AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT ALIYEV ON IRANIAN THREAT,

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 000292

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/08/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN: PRESIDENT ALIYEV ON IRANIAN THREAT,
HELICOPTER INCURSION INTO GOAJ AIRSPACE

REF: STATE 19372

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse, reasons 1.4 (b,d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: In a February 27 meeting with the
Ambassador, President Aliyev said that Iran was
"unpredictable," and that that he saw "minimal chances for a
successful resolution" of Iran's problems with the
international community. He also said however that stronger
international pressure on Iran could help, whereas additional
concessions to Iran would only embolden them. He said he had
ordered GOAJ helicopters to fly into Iranian airspace in
response to Iranian violation of GOAJ airspace, to show Iran
that "we will defend ourselves." He thought it unlikely that
Russia would work with the USG on Iran issues, due to
bilateral USG-Russian tensions. END SUMMARY.


2. (C) In a February 27 meeting the Ambassador discussed Iran
with President Aliyev, along with regional energy issues, the
NEC, and pending adoption cases (upcoming septels).


3. (C) Referring to recent stories in the Azerbaijan press
about putative USG intentions to attack Iran, the Ambassador
reviewed reftel points, stressing that, although
Vice-President Cheney said in his recent statements that
"nothing was off the table," the USG was not seeking
confrontation with Iran and was focused on finding a
diplomatic solution. The international community had made a
very generous offer to the Iranians in May 2006 that was
still on the table. The IRI however, had rejected a "great
package" of proposed incentives from the P5 1. This
package, which could be of great help to the Iranian economy,
was still on the table. However, the IRI has refused to
abide by UNSC 1737 and to live up to the international
commitments to which it was a party. As such, the USG and
the international community were meeting in London to look at
additional steps that could be taken to increase the cost to
Iran of their continued noncompliance. We have dispatched a
second carrier group to the Persian Gulf, we are increasing
our pushback on Iranian attempts to destabilize Iraq, and we
are exploring options to increase pressure on Iran via the
international financial system. On the positive side, we are
reaching out to the Iranian people, with whom we have no
animus, through a variety of programs. The Ambassador asked
the President if he had further question on USG Iran policy.
She said that as she had told DFM Khalafov in a recent
meeting, the USG values GOAJ insights on Iran.


4. (C) President Aliyev said that the situation with Iran
was "very complicated," and that there were "minimal chances
for a successful resolution." Iran is "ignoring the
international community, and they are a danger for all."
Concerning the recent violation of GOAJ airspace by Iranian
helicopters (septel),Aliyev said that he had given orders
the previous day for three GOAJ helicopters to violate IRI
airspace, which they did by flying 10 kilometers inside
Iran."We showed them - we will defend ourselves," he said
defiantly.


5. (C) Repeating that "Iran is unpredictable," Aliyev said
that in a recent talk with the departing IRI Ambassador to
Azerbaijan Afshar Suleymani, "even their own Ambassador
doesn't know who is making decisions." According to
Suleymani, the Iranian MFA seeks normal relations with the
GOAJ, but other groups don't. When the Ambassador referred
to the Qods Force, Aliyev said this was one of those groups
"getting their own policies from Ayatollahs - they don't
report to the President, the Foreign Minister; you can expect
anything from them." In recent discussions with the German
FM, Aliyev said that the FM said the Germans also "don't know
what to do" about Iran - "all options are bad."


6. (C) The Ambassador asked Aliyev if he thought the power
structure in the IRI was monolithic, referring to comments by
DFM Khalafov to her that "there were realists" within the IRI
government policymaking community. She also sought Aliyev's
view on Khalafov's opinion that if Russia and China aligned
more with the international community against Iran, Iran
would be more likely to rethink its policies. Answering,
President Aliyev said that many in the Iranian government
were dissatisfied with Iran's current isolation, and "it
would help" if there were stronger international pressure on
Iran. He said it might be the case that Ahmadinejad might
not get re-elected, but there was still two and a half years
left in his term. In any case, "it is a military regime and
its force is military - the Islamic Revolutionary Guards
Corps." The Ambassador reiterated that the USG in
conjunction with its allies in the international community


would work on increasing the diplomatic cost to Iran for not
taking the peaceful path, as the P5 were currently discussing
in London.


7. (C) In response to the Ambassador's question as to
whether there was more that the USG could do, Aliyev said
that "additional concessions would only make them stronger,"
and "they don't want to listen." As he has noted in other
conversations, he said that the USG could not count on Russia
being an ally in this instance, as Putin's Munich speech
shows that he does not want to help the US - "I am sure they
(Russia) will not be on your side." Iran sees Russia as its
strong supporter, he noted. When Iran gave gas to Georgia
last winter, Russia complained directly to Iran, showing the
close relationship between the two. If Iran were to lose
Russia as an ally it would lose a lot, whereas the same could
not be said about the possibility of Iran losing Chinese
support, since China is not a big partner of Iran. Alluding
to Russia's desire to help Iran as a way of "getting at" the
US, Aliyev said that the strains in US-Russia relations were
"leading to problems in the region." When the Ambassador
pointed out that an Iran with nuclear weapons would be bad
for Russia, Aliyev referred to an old Russian folktale: A
Russian peasant caught a golden fish, who told the peasant
that he could have one wish granted, but whatever he wished
for, his neighbor would get twice as much. The Russian
peasant then said, "pluck out my eye."
DERSE