SCA PDAS MANN AND FM MAMMADYAROV DISCUSS

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAKU 001490

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/17/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV ENRG TX AJ PHUM
SUBJECT: SCA PDAS MANN AND FM MAMMADYAROV DISCUSS
AZERBAIJANI-TURKMEN ENERGY RELATIONS

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a November 13 meeting with the
Ambassador and PDAS Steven Mann, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister
Mammadyarov was downbeat on prospects for Turkmenistan moving
quickly to send Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan or to resolve the
Caspian delimitation issue. Mammadyarov said he was
encouraged, however, by Berdimuhamedov's statement at the
October Caspian summit because it supported a median line
delimitation concept and a trans-Caspian pipeline. On a
possible trilateral Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan energy
summit, Mammadyarov suggested the ball is in Ashgabat's
court, and he asked Mann to convey a proposal for a
declaration to the Turkmen. Mammadyarov reacted defensively
to the Ambassador raising the recent detention of Azadliq
journalist Genimet Zahidov, arguing that the GOAJ could not
tolerate a journalist attacking another citizen. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Participants at the meeting included: the
Ambassador, PDAS Steven Mann, SCA/CEN Director Pamela
Spratlen, and EEB officer J. Laurence Wright II.

Energy
--------------


3. (C) Foreign Minister Elmar Mammadyarov was downbeat on
Turkmenistan moving quickly to send Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan
or to resolve the Caspian delimitation issue. Sharing his
impressions of Turkmen President Berdimuhamedov, Mammadyarov
said that while he is "an interesting guy," he is full of
"too much bullshit." Mammadyarov observed that Turkmen
Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov is overly conservative and
"will stop" Berdimuhamedov from moving too far in
Azerbaijan's direction. Mammadyarov reviewed the GOAJ's
suggestion to Ashgabat that they characterize discussions on
sending Turkmen gas to Azerbaijan as "development of
infrastructure" and avoid mention of "pipelines" in order to
shield Ashgabat from Moscow's pressure. Mammadyarov
complained that Berdimuhamedov still has not appointed an
Ambassador to Azerbaijan.


4. (C) Mammadyarov said he was impressed with
Berdimuhamedov's statement during the October Caspian summit
in Tehran that supported the median line concept and a
trans-Caspian pipeline. During the summit, Mammadyarov
provided the Turkmen deputy foreign minister with a proposal
for a bilateral accord, which would note both sides'
agreement on the median principle and establish an
expert-level group to define the median line. Mammadyarov
suggested Ashgabat has not yet responded to this proposal.
Mammadyarov reiterated the GOAJ's argument that the U.S.
should be more active in encouraging the GOTX to send gas
through a trans-Caspian pipeline. Mammadyarov said Ashgabat
is looking for "security guarantees," and he doubted that
Turkey could fulfill this role.


5. (C) Mammadyarov said President Aliyev supports a
trilateral Azerbaijan-Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan energy summit,
but blamed Kazakh President Nazarbayev for not pressing
Berdimuhamedov to support Nazarbayev's proposal for the
summit. Mammadyarov suggested that Turkey take the lead in
calling for a trilateral summit, rather than the U.S.
Mammadyarov also recommended the summit be held in a European
capital to cater to Berdimuhamedov's desire to be showcased
in the West. The summit's goals would be to send a clearer
signal to energy companies, demonstrate the three states'
political commitment to energy cooperation, and signal that
Turkmenistan is "looking in a new direction," according to
Mammadyarov. In response to Mann's point that a summit
should have concrete results, Mammadyarov said it was
important to have some momentum because currently "there is
no movement at all." Commenting on the idea of a
U.S.-Turkmen-Azerbaijan working-level meeting to discuss
energy cooperation, Mammadyarov said more senior-level
officials would need to be involved because Turkmen experts
are not empowered to make decisions.


6. (C) As an alternative he suggested that Azerbaijan,
Turkmenistan, and Kazahkstan meet and issue a declaration
centering on two points: acceptance of a median line concept
as the basis for delimitation, and agreement to have experts
meet to work out the details. Mann agreed to share the idea
with the Turkmen.


7. (C) Mann observed that U.S. energy companies are
complaining about difficulties in working with the GOAJ and
SOCAR. Mann raised the need for senior-level GOAJ attention
to this issue, particularly as western companies consider the
possible modalities of sending Turkmen gas through
Azerbaijan. Mammadyarov suggested raising this issue with
SOCAR VP Elshad Nasirov.


8. (C) Mammadyarov said that he will travel to Berlin on
December 3; the substance of the visit will be to sign an MOU
on energy cooperation, similar to the agreement Azerbaijan
signed with the US, and launch a joint energy dialogue.
Mammadyarov noted this will be the first bilateral energy
memorandum with a European state.

Nagorno-Karabakh
--------------


9. Mammadyarov criticized Armenian Prime Minister Serge
Sarkisian's recent public statement highlighting the
religious nature of the Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) conflict.
Mammadyarov observed that Sarkisian will not be able to
survive ten years in office without moderating his stance on
the conflict; his biggest problem will be dealing with
pressure from the Armenian diaspora. Mammadyarov said he
heard from OSCE Minsk Group Co-Chair Bernard Fassier that
Armenian President Robert Kocharian may become a Gazprom
board member after stepping down from the Presidency.

Pressure against Journalist
--------------


10. (C) The Ambassador raised the recent detention of
Azadliq journalist Genimet Zahidov, underscoring that this
appears to be part of a disturbing trend of deliberate
pressure against the independent and pro-opposition media,
and that this damages Azerbaijan's image. Mammadyarov was
unusually defensive about the case, arguing extensively that
the GOAJ culd not tolerate a journalist attacking another
itizen, but ultimately concluding "I hear you." Mmmadyarov
complained that the U.S. public statement was too strong.
The Ambassador told Mammadyarov that a letter from several
Ambassadors would be sent to the Foreign Minister in the
coming days, requesting a meeting to talk about the state of
democracy in Azerbaijan. Mammadyarov indicated he was open
to such a meeting.


11. (U) PDAS Ambassador Mann has cleared this cable.
DERSE