said that Americans often "view the glass as half empty,"
while the GOAJ believes it has made real progress. The
international community focuses too much on the composition
of election commissions and changes to the Electoral Code. He
supported non-partisan composition of the election commission
rather than including the opposition parties, who he views
have a "friend or enemy" mentality. Mammadyarov emphasized
that civic education was as important as elections and was a
top priority. He believed Azerbaijan's success lay in
teaching Azerbaijan's youth to respect democratic values,
rule of law, good governance, and respect for human rights.

NAGORNO-KARABAKH NEGOTIATIONS
--------------


4. (C) Mammadyarov implied that the "sudden death" (his
quotes) of Armenian Prime Minister Andranik Markarian was
suspicious and worried it would negatively affect the Minsk
Group negotiations. Mammadyarov told Ambassador Finley that
he does not believe the Armenian side was sincerely
negotiating a settlement. The Armenian President Robert
Kocharian wants his legacy to be "victor" in NK. Mammadyarov
believed Russia would accept moving to the first stage of a
solution because Russia also cannot support the "ethnic
cleansing" that occurred and wants to avoid an ongoing
occupation; but, he said, Russia is not interested in moving
past the first stage. Mammadyarov suggested that Russia's
real interest remains protecting Armenia as a strategic
partner and outpost to maintain control of the southern
Caucasus. He concluded that the Armenian diaspora should
press for a solution to save Armenia from poverty and
irrelevance.

BAKU 00000458 002 OF 002



IRAN AND RELIGIOUS EXTREMISM
--------------


5. (C) The Foreign Minister took a serious tone when he said
that Azerbaijan has to "keep an eye on its neighbor to the
south," Iran. Since they started issuing visas to Iranians,
the GOAJ has tracked an increasing number of Iranians
crossing the border. He speculated they were coming to escape
the results of recent UN Security Council resolutions,
international sanctions, and the increasing price of real
estate in Iran. Mammadyarov said that this is the primary
reason President Aliyev established the State Commission on
Immigration, and that the GOAJ is working on an action plan
to address the increased migration flow. Responding to
Ambassador Finley's question on the extent of religious
extremism in Azerbaijan, Mammadyarov said that traditional
Azerbaijan culture was strongly secular and that the GOAJ was
addressing carefully emerging incidents of extremism so as to
avoid upsetting the status quo.

MANAGING THE OIL WEALTH - IT'S A MATTER OF TIME
-------------- --


6. (C) Ambassador Finley urged the GOAJ to stay focused and
move ahead wisely when managing its oil income, as it could
last only twenty years or so, according to the experts.
Corruption at the top could derail all hopes, she said.
Mammadyarov insisted that Azerbaijan manages its oil revenue
transparently through the oil fund that international
auditors check regularly. Mammadyarov said that the process
of eliminating corruption is psychological, and that while
most GOAJ agencies have made efforts to reduce bribery, they
need to move to the next level of fighting corruption. He
noted that the GOAJ has to consider two factors when
deciding how to spend the oil revenue: the difficulty that
poverty imposes on the population and the opportunities the
revenue presents to develop Azerbaijan's non-oil sectors. The
Foreign Minister listed regional transportation and tourism
as examples of growth sectors, emphasizing the need to
develop adequate infrastructure for either sector to
flourish.

KAZAKHSTAN'S BID FOR OSCE CHAIRMANSHIP
--------------


7. (C) Responding to Ambassador Finley's query about
Kazakhstan's bid for the OSCE Chairmanship, Mammadyarov said
that he thought it was a good idea to let a former CIS
country take the lead, although he understood that
Kazakhstan,s 5000 kilometer border with Russia may cause
concern for others. Ambassador Finley questioned how anyone
could support Kazakhstan in light of its blatant failure,
despite its lofty OSCE aspirations, to implement even two or
three democratic reforms. While Mammadyarov understood
Ambassador Finley's point, he thought it was best for both
Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan if Kazakhstan got the chairmanship.


8. (U) Ambassador Finley cleared this message.
DERSE