AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT ALIYEV ON IRANIAN THREAT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000292 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AJ SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT ALIYEV ON IRANIAN THREAT, HELICOPTER INCURSION INTO GOAJ AIRSPACE REF: STATE 19372 Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In a February 27 meeting with the Ambassador, President Aliyev said that Iran was "unpredictable," and that that he saw "minimal chances for a successful resolution" of Iran's problems with the international community. He also said however that stronger international pressure on Iran could help, whereas additional concessions to Iran would only embolden them. He said he had ordered GOAJ helicopters to fly into Iranian airspace in response to Iranian violation of GOAJ airspace, to show Iran that "we will defend ourselves." He thought it unlikely that Russia would work with the USG on Iran issues, due to bilateral USG-Russian tensions. END SUMMARY. ¶2. (C) In a February 27 meeting the Ambassador discussed Iran with President Aliyev, along with regional energy issues, the NEC, and pending adoption cases (upcoming septels). ¶3. (C) Referring to recent stories in the Azerbaijan press about putative USG intentions to attack Iran, the Ambassador reviewed reftel points, stressing that, although Vice-President Cheney said in his recent statements that "nothing was off the table," the USG was not seeking confrontation with Iran and was focused on finding a diplomatic solution. The international community had made a very generous offer to the Iranians in May 2006 that was still on the table. The IRI however, had rejected a "great package" of proposed incentives from the P5 1. This package, which could be of great help to the Iranian economy, was still on the table. However, the IRI has refused to abide by UNSC 1737 and to live up to the international commitments to which it was a party. As such, the USG and the international community were meeting in London to look at additional steps that could be taken to increase the cost to Iran of their continued noncompliance. We have dispatched a second carrier group to the Persian Gulf, we are increasing our pushback on Iranian attempts to destabilize Iraq, and we are exploring options to increase pressure on Iran via the international financial system. On the positive side, we are reaching out to the Iranian people, with whom we have no animus, through a variety of programs. The Ambassador asked the President if he had further question on USG Iran policy. She said that as she had told DFM Khalafov in a recent meeting, the USG values GOAJ insights on Iran. ¶4. (C) President Aliyev said that the situation with Iran was "very complicated," and that there were "minimal chances for a successful resolution." Iran is "ignoring the international community, and they are a danger for all." Concerning the recent violation of GOAJ airspace by Iranian helicopters (septel),Aliyev said that he had given orders the previous day for three GOAJ helicopters to violate IRI airspace, which they did by flying 10 kilometers inside Iran."We showed them - we will defend ourselves," he said defiantly. ¶5. (C) Repeating that "Iran is unpredictable," Aliyev said that in a recent talk with the departing IRI Ambassador to Azerbaijan Afshar Suleymani, "even their own Ambassador doesn't know who is making decisions." According to Suleymani, the Iranian MFA seeks normal relations with the GOAJ, but other groups don't. When the Ambassador referred to the Qods Force, Aliyev said this was one of those groups "getting their own policies from Ayatollahs - they don't report to the President, the Foreign Minister; you can expect anything from them." In recent discussions with the German FM, Aliyev said that the FM said the Germans also "don't know what to do" about Iran - "all options are bad." ¶6. (C) The Ambassador asked Aliyev if he thought the power structure in the IRI was monolithic, referring to comments by DFM Khalafov to her that "there were realists" within the IRI government policymaking community. She also sought Aliyev's view on Khalafov's opinion that if Russia and China aligned more with the international community against Iran, Iran would be more likely to rethink its policies. Answering, President Aliyev said that many in the Iranian government were dissatisfied with Iran's current isolation, and "it would help" if there were stronger international pressure on Iran. He said it might be the case that Ahmadinejad might not get re-elected, but there was still two and a half years left in his term. In any case, "it is a military regime and its force is military - the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps." The Ambassador reiterated that the USG in conjunction with its allies in the international community would work on increasing the diplomatic cost to Iran for not taking the peaceful path, as the P5 were currently discussing in London. ¶7. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question as to whether there was more that the USG could do, Aliyev said that "additional concessions would only make them stronger," and "they don't want to listen." As he has noted in other conversations, he said that the USG could not count on Russia being an ally in this instance, as Putin's Munich speech shows that he does not want to help the US - "I am sure they (Russia) will not be on your side." Iran sees Russia as its strong supporter, he noted. When Iran gave gas to Georgia last winter, Russia complained directly to Iran, showing the close relationship between the two. If Iran were to lose Russia as an ally it would lose a lot, whereas the same could not be said about the possibility of Iran losing Chinese support, since China is not a big partner of Iran. Alluding to Russia's desire to help Iran as a way of "getting at" the US, Aliyev said that the strains in US-Russia relations were "leading to problems in the region." When the Ambassador pointed out that an Iran with nuclear weapons would be bad for Russia, Aliyev referred to an old Russian folktale: A Russian peasant caught a golden fish, who told the peasant that he could have one wish granted, but whatever he wished for, his neighbor would get twice as much. The Russian peasant then said, "pluck out my eye." DERSE