AZERBAIJANI SPY SHOW FALLOUT CONTINUES

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001515

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL IR AJ
SUBJECT: AZERBAIJANI SPY SHOW FALLOUT CONTINUES

REF: BAKU 1495

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Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Fallout associated with a December 14
Azerbaijani television 'special program' in which several
Azerbaijani nationals confessed to spying for Iran and having
connections with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)
continues (reftel). While the Iranian Embassy in Baku has
denied that Iran demanded a formal apology, the Iranian
government did demand that the Government of Azerbaijan
(GOAJ) turn over all proof associated with what the Iranian
government has called a "comedy orchestrated by Israel and
the U.S. to hinder Azerbaijan and Iran from developing ties
with each other." Azerbaijani Ministry of Foreign Affairs
(MFA) spokesman Khazar Ibrahim confirmed press reports that
Iran's ambassador to Baku was summoned to the Foreign
Ministry on December 19 to receive additional details
surrounding this case, with Azerbaijani Deputy Foreign
Minister (DFM) Sadiqov reportedly requesting an official
response to these claims from the Iranian Foreign Ministry.
While most Azerbaijani political analysts take seriously the
government's account that Iran actively supports subversive
activities in the country, some have hinted that the GOAJ may
be playing up this threat for a Western audience. End
Summary.

Iranian Reaction Continues
--------------


2. (C) Iran continues to react angrily to a December 14
Azerbaijani television broadcast which provided details about
a group of fifteen Azerbaijani nationals calling themselves
the "Mahdi Army Group," convicted on December 10 by the
Azerbaijani Serious Crimes Court of plotting to overthrow the
government. While the Iranian Embassy in Baku has denied
that Iran demanded a formal apology, the Iranian government
did demand that the GOAJ turn over all proof associated with
what the Iranian government has deemed a "comedy orchestrated
by Israel and the U.S. to hinder Azerbaijan and Iran from
developing ties with each other." Azerbaijani MFA spokesman
Khazar Ibrahim confirmed December 19 press reports that
Iranian Ambassador Hamidi-Zare was summoned to the Foreign
Ministry on December 19 to meet with Deputy Foreign Minister
Sadiqov, who provided him with additional details surrounding
this case and requested an official response. In December 19
press comments, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Mammadyarov said
that the GOAJ had provided "all available facts" to the
Iranian government, "and was now awaiting a reply."
(Comment: Ambassador Derse will meet with Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov December 19 on this and other issues.)


3. (C) Based on anecdotal evidence, most Azerbaijani
political analysts take seriously the GOAJ's report of this
incident and the notion that Iran actively supports
subversive activities in the country. Well-regarded
political commentator Rasim Musabayov and opposition Member
of Parliament Nasib Nasibli fall squarely into this camp.
Musabayov told us that he believes the GOAJ's claims and
Nasibli suggested that "Azerbaijan had nothing to explain to
Iran" since this case involved Azerbaijanis being tried and
convicted by an Azerbaijani court. Few Azerbaijanis believe
that the U.S. or Israel could have been behind this incident,
with commentator Elchin Qambarov publicly ruling out U.S. or
Israeli involvement in an Azadliq opposition newspaper
article. While some political commentators including
Zardusht Alizade have suggested that the GOAJ may be playing
up the threat for a Western audience, few Azerbaijanis doubt
that Iran is, in fact, actively engaged in active subversion
efforts.

Azerbaijani Media Reaction
--------------


4. (U) Official newspapers have generally avoided commenting
on the incident altogether. Independent and opposition media
outlets, however, appear to have taken a common stance,
highly critical of Iran's reaction to the exposure of
Iranian-supported extremists by the Ministry of National
Security in Azerbaijan. Independent Ayna newspaper wrote on
December 18 "If the Tehran government does not have a hand in
this deal, it would have denied it with a protest note."
Independent Ekho newspaper also highlighted the fact that the
Azerbaijani Ambassador, summoned to the Iranian Foreign
Ministry, was not presented an official note. "No one would
dare to blame a foreign state without having undeniable
arguments. If the National Security Ministry issues such a

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statement, it means that it has irrefutable facts that
support its claim," wrote opposition Yeni Musavat newspaper
quoting opposition Musavat Party activist Qabil Huseynli.

Comment
--------------


5. (C) While Iran has backed down on its initial demand that
Azerbaijan apologize for what transpired (subsequently
insisting that Azerbaijan turn over evidence surrounding the
case),the Azerbaijani government - backed by what seems to
be a majority of Azerbaijani public opinion - has stood
steadfast through the barrage of conspiratorial attacks in
the Iranian press. If this incident follows the course of
previous flare-ups in the Azerbaijani-Iranian relationship,
the GOAJ, having made its point to its larger and often
unpredictable neighbor, will likely be interested in
restoring "normalcy" to the relationship as soon as possible.
DERSE