PRESIDENT ALIYEV, DRL A/S LOWENKRON DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAKU 000037 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/02/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV PHUM KDEM PBTS ENRG RU IR AJ SUBJECT: PRESIDENT ALIYEV, DRL A/S LOWENKRON DISCUSS BILATERAL RELATIONS, DEMOCRATIC DEVELOPMENT Classified By: CDA Jason P. Hyland, Reasons 1.4 (b,d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: During a December 18-19 visit to Azerbaijan, Assistant Secretary of State for Democracy, Human Rights and Labor Barry Lowenkron secured President Aliyev's agreement to launch an intensified bilateral dialogue on the development of democracy in Azerbaijan in sessions to be held at regular intervals. He also discussed bilateral relations with Foreign Minister Mammadyarov. A/S Lowenkron encouraged human rights activists to establish a national council to engage the government and civil society and facilitated agreement between the leadership of the main opposition parties and the ruling Yeni Azerbaijan Party to begin a dialogue to diffuse tensions. A/S Lowenkron also highlighted Azerbaijan's record of religious freedom and tolerance in meetings with religious leaders and heard Azerbaijani religious analysts' concerns about the development of political Islam. To underscore continuing concerns with media freedom in Azerbaijan, A/S Lowenkron met with editors and leading independent broadcaster ANS and appeared on the ANS program Point of View. In a visit and remarks carried by major media, the A/S visited the grave of murdered journalist Elmar Huseynov. This cable reports A/S Lowenkron's wide-ranging introductory discussion with President Aliyev on the bilateral relationship, Azerbaijan's democratic development, including the political process, corruption and human rights, relations with Russia and Iran and energy. Septels report A/S Lowenkron's dinner with President Aliyev and other meetings. END SUMMARY. Bilateral Relationship -------------- ¶2. (C) In an hour and half long introductory meeting on December 18 that included Foreign Minister Mammadyarov and the Ambassador (followed by a dinner, reported septel), President Aliyev told A/S Lowenkron that he is "very satisfied" with the level of bilateral relations to date and hopes relations will develop further in all areas. Recognizing A/S Lowenkron's responsibility for democracy and human rights, he underscored that "all elements of the relationship are linked, cannot be separated and all are equally important." He said he is seeking to develop the relationship "as a package." The US-Azerbaijan bilateral agenda parallels and strengthens Azerbaijan's agenda for political and economic development. A strong economic base is needed for political development; the GOAJ is seeking to address poverty and spur diversified regional development with the aim of creating a middle class that will support political transformation. "Poor countries with social problems have problems with democratic development," Aliyev said, pointing to his record of creating a half a million jobs in the last three years. Azerbaijan's goal of Euro-Atlantic integration and its "commitment to democratization" are "our choice"; Azerbaijan sees its future in its partnership with the EU and the West. Aliyev added that since his April 2006 visit to Washington, important developments with both the EU and NATO reflect this policy direction. ¶3. (C) Azerbaijan sees itself as a strong partner of the US and the anti-terror coalition, Aliyev said, noting that "really dangerous people" have been captured in Azerbaijan, contributing to US and EU security. The fact that Azerbaijani soldiers are serving in Iraq creates problems for Azerbaijan with Muslim countries. "We are doing it only to stay close to the US - that's the reality," Aliyev said. ¶4. (C) A/S Lowenkron appreciated Aliyev's recognition that the political/security, energy/economic and democracy elements of our relationship are inter-related, and said the US attaches importance to Aliyev's statement in Washington about his commitment to build a democratic future for Azerbaijan. The US appreciates Azerbaijan's cooperation in the global war on terror and with peacekeepers. Azerbaijan is a model of a secular Muslim state that can exercise leadership in the region and beyond. There is potential for growth in the bilateral relationship, and in particular, for following up on the promotion of democracy. He noted Secretary Rice's interest not in typecasting countries as SIPDIS "good" or "bad" with respect to democratic development but rather, in assessing whether a country's trajectory on democracy is positive with respect to the electoral process, governance, and the engagement of civil society. Noting that there is no exact formula and rarely a smooth path for BAKU 00000037 002 OF 005 democratic development, Lowenkron said this trip was the beginning of an ongoing dialogue and asked Aliyev how we can work together on Azerbaijan's democratic development going forward. ¶5. (C) Stating that "US-Azerbaijan relations for me are very important," Aliyev said that it is key "to be in touch all the time, exchanging visits and delegations." Long periods without active contacts are unhelpful; it is important to understand each others' point of view. "Partners need to be open and work closely on all the elements" of the relationship, and "judge the situation not only based on Freedom House or Transparency International's" assessments, which are not always "100 percent correct." Aliyev noted that he had met in Washington with the NGOs that are most critical of Azerbaijan because it is "very important to talk; one-sided information leads to alienation." (NOTE: Over dinner later that day, Aliyev agreed to establish an ongoing dialogue on democracy. See septel.) Russia and Iran -------------- ¶6. (C) Azerbaijan has a unique chance of becoming a prosperous nation, Aliyev said, but security is becoming more of a concern. The trend towards inter-religious confrontation globally is a major concern. Azerbaijan is a multi-ethnic and multi-religious society, its majority Muslim population comprising 70 percent Shia and 30 percent Sunni, but most Azerbaijanis do not make the distinction. The division developing in Iraq could become an issue for Azerbaijan "five years" in the future, however. Aliyev emphasized Azerbaijan's "difficult neighborhood" from the point of view of history and the democratic process. No neighbor of Azerbaijan is one hundred percent democratic, "even Georgia," and the situation in Iran and Russia is changing rapidly. The speed of Azerbaijan's reforms must be assessed from this perspective, Aliyev stated. Russia today is "big and ambitious," and not the same Russia of five years ago. Russia is using gas and pressure on Azerbaijani and other migrants to promote its interests in the region. Iran, similarly, is "indifferent" to international pressure, and Azerbaijan is still in conflict with Armenia. Azerbaijan "is committed to democratization - if not, we would not have signed up with the EU or NATO or the Council of Europe." But these factors are "realities we live with daily;" they impact Azerbaijan's development and need to be taken into account, Aliyev said. ¶7. (C) Aliyev said he is very concerned that in his recent meetings with Russian president Putin he got a feeling that Putin believes it is possible for Russia to do anything with impunity and without deterrence or practical respect for human rights or the democratic process. Russia is very comfortable and is "taking advantage" of the situation. It is the same in Iran, he said. Ahmadinejad differs from his predecessor, who was a cultured person and an "intelligent interlocutor" with whom Aliyev could discuss education, health care, and poetry. With Ahmadinejad, we discuss only "missiles and rockets." Ahmadinejad's comments make clear there is "no deterrence" effectively being exercised on Iran. Ahmadinejad is a "closed, not an open, man - you never know what he thinks," Aliyev said. Although he is very "social" in public communications, his "strong and aggressive statements make clear he doesn't care about Iran's international reputation or public opinion at all. He is dangerous - he can do anything he wants," Aliyev said, unlike Putin, who is restrained to some degree by his participation in the G-8. ¶8. (C) Aliyev said that ten years ago he would have advised the US to "penetrate, not isolate" Iran, especially through energy projects. But now, "I think it is too late," especially after developments with Hamas in Palestine and Lebanon, and the failure of the international community to follow up on the August deadline with respect to Iran's nuclear program. This failure to act only strengthens Ahmadinejad, Aliyev said. Developments in Syria and Lebanon over the past 6-8 months also work to Iran's advantage. In short, Aliyev concluded, "any additional concession or good will will only lead to more aggression. This is very dangerous," especially since the religious and civilian leadership in Iran today is "united," and the country is "militarized." BAKU 00000037 003 OF 005 ¶9. (C) Aliyev told Lowenkron that Azerbaijan had succeeded in "indefinitely postponing a proposal from the Russian and Turkmen leaders last fall that Russia, Turkmenistan, Iran and Azerbaijan attend a Summit in Iran on Caspian delimitation, in the belief that there is nothing new on the table and a summit would only create new tensions. Failure to resolve the delimitation issue is less important once the pipelines are built, Aliyev said, and is preferable to "resolving the issue badly" in any case. Political Development -------------- ¶10. (C) Democracy is "not only elections," Aliyev said, and democratic development should not be judged on this element alone. Azerbaijan's last two elections "100 percent" reflected the popular will, despite shortcomings, on which the GOAJ is working. "Without a strong political system, strong public control and accountability and a free society," Azerbaijan's economic success will be short-lived, Aliyev said. Azerbaijan's goal is to create a strong economy, with rule of law, in which people are free and happy. The goal may be "utopic, but it is largely achievable," Aliyev maintained, "with strong political will and strong public support." ¶11. (C) A/S Lowenkron asked about Aliyev's recent call for dialogue with the opposition. Aliyev said he had called for dialogue previously, before and after the Presidential elections, with the aim of stimulating political engagement and development. The opposition took the calls as a sign of weakness and rejected them. Now in Azerbaijan there is "almost no political life, no political process," Aliyev maintained. Azerbaijan is the only former Soviet republic in which opposition leaders from the early nineties remain active. Since they are weak, this is an advantage for him as a politician, Aliyev said, but it is negative from the perspective of the political development of the country. The opposition lost the elections of 1993, 1995, and 1998 - "really lost them, despite the shortcomings" in the process, Aliyev maintained. The current opposition leaders should give way to a younger and more educated generation. "There will be no political development until the leaders change," Aliyev said, adding that it is important to "turn the page of hatred and hostility." The first signs of the opposition's response to Aliyev's call for dialogue were not positive, with some opposition leaders saying they would engage and others not, but Aliyev pledged to "make another attempt." ¶12. (C) Aliyev argued that the people of Azerbaijan when voting have not forgotten the country's turbulent early history, when there was a succession of short-lived governments and "the country almost fell apart." The Popular Front government "tortured and arrested people and committed crimes in 1992-1993." People do not forget and vote for "safety, a normally predictable life." They recognize that today Azerbaijan enjoys a rapidly developing economy, a good regional position and strength through energy projects which will secure Azerbaijan's independence and a "feeling of national dignity.' ¶13. (C) Aliyev said that some in the opposition who call themselves democrats "publish unpleasant articles attacking the US and President Bush... when they call themselves pro-Western, they are not, they cannot be - their education and communications" show something different," he maintained. "We really are trying to create a better political environment. My recent appeal (for dialogue) was based on some positive developments - some leaders of parties previously antagonistic started to meet with our people; they were branded as traitors by the oldguard, who are sitting on their chairs and keepig the hostile environment." The political proces, however, is a "two-way street," Aliyev said. he government is responsible for the economic deelopment of the country, but both the government ad the opposition must work on political development. Aliyev said with the current opposition "we don't have a serious force that can offer something different on economic development, foreign policy, not compromising Azerbaijan's territorial integrity in an NK resolution or on security issues. There is nothing in principle the opposition would do differently," instead it relies on simplistic characterizations of the opposition as "good," and the government as "bad." Human Rights BAKU 00000037 004 OF 005 -------------- ¶14. (C) A/S Lowenkron pointed to negative developments in the media, including the suspension of independent ANS TV and Radio, and on freedom of assembly and the judiciary's lack of independence, and asked Aliyev what plans he has to address these issues. Aliyev said there is "no problem" with freedom of assembly. Those wishing to hold rallies had been offered places which are "not far away." These locales have been publicly declared by the Mayor's office, Aliyev continued, and those wishing to assemble there are "absolutely free" to do so. They do not always have to meet "in front of my office or in the main square," Aliyev said. But they have refused. Referring to the November 2005 opposition rally that had been broken up violently by police, Aliyev said that "after the attempt at another Orange revolution, when the law was violated," a rally had indeed been dispersed, but "even in France when there is violence, or at G-8 meeting when anti-globalization forces attacked," rallies have been dispersed. There are problems with the judiciary because the "judges are all Soviet." The GOAJ, working with the Council of Europe, is trying to implement reforms. Judges' terms have been extended to ten years with the aim of giving them "freedom to judge," and fifty two judges selected by competitive examination would be appointed. ¶15. (C) On ANS, Aliyev said there is "no problem with the media." ANS was "never opposition media, but supportive to me." The National Television and Radio Council (NTRC) had warned ANS eight to ten times about regulatory violations, but ANS ignored the warnings, "thinking they were untouchable because they are media." This is not the case, Aliyev said. "Media, business, politics," there must be "equal rule of law to all." Once ANS realized the NTRC was serious, they resolved the issues and are back on the air with all their previous programming. There are 500 newspapers publishing in Azerbaijan, and only two or three are state-owned, Aliyev maintained. Corruption -------------- ¶16. (C) A/S Lowenkron emphasized the need to tackle corruption to support political and economic development. Aliyev replied that revenues go into the State Oil Fund transparently and are published: transparency and accountability in the Oil Fund is not an issue. The Parliament reviews budget expenditures, but more control is needed to ensure these assets are used responsibly, Aliyev acknowledged. Azerbaijan studied the Alaskan, Kuwaiti, Norwegian and other models to ensure its energy wealth is protected and not misused. Corruption exists in all the former Soviet republics. "Russia is the leader and Ukraine is number two; Transparency International's low ranking of Azerbaijan is not 100 percent correct; our neighbors are not less corrupt," Aliyev said. 75 percent of GDP is in private hands and the GOAJ seeks to limit government interference in the economy. EU integration will help, he added. Energy -------------- ¶17. (C) Energy today is "issue number one" in Azerbaijan's bilateral and multilateral relations, Aliyev said. "Only through Azerbaijan" can Europe achieve diversification of energy supply. Azerbaijan is working actively with Kazakhstan to bring the Europeans on board this effort; Minister of Economic Development Heydar Babayev recently visited Kazakhstan to discuss with the government how to bring Kazakh gas west. The US and Azerbaijan need to jointly work with the Kazakh government to win it support for this project, Aliyev stressed. The Georgian economy also depends on Azerbaijan's gas. Aliyev said that Russia was well aware of and actively seeking to oppose Azerbaijan's growing strategic role in Caspian gas supply to Europe. Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Fradkhov recently offered to buy Azerbaijani gas in lieu of Azerbaijan selling it to Europe, but "I refused," Aliyev said. Russia "openly, almost, asked us to join the anti-Georgia group," but Azerbaijan refused firmly, Aliyev added. Comment -------------- ¶18. (C) A/S Lowenkron's wide-ranging discussion with BAKU 00000037 005 OF 005 President Aliyev indicates that the latter is fully aware of the challenges facing Azerbaijan. Implementation of his plans to address these challenges of course will remain key. In this regard, President Alliyev reiterated that he views all elements of the bilateral relationship as linked, and as such, A/S Lowenkron securing his agreement to launch an intensified bilateral dialogue at regular intervals on the development of democracy in Azerbaijan is a significant achievement in our bilateral relationship. ¶19. (U) A/S Lowenkron cleared this message. HYLAND