A/S FRIED'S DINNER WITH AZERBAIJANI RELIGIOUS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 BAKU 001354

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/2017
TAGS: PREL PHUM KDEM KISL IR AJ
SUBJECT: A/S FRIED'S DINNER WITH AZERBAIJANI RELIGIOUS
ANALYSTS


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Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: At a November 4 dinner in honor of visiting
EUR A/S Fried, leading religious analysts agreed that
religiosity was on the rise in Azerbaijan, but disagreed on
whether radicalism was also on the rise. Those who argued
that radicalism was on the rise attributed it to a mix of
foreign influences and domestic developments, including
government control over society and the lingering effects of
a Soviet education system that did not emphasize critical
thinking skills. Several analysts noted that young women
receive pressure from government officials - and from their
families, who fear discrimination - not to wear the hijab.
The analysts were all concerned about the Government of
Azerbaijan's (GOAJ) handling of the recently foiled terrorist
plot on the U.S. Embassy, worrying that the GOAJ's crackdown
on terror targeted only pious Muslims and had the potential
to exacerbate tensions between secular and pious
Azerbaijanis. End Summary.

Wahhabism and Radicalization in Azerbaijan?
--------------


2. (C) In honor of visiting Assistant Secretary for European
and Eurasian Affairs Daniel Fried, the Ambassador hosted a
November 4 dinner discussion with five local religious
analysts and activists. The following Azerbaijani
commentators attended:

Dr. Nariman Gasimoglu, Azerbaijan Center for Religion and
Democracy
Ms. Aysel Vazirova, religious expert
Ms. Durdani Jafarli, religious expert
Mr. Sardar Yusifoglu, Chairman of the "Moral Development of
Youth" NGO
Mr. Ilgar Ibrahimoglu, Head of the Center for the Protection
of Freedom and Conscience of Religion (DEVAMM)


3. (C) A/S Fried and the Ambassador welcomed participants,
saying they looked forward to hearing their views and
learning more about religion in Azerbaijan. Responding to
A/S Fried's question about the causes of religious
radicalization in Azerbaijan and their implications,
Gasimoglu said that radicalization had no roots in
Azerbaijan, attributing the phenomenon to external sources
such as Iran, Turkey, and Arab countries. Using the
headscarf as an example, Gasimoglu said that today's style of
headscarf was more similar to that worn in Iran or Turkey,
not the traditional style seen before the Soviet period.
While acknowledging the role seventy years of Soviet
influence had on the current religious reawakening in
Azerbaijan, Gasimoglu said that Azerbaijanis were keener to
articulate their religious views and values due to these
outside influences as well.


4. (C) Vazirova disagreed with Gasimoglu, saying that the
inability of Azerbaijanis to express their discontent and
seek change was contributing to radicalization in the
country. Asking what other avenues existed if a person could
not express himself legally, Vazirova said that internal
factors were the biggest contributing factor, and external
factors a secondary factor due to the press of local issues.
According to Vazirova, only a small percentage of Azerbaijani
women wore the headscarf in a traditional (pre-Soviet period)
manner, with today's women displaying it in a newer, yet
distinct Azerbaijani way. Responding to A/S Fried's question
about the nature of laws governing religious expression in
Azerbaijan, Vazirova said that while there were no laws
prohibiting the wear of headscarves by university students,
informal hurdles were considerable, with university rectors
and professors reportedly approaching covered students and
strongly encouraging them to remove them.


5. (C) Recounting an earlier meeting with secular NGOs in
which the NGOs told him that they did not consider religious
expression or freedoms to be a threat, A/S Fried said that
this was curious to him. Saying that in the U.S. religious
expression was not seen as a challenge, Fried recounted an
argument he had recently heard in France. Fried was told
that one reason the French support a ban on headscarves in
school was to allow girls the freedom to express themselves -
by not wearing the headscarf - since they were under
considerable pressure both at home and in the community to be
covered. To this, Vazirova said that the headscarf issue was
now being seen as a human rights issue in Azerbaijan.
According to Vazirova's research, the evidence in Azerbaijan

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was quite different from France, where women are seeking to
wear the hijab, while families were pressuring them not to.


6. (C) Returning to the question of radicalization, A/S
Fried told guests that nearly everyone except the Government
of Azerbaijan (GOAJ) had talked about a democracy deficit in
the country. Asking guests if this democracy deficit
contributed to radicalization in Azerbaijan, Ibrahimoglu
responded by saying that while most practicing Muslims in
Azerbaijan were not becoming radicalized, internal and
external factors were playing a role in the radicalization of
all Azerbaijanis. According to Ibrahimoglu, the lack of free
and fair elections, absence of an effective social welfare
net, and price increases were contributing to the general
unhappiness of all Azerbaijanis. To support his point that
religious radicalization was not on the rise in the country,
Ibahimoglu said that the level of religiosity in Azerbaijan -
Ibrahimoglu using mosque attendance figures as a basis -
simply didn't support this assertion since fewer than one
percent of Baku residents attended mosque on a regular basis.
Pointing out the religiosity was higher in the U.S. and even
France, Ibrahimoglu argued that levels of religiosity would
likely be higher if radicalization was taking place.
Instead, Ibrahimoglu posited that the GOAJ was using this
alleged threat simply to justify its authoritarian actions.
Citing as an example the recent expulsion of eight girls from
school in Zaqatala for wearing the hijab, Ibrahimoglu argued
that the GOAJ was trying to equate wearing the hijab with
Wahhabism.


7. (C) Responding to A/S Fried's point that Europe still
sought to maintain its largely Christian identity while the
U.S. had progressed to a largely multiconfessional society,
Gasimoglu disagreed with Ibrahimoglu, saying that
radicalization was in fact taking place in Azerbaijan.
Recounting his previous efforts to have the Koran taught in
the Azeri language and for speaking out publicly on the
headscarf issue, Gasimoglu said that his life had been
repeatedly threatened, with authorities arresting several
individuals for these threats. Arguing that these examples
clearly demonstrated an up-tick in radicalization, Gasimoglu
said that Azerbaijan was not as tolerant as it once was. To
this, Ibrahimoglu argued that while he, too, had received
death threats, this did not support the generalization that
radicalization was taking place, simply that there were
"currents." Saying that normal believers suffer more than
radicals because of recent events such as the plot to attack
the U.S. Embassy in Baku, Ibrahimoglu said that the fight
against terror should not be turned into a fight against
believers.


8. (C) Pressed to clarify whether he believed the alleged
terrorists arrested for planning the attack on the Embassy
were simply religious believers, Ibrahimoglu said that while
no one denies there is a threat, it is not at the level being
portrayed in the local media. He noted that not one of the
suspects had been shown on television, something
uncharacteristic in a country where suspects are shown
repeatedly in the press. Ibrahimoglu then told A/S Fried
that he did not want the international community to allow the
GOAJ to limit space for religion, again citing the GOAJ's
targeting of wearers of the hijab as a sign of "Wahhabism,"
according to the GOAJ. Ibrahimoglu said that his greatest
fear was that the GOAJ would stoke a fight between believers
and the secular population under the umbrella of "fighting
terror."


9. (C) Vazirova said that it was important to establish the
definition of radicalization because this term was loaded
with meaning in Azerbaijan and used to describe many things,
as is the term "Wahhabism." Vazirova said that if we were to
think of radicalization as an openness to actions which are
illegal, she believed that she did not see many signs of this
at present. If, however, we were to define radicalization as
a radicalization of thought (Vazirova meaning not being open
to other ideas or interpretations),then Vazirova believed
Azerbaijanis were becoming more radical. To support this
view, Vazirova cited the radicalization of discussion in
internet discussions and lectures, many being anti-Shia and
increasingly negative and confrontational in nature.
Responding to A/S Fried's question as to whether the profile
of radicalism in Azerbaijan was Sunni in nature, many
participants agreed.


10. (C) Vazirova noted that the lingering effects of the
Soviet educational system made it difficult for Azerbaijanis

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to critically evaluate the large amounts of religious
information available. Pointing to the wide variety of
books, CDs, brochures and other media in Azerbaijani entering
the country from Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia, Vazirova
also said that translating and discussing these issues was a
good thing. Saying that the Sunni-Shia divide was no more
emotional than the Protestant-Catholic divide in the U.S.,
Ibrahimoglu argued that the wide variety of information and
fora for religious discussions had toned down tensions
considerably since the 1990s. According to Ibrahimoglu, it
is far more dangerous not to have educational materials or
discussions available than to communicate and explore issues
openly.


11. (C) Jafarli also shared Ibrahimoglu's concern that the
GOAJ was using the terror plot against the U.S. Embassy to
increase pressure on pious Muslims. According to Jafarli,
Azerbaijani families and society are not opposed to the
wearing of the hijab, but the GOAJ is. Recognizing this,
families are urging their daughters not to wear the hijab out
of fear that they may not be able to enter university or
secure a job once they have completed their studies. Citing
recent examples of young women being denied the opportunity
to take the university entrance examination because they
either appeared wearing the hijab or submitting "improper"
paperwork, Jafarli told the Ambassador that she believed the
GOAJ was clearly behind these steps. Pointing to the GOAJ's
closure of state-organized Koranic courses four months ago
due to a need for a "new curriculum," Jafarli said that the
State Committee for Religious Affairs would not have ordered
this without higher-level government clearance. Yusifoglu
was also critical of the government's decision, saying that
while all officially-registered courses had been closed,
unofficial courses - often in mosques - continued. Saying
that it did not make sense for the GOAJ to shut down courses
in a more secure environment, while allowing them to go on in
an insecure environment, possibly influenced by more radical
ideologies, something he felt was contributing to more
divisions within Islam. To Jafarli it was not clear why the
GOAJ would deny for years the existence of extremist groups
and suddenly reverse course and say they were a threat, a
contradiction in her mind. While conceding that there was
the potential for Wahhabism to threaten Azerbaijan's
stability, Jafarli felt recent GOAJ steps targeting believers
were only exacerbating tensions.


12. (C) Responding to A/S Fried's question as to what was
driving the GOAJ to take these measures, Jafarli believed
that these actions were being taken to prepare Azerbaijani
society for future measures, possibly including a formal ban
on the hijab at universities. While Ibrahimoglu attributed
the GOAJ's pressure on the hijab issue to the AK Party's
recent successes in Turkey, Vazirova said that she believed
that at the core of the issue for most Azerbaijanis was a
deep mistrust in people of faith possibly taking power and
imposing their views - to include wearing of the hijab - on
all Azerbaijanis. Noting that he worried about the
authoritarian strain on civil society and resulting
alienation, A/S Fried said that regimes often search for an
external enemy, unfortunate because he believed so much could
be going right in Azerbaijan. Adding that it was natural for
post-Soviet states to rediscover their pre-Soviet roots
seeking a natural cultural continuum, A/S Fried said that he
was hopeful this would take place in a democratic context.
Thanking his guests, A/S Fried reiterated the point that it
was important that they knew that the U.S. was not hostile to
Islam.

Comment
--------------


13. (C) Azerbaijanis of all political persuasions agree that
religiosity is on the rise in Azerbaijan. The degree to
which this growing interest in and observance of religion
will translate into political Islam is an issue we continue
to assess. As was seen at this dinner, there was no clear
agreement on the question of whether radicalization in
Azerbaijan was on the increase, with figures such as
Gasimoglu arguing that it was, while Ibrahimoglu only did so
grudgingly. All the participants agreed that the
government's tight control over political space in Azerbaijan
certainly would contribute to the rise in extremism over
time. We share their concerns, and continue to engage the
government in a discussion of this issue.


14. (U) A/S Fried cleared this message.

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DERSE