EU REPRESENTATIVE PETER SEMNEBY COMMENTS ON HIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 001284

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/19/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PBTS PHUM ENRG IR AM AJ
SUBJECT: EU REPRESENTATIVE PETER SEMNEBY COMMENTS ON HIS
MEETING WITH AZERBAIJANI PRESIDENT ALIYEV


Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: EU Special Representative Peter Semneby
reviewed his October 18 meeting with President Aliyev with
the Ambassador on the same day. Aliyev told Semneby there
was no agreement at the Caspian Heads of State meeting in
Tehran. During the Caspian Summit, Turkmen President
Berdimuhamedov privately told Aliyev he supported a
trans-Caspian gas pipeline, although Berdimuhamedov could not
make this public. On EU concern about Azerbaijan's
democratic track record, Aliyev complained that the EU
unfairly singles out Azerbaijan for criticism. Aliyev was
downbeat on the prospects for a settlement to the
Nagorno-Karabakh conflict until after Azerbaijan and
Armenia's respective election cycles are finished in 2009.
End Summary.


2. (C) The Ambassador met with EU Special Representative
for the South Caucasus Peter Semneby on October 18. Semneby
was accompanied by several other EU officers: Mark Fawcett,
Alexandros Yannis, and Gael Guichard. The EU officers
provided the Ambassador with a readout of their meeting that
same day with President Ilham Aliyev. The officials also met
with human rights activists and Minister of Internal Affairs
Ramil Usubov. Semneby remarked that his meeting with Usubov
was not very productive.

Caspian Summit Tidbits
--------------


3. (C) According to Semneby, Aliyev's key point about the
Caspian Heads of State summit in Tehran was that there was no
agreement among the heads of state on the division of the
Caspian. Aliyev appeared comfortable that Azerbaijan did not
make any concessions during the summit. During the summit,
Putin insisted on the principle of collective consensus
regarding any potential pipeline.


4. (C) Aliyev told Semneby that during the Caspian summit,
Turkmen President Berdimuhamedov privately told Aliyev that
he supported a trans-Caspian gas pipeline. "Although we
can't call it a TCP, just an interconnector." Berdimuhamedov
said he could not make this position public, however. Aliyev
told Semneby he was impatient with Turkmenistan's position.
Semneby observed that Aliyev feels very self-confident about
Azerbaijan's importance to the EU, but Aliyev also appears
somewhat "nervous" about the prospects for a trans-Caspian
pipeline and cooperation with Turkmenistan. Aliyev commented
that he cannot wait forever and this needs to be settled in
the next few months as the issue draws attention to
Azerbaijan.


5. (C) On Iran, Aliyev told Semneby that Iran feels
confident that it will not be diplomatically isolated and
will be able to avoid new UN sanctions because of Russia and
China's support in the UN Security Council.

Aliyev Complains about EU Double Standards
--------------


6. (C) Semneby told the Ambassador that in response to
Semneby raising concerns about Azerbaijan's democratic track
record, Aliyev countered sharply by arguing that the EU has a
double standard for Azerbaijan. Aliyev suggested that the EU
and the West only focus on Azerbaijan's problems, whereas the
EU and the West refrain from criticizing Georgia and
Ukraine's internal reform challenges.


7. (C) Aliyev argued that Azerbaijan needs more time to
implement reform, while reaffirming Azerbaijan's path toward
the West. Aliyev said Azerbaijan's "modernization goes
through Europe" and "Europe is our future." On Azerbaijan's
reform track record, Semneby and Yannis said that Aliyev
fails to grasp the importance of building sustainable
democratic institutions. Semneby's colleagues, who met
Aliyev for the first time, echoed the view of many of his
western interlocutors that he is confident, articulate, and
impressive in his command of detail on the issues and his
overall strategic vision.

Aliyev Skeptical about NK Solution
--------------


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8. (C) Aliyev was downbeat on the prospects for an NK
settlement, according to Semneby, suggesting there was little
hope for a near-term solution. Aliyev claimed that
Azerbaijan had offered a flexible position, while suggesting
that progress was unlikely until after Azerbaijan and
Armenia's respective election cycles were complete in 2009.
Aliyev also played to the usual themes of time being on
Azerbaijan's side because of Azerbaijan's growing economic
and military might, warning that Azerbaijan's position with
Armenia may be less flexible in 2009. Aliyev said he did not
care if there was no settlement before 2009. Yannis
interpreted Aliyev's comments on Armenia and the NK conflict
as an attempt to probe the EU for a response to this tougher
Azerbaijani position.
DERSE