AZERBAIJAN,S APPROACH TO THE "NEW" GUAM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAKU 000136 SIPDIS SIPDIS DEPT FOR EUR/CARC E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/30/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PBTS KDEM AJ GG MD UP SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN,S APPROACH TO THE "NEW" GUAM REF: 06 USUN 01817 Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b,d) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: In the past year, Azerbaijan's primary interest in GUAM appears to have been regional security, especially resolving the region,s "protracted" or "frozen" conflicts. As Azerbaijan prepares to assume the Chair of GUAM in June, Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov said GUAM should focus on creating an "east-west corridor" and focus on "action-oriented" activities. Azerbaijan's ability to lead GUAM after it assumes the chairmanship at the June heads of state summit will be the best indicator of the GOAJ's approach to and priorities for the organization. Azimov has requested senior level USG representation at the summit and assistance in convincing Kazakhstan and Turkey to send official representatives. GOAJ support for a proposed GUAM peacekeeping unit remains unclear; Azerbaijan lobbied for the creation on a new GUAM working group on military and political cooperation, which Azimov described as "very sensitive." Azimov acknowledged that differences among and within the GUAM member states have limited the organization,s effectiveness. The GOAJ itself likely is to blame for some of these problems; the GOAJ still needs to approve the GUAM charter and exercise leadership in the two working groups -- transportation and emergency situations -- that it will chair from 2007-2008. The chief constraint on Azerbaijan's GUAM participation is its desire to maintain good relations with Russia. END SUMMARY. Context: The Kyiv Summit -------------- ¶2. (U) At the May 2006 Kyiv Summit, GUAM heads of state took symbolic strides to jumpstart the organization, including a new name: the "Organization for Democracy and Economic Development--GUAM;" a new charter; and the creation of a secretariat in Kyiv. The Kyiv declaration emphasized four SIPDIS areas of cooperation: European integration; regional security, with a special emphasis on the principles of "sovereignty" and "territorial integrity" (i.e. a favorable resolution of the protracted conflicts); economic cooperation; and "dedication to democratic values, adherence for the rule of law, and respect for human rights." In the eight months following the summit, Azerbaijan's primary interest in GUAM appears to have been regional security, especially resolving the region,s "protracted" or "frozen" conflicts. Deputy Foreign Minister Lays out Vision for GUAM -------------- --- ¶3. (C) Deputy Foreign Minister Araz Azimov, who is the GOAJ's national coordinator for GUAM, told then-Charge d'Affaires on January 10 that GUAM should focus on creating an east-west "corridor." GUAM's activities in all fields should be better coordinated toward the goal of creating an "action-oriented" east-west corridor, according to Azimov. In this respect, Azimov argued that it would be helpful to have Kazakhstan join GUAM. On the issue of GUAM's attempt to put the protracted conflicts on the UNGA agenda, Azimov said that "we seek a short resolution" that attempts to be "constructive." Azimov noted that a future UN resolution would focus on a "roadmap" for resolving the protracted conflicts within the principle of "territorial integrity," while not discarding the need for "self-rule." Azimov remarked that a draft is being discussed by GUAM member states' missions to the UN. ¶4. (C) Azimov told the Charge that Azerbaijan will assume the GUAM chairmanship in June, during a heads of state summit in Baku. GUAM probably will invite several non-GUAM members to participate, specifically Bulgaria, Estonia, Kazakhstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania, and Turkey, according to Azimov. Azimov and other MFA officials have requested that a senior-level USG official attend the summit to raise the organization's profile. He also asked for USG assistance in convincing Kazakhstan and Turkey to attend the summit. Azimov reported that Azerbaijan will chair two GUAM working groups -- transportation and emergency situations -- from 2007-2008, and he observed that the transportation working group was "very important" for Azerbaijan. BAKU 00000136 002 OF 003 ¶5. (C) Azimov acknowledged that GUAM faces challenges. Azimov observed that there is a tendency within the GOAJ and other member states' for specific government agencies to view GUAM only through an agency-specific perspective. Azimov said that governments and specific agencies need to focus on the broader strategic concept of GUAM's role as an east-west corridor. Accordingly, Azimov said he has encouraged relevant GOAJ deputy ministers to avoid letting the organization become a talk-shop and to be more active in designing projects that will contribute to GUAM's vitality. Azimov noted that he hopes to give a speech at the June 2007 summit focusing on the need for GUAM's activities to be "action-oriented" and for the organization to focus on its role as an east-west corridor. Commenting on other member states, Azimov said Moldova has been the least active in chairing its respective working groups; he also said that internal disagreement within the Ukrainian government about the direction of Ukraine's foreign policy is GUAM's key "political problem." Other MFA Perspectives -------------- ¶6. (SBU) In conversations about GUAM, other MFA officials regularly emphasize the GOAJ's interest in resolving the protracted conflicts and highlighting Baku's pro-Western foreign policy orientation. MFA GUAM desk officer Mahur Gasimov told us that the GOAJ's top GUAM priorities are gaining support for the GOAJ's position on the Nagorno Karabakh (NK) conflict and enhancing economic cooperation among members. Separately, MFA Americas desk officer Elchin Bashirov said GUAM is primarily important for emphasizing Azerbaijan's western-leaning orientation. Another common theme we hear from MFA officers is that US support for GUAM is central to the organization's existence. For example, Qalib Israfilov (Director of the MFA's International Security Department, which is responsible for formulating the Ministry's GUAM policy) repeatedly has told us that the GOAJ wants to work closely with the USG on GUAM-related issues. The Road Ahead -------------- ¶7. (C) Based on Azimov,s comments, it seems the GOAJ is interested in building GUAM as an institution and could use Baku's upcoming chairmanship to push the organization to refocus on a more strategic vision of creating an east-west corridor and pursuing results-oriented activities. Yet the GOAJ record to-date, including a lack of cohesion among the GOAJ agencies charged with implementing the GUAM agenda, indicates that Azimov will face challenges in implementing his vision. ¶8. (C) Institutionally, GUAM,s next step is create an effective GUAM Secretariat and active working groups. However, incoming GUAM Chair Azerbaijan has not yet approved the new GUAM charter. According to the MFA, the Parliament approved the GUAM charter in December 2006, but President Aliyev still needs to approve the document. The GOAJ's leadership in chairing the transportation and emergency situations working groups will provide the GOAJ with an opportunity to exercise leadership within GUAM. Previously, the GOAJ chaired the working group on combatting terrorism, organized crime and drug trafficking from 2003-2006. A USG funded advisor to GUAM told us in December that the Azerbaijani Deputy Interior Minister had done a poor job of chairing this working group, which has been turned over to Moldova for 2007-2008. ¶9. (C) Azerbaijan,s position on a proposed GUAM peacekeeping unit remains unclear. MFA Officer Gasimov told us the GOAJ was instrumental in lobbying for the creation of a new GUAM working group on military and political cooperation, which could be the institutional forum for creating a GUAM peacekeeping unit. Deputy Foreign Minister Azimov characterized the working group's activities as "very sensitive." ¶10. (C) (Comment: The Virtual Law Enforcement Center (VLEC) -- a secure computer system that enables GUAM members to share information on threats posed by terrorists, organized crime, and drug trafficking -- could emerge as a forum to enhance cooperation among GUAM member countries. This likely BAKU 00000136 003 OF 003 will not occur without persistent USG engagement, however. Alexander Fracas, a USG-paid consultant from the Southeast European Cooperative Initiative (SECI) to GUAM and a Romanian diplomat, told us in November 2006 that he has seen some incremental progress at the mid and working-levels among GUAM members, and that the center can play a helpful role in law enforcement efforts. He claimed, however, that it has been a long effort in trying to get the GUAM members to use the VLEC. Fracas also acknowledged that relative to SECI, GUAM members have less incentive to bring their laws into closer conformity with EU standards. Law Enforcement Advisor, who is the primary point of contact with the Azerbaijani VLEC, said it has been difficult to get GUAM members to understand the value of the system. She observed, however, that the center probably needs more time to be running before an evaluation can be made of its activities.) Ties with Russia Constrain Baku's GUAM Involvement -------------- -------------- ¶11. (C) Azerbaijan's complex relationship with Russia appears to be the chief constraint on the GOAJ's participation in GUAM. GOAJ officials, until recently, went out of their way to avoid giving the impression that GUAM is anti-Russian, indicating Baku's sensitivities to introducing irritants in relations with Moscow. Yegana Balayeva from the Embassy of Azerbaijan in Washington told other GUAM members on October 23 -- during a working-level meeting of GUAM members and Department officers -- that the GOAJ was wary of GUAM's reputation as an anti-Russian block. She noted the GUAM UNGA resolution on the protracted conflicts was not aimed at any country. ¶12. (C) Reflecting the GOAJ's concern with maintaining a "balanced" foreign policy, MFA officer Bashirov told us that GUAM includes "some radical elements" -- specifically, he said, Georgia and Moldova. Bashirov said that while Georgia and Azerbaijan share many common interests, Georgia's "provocative approach" toward Russia is not in Baku's interests. Bashirov noted that the tone and substance of President Aliyev's May statement from the Kyiv summit reflects the strong GOAJ interest in avoiding the perception that GUAM is an anti-Russian organization. (Note: According to press, Aliyev's statement noted, "It (GUAM) is not aimed against anybody...We didn't gather here to make friends in order to oppose someone else.") Comment -------------- ¶13. (C) Azimov's argument that GUAM should focus on "action-oriented" activities that bolster GUAM's ability toserve as an east-west bridge is a welcome strategic vision. However, it is unclear to what extent this vision is shared by other GUAM members and by the other GOAJ ministries responsible for implementing GUAM activities. DERSE