GOAJ APPROVES OPPOSITION MUSAVAT PARTY REQUEST TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAKU 000125 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PHUM KDEM CASC ASEC AJ SUBJECT: GOAJ APPROVES OPPOSITION MUSAVAT PARTY REQUEST TO PROTEST PRICE HIKES ON JANUARY 28 REF: A. BAKU 89 ¶B. 06 BAKU 1704 Classified By: DEPUTY CHIEF OF MISSION JASON P. HYLAND PER 1.4(B,D) ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On January 24, the Baku Mayor's Office granted permission to the opposition Musavat Party to hold a January 28 rally protesting recent price increases. This decision marks the first official approval of any protest or rally since the November 26, 2005 violent break-up of a peaceful opposition rally. The Tariff Council's decision to raise utility prices - implemented January 8 - has triggered a number of small, illegal protest attempts both in Baku and in Azerbaijan's regions. The opposition Azadliq bloc, whose application was denied January 24, plans to hold a January 26 unsanctioned protest on the same topic. We issued an Embassy security notice and a warden notice alerting the American community to the possibility of violence at both protests. We will monitor both protests and report developments septel. END SUMMARY ¶2. (SBU) On January 24, the opposition Musavat Party received permission from the Baku Mayor's Office to hold a January 28 rally to protest recent price increases. This is the first opposition rally that the GOAJ has approved since police violently dispersed a peaceful, sanctioned opposition rally on November 26, 2005 (see ref b). Musavat plans to hold the protest at Ukraine Circle, one of the GOAJ's "approved" protest sites on the outskirts of Baku. Party leaders predict there will be between 5,000 and 10,000 protesters at the January 28 event, but party attendance predictions in the past have often proved wildly overstated. ¶3. (C) The Tariff Council's decision to raise prices for gasoline, diesel, natural gas, electricity, water, and sewage, which was implemented January 8 (see ref a) has triggered a number of small, unauthorized protest attempts in Baku as well as in Azerbaijan's regions. On January 21, the local Popular Front Party (PFP) branch held a protest in Mingechevir, a mid-western region. Suleyman Karimov, the head of the local PFP branch as well as protest organizer, told us he was detained and questioned for seven hours the evening of January 20. Approximately 200 people attended the January 21 protest, and although police did not respond with excessive force, we have been told that truncheons were used to immediately disperse the crowd. No protesters were detained, but Karimov reported that he has been followed since the event. Similar applications for protests over the price increases, organized by a variety of opposition parties, were denied by local authorities in the regions of Aghjabadi and Gazakh. ¶4. (C) On January 23, a group of elderly residents of the Julfa district of Azerbaijan's exclave, the Naxchivan Autonomous Republic, gathered to pick up their pensions, and discovered that due to the price increase, the GOAJ had deducted a much higher amount than usual for utilities. (NOTE: After the new utilities deduction, pensioners now receive 20 AZN per month - approximately USD 22. This amount will be increased to 30 AZN February 1 - approximately USD 33.) Human rights activist Novella Jafarova told us that although there was not an organized protest, several citizens loudly complained about the deduction. According to press reports, 12 people were injured as a result of military intervention. Jafarova said that while exact numbers are unavailable, many more than 12 people were injured. ¶5. (SBU) The opposition Azadliq bloc plans to carry out a January 26 protest, also in response to the price increases. Although Azadliq's request to demonstrate was denied in a January 24 letter from the Mayor's Office, party leaders have said publicly that they still intend to hold the protest in any number of eight possible protest locations near downtown Baku. None of the locations which Azadliq proposed in its application is among the locations officially "approved" for protests or rallies (see ref b). On January 25, Baku Deputy Police Chief Yashar Aliyev warned that "any illegal or unsanctioned rally will be prevented." We have issued a warden message and a security notice alerting the American community to the possibility of violence at both the January 26 and 28 rallies. ¶6. (C) Sardar Jalaloglu, Acting Chair of the Azerbaijan Democratic Party (ADP - part of the Azadliq bloc) told Poloff that Azadliq leaders believe agreeing to hold demonstrations at the locations approved by the local authorities would set a precedent to use only these undesirable locations for future events. While Azadliq as a bloc will not support Musavat at its January 28 protest, Jalaloglu said that ADP members are being encouraged to participate, and that an ADP Deputy may speak at the event. BAKU 00000125 002 OF 002 ¶7. (C) COMMENT: The GOAJ's decision to allow the opposition Musavat Party to hold a protest rally is a positive development; however, it remains to be seen whether the GOAJ will use this as an opportunity to restore citizens' right to freedom of assembly more broadly. We will monitor the January 26 and 28 rallies and report developments septel. DERSE