AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR ON

S E C R E T BAKU 000154 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS DEPARTMENT FOR EUR, SCA E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/01/2022 TAGS: PREL PGOV MARR ENRG AJ IR TX SUBJECT: AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT'S FOREIGN POLICY ADVISOR ON RUSSIA, TURKMENISTAN, IRAN REF: 06 BAKU 1761 Classified By: DCM JASON P. HYLAND, REASONS 1.4 B AND D ¶1. (C) Azerbaijani Presidential Foreign Policy Advisor Novruz Mammadov used a call by DCM January 23 to make comments on a wide range of policy issues. He said that relations with Russia now were very sensitive, both over the gas issue, and the issue of the large community of Azerbaijani migrants in Russia. On gas, Mammadov said that President Aliyev himself did not expect what the Russians did in their negotiations with Azerbaijan, thinking that the Russians would take the opportunity to show some goodwill toward Azerbaijan, but none was forthcoming. On the issue of Azerbaijanis living in Russia, Mammadov said it was not a good decision by the GOR (to crack down on the status of the Azerbaijani community),and it was carried out without careful planning. He said there were GOR officials who were against the decision, but by then steps had already been taken to implement it. Mammadov said in fact this action was a &good thing8 because it demonstrates the lack of goodwill by the Russians. He said he saw this as an opportunity for Azerbaijan to put &distance8 with Russia. He also said that &maybe in a year or so8 the GOAJ will talk about the status of the strategically important Russian radar station at Gabala, or the issue of transporting oil on the pipeline to Novorossisk, but it was &keeping them for the future8 as topics. Finally, when DCM praised "Protect Us Against Bullies," the Foreign Minister,s Wall Street Journal op-ed piece January 19 on Azerbaijan's energy and other strategic priorities, Mammadov laughed, saying that as soon as the op-ed appeared &another Embassy8 immediately contacted him to ask, &Who is the bully mentioned in the article?8 ¶2. (C) Regarding Turkmenistan, Mammadov said that Europe and the United States need to be very active in their diplomacy. Activity is good in itself. He said that Azerbaijan,s delicate relations with Turkmenistan do not permit such engagement. He said the new head in Turkmenistan is &a man of Russia8 but Europe and the United States need to coordinate their engagement, in order to influence developments in a positive way. He said that we should encourage the Turkmen leadership to put pro- US and European advisors in the government, as a counterbalance. He said that if we coordinate well what we do, &it will be a very good year, especially for the United States8 in Central Asia. He also encouraged us to work closely with Turkey on Turkmenistan issues. DCM said the February visit to Baku by SCA PDAS Mann, a former US Ambassador to Turkmenistan, offered an excellent opportunity for discussions about Turkmenistan on the margins of the U.S.-Azerbaijan energy dialogue. Mammadov readily agreed. ¶3. (S/NF) On Iran, Mammadov said the Azerbaijanis were seeing some &interesting8 developments in Iran: As the United States enhances its pressure on Iran, he said the GOAJ is seeing the emergence of disagreements among Iranian officials, including between the Ayatollah and other key officials, and between other groups, for example. Mammadov also recalled a statement made to President Aliyev months ago by the Iranian President (related previously to us by Aliyev and reported) that if the United States uses Azerbaijan in any action against Iran, we will have to attack Azerbaijan. Mammadov said that it was very inappropriate for a national leader to talk in this threatening way. Mammadov said, &I was in the room. I heard this.8 (Note: Aliyev had relayed the Iranian President,s statement in a more nuanced way, that Iran would have to attack wherever an attack came from.) DERSE