"CREDIBLE VOICES" IN MUSLIM COMMUNITIES IN

S E C R E T BAKU 001208

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

FOR EUR/CARC AND INR; PLEASE PASS TO JAMES VAN DE VELDE
(NATIONAL COUNTERTERRORISM CENTER)

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/02/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV KISL AJ
SUBJECT: "CREDIBLE VOICES" IN MUSLIM COMMUNITIES IN
AZERBAIJAN

REF: STATE 122288

Classified By: Ambassador Anne E. Derse for reasons 1.4 (b, c, d).


1. (C) Per reftel request, we propose the following three
individuals as "credible voices" in Azerbaijan,s Muslim
communities. We note that there is a very small number of
candidates who meet the criteria due to several factors: (1)
the GOAJ seeks to monopolize the playing field of credible
Islamic voices; (2) the relatively low level of religiosity
in Azerbaijan; (3) many individuals' "voices" are limited to
their particular region of origin or the region from which
they work. The Embassy has long-standing, positive
relationships with the following three individuals.


2. (C) Dr. Altay Geyushev: Professor at Baku State
University. Geyushev has an academic approach to Islam and
does not appear to be a devout believer. He is respected
among western and secular-leaning intellectuals in
Azerbaijan. He has extensive personal connections with many
clerics and believers in Azerbaijan. Pious believers are
unlikely to look to Geyushev as a source of influence because
his primary appeal is to other academics.

Background: Geyushev has a PhD in history and has been a
professor for several years. He is probably in his late-40s.
We do not know his confessional affiliation. He is an
ethnic Azeri.

Geographic Area: Although based in Baku, Geyushev has the
ability to reach national audiences through the media.

Forums for his influence: Print articles and speeches at
local conferences or seminars.

Disagreements with U.S. Policy: No known disagreements and
he does not advocate violence against the U.S.

Ideological position regarding jihad: He would likely argue
that jihad is primarily or exclusively an internal, spiritual
matter.

Derogatory information: No known information.

Current relationship with USG: Geyushev is a regular
contact. He will spend the next 10 months as a Fulbright
Scholar at Georgetown University, where he will be studying
the development of Islam in Azerbaijan.


3. (C) Nariman Gasimoglu: Independent commentator on the
role of Islam in Azerbaijan. The majority of his work is
focused on showing how the Koran supports democracy, human
rights, and religious tolerance. Gasimoglu is well-known for
his translation of the Koran into Azerbaijani. Although
Gasimoglu is religiously observant, he has a primarily
academic approach to Islam. His primary appeal likely is to
other western-oriented academics. Although Gasimoglu has
strong ties to the opposition Azadliq bloc and ran as an
Azadliq candidate in the 2005 parliamentary election, he has
withdrawn from political activity in the last two years.

Background: Educational background is unknown. He is
probably in his late 40s. He is an ethnic Azeri.

Geographic Area: Although based in Baku, Gasimoglu could
reach national audiences through the media.

Forums for influence: Print articles and lectures that cater
to well-educated Muslims, who are more favorably inclined to
the West. He probably has little to no influence outside of
these circles.

Disagreements with U.S. Policy: Like many other
opposition-leaning activists, Gasimoglu has been critical
from time to time of U.S. democracy policy in Azerbaijan,
arguing that the U.S. should pursue a more activist reform
agenda. He does not advocate violence against the U.S.

Ideological position regarding jihad: He argues that jihad
is exclusively an internal, spiritual matter.

Derogatory information: No known information.

Current Relationship with USG: Gasimoglu is a long-standing
Embassy contact who regularly attends official events. He
recently returned to Baku after spending several months
studying in the DC area as a Fulbright scholar.


4. (S//NF) Ilgar Ibrahimoglu: Iranian-educated cleric.

Ibrahimoglu is a well-known cleric and opposition-leaning
commentator. He was the imam at a historic mosque in Baku,
but the authorities removed him in late 2003 due to his
growing base of popular support. He was charged with
participating in a violent opposition-organized demonstration
against the results of the 2003 Presidential election.
Ibrahimoglu continues to lead unofficial prayer groups in
private homes. As a consequence of this episode, Ibrahimoglu
is currently not allowed to travel outside of Azerbaijan.
Ibrahimoglu's public comments focus on the need for enhanced
human rights and religious freedom in Azerbaijan. He leads a
local NGO, DEVAMM, that focuses on religious freedom and
broader human rights concerns, and maintains good
relationships with a range of civil society activists.
Ibrahimoglu has been politically active in the past,
campaigning actively in the 2005 parliamentary election on
behalf of opposition candidate Rauf Arifoglu. He likely will
play an active role on behalf of the opposition in the 2008
presidential campaign. Ibrahimoglu also has been a vocal
critic of U.S. and western policies that he perceives to be
un-Islamic, leading small political protests during the
Prophet Mohamed cartoon controversy and during
Israeli-Lebanese hostilities in the summer of 2006.

Background: Ibrahimoglu is a Shia, with some theological
training in Iran. The authorities watch him closely because
he has publicly criticized the GOAJ's human rights record and
because of his links to Iran. He is probably in his late 30s
or early 40s.

Geographic Area: Ibrahimoglu is based in Baku and reaches
national audiences through DEVAMM activities and regular
media appearances. He also has extensive international
contacts through international human rights organizations.

Forums for his influence: In print media and lectures.
Unlike Geyushov and Gasimoglu, Ibrahimoglu probably is more
widely respected among devout believers because of his
theological education and perceived "persecution" by the
GOAJ. He is believed to exercise considerable influence
among his network of underground followers, although recent
reporting indicates that there may be a split in his
community.

Disagreements with U.S. Policy: Ibrahimoglu has a track
record for publicly criticizing U.S. policy in Iraq and
throughout the Muslim world. He argues that U.S. policy in
Muslim countries is often counterproductive and favors
corrupt, authoritarian regimes. He has led and participated
in peaceful protests against Western and Israeli actions that
are perceived to be un-Islamic, including a small march
against the U.S. Embassy in July 2006. He has never publicly
advocated violence against the U.S or other governments.

Ideological position regarding jihad: Unknown, although
Ibrahimoglu has occasionally condemned al-Qaeda for its
terrorist activities.

Derogatory information: A body of intelligence reporting
suggests Ibrahimoglu's links to Iran. It is difficult to
assess the precise nature of his past affiliation and whether
such links continue.

Current Relationship with USG: Ibrahimoglu is a
long-standing Embassy contact who also has long-standing
relationships with Washington-based USG officials. He is an
important source of information for our annual reports on
Human Rights and International Religious Freedoms. He
regularly attends official Embassy events. He has gone to
the U.S. under the International Visitors' Program.
DERSE