FADHILA BLOC LEADER DISCUSSES WITHDRAWAL FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 000842 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2017 TAGS: PGOV IZ SUBJECT: FADHILA BLOC LEADER DISCUSSES WITHDRAWAL FROM IRAQ'S SHI'A COALITION Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Charles O. Blaha for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Iraqi Shiite Fadhila bloc leader Hassan al-Shammari told PolOffs on March 8 that Fadhila's withdrawal from the Shi'a Coalition (UIC),announced March 7, is serious: "We will not return." Fadhila, he said, rejects the central political goal of the UIC, which he characterized as "federalism for the sake of breaking up Iraq." While Fadhila supports federalism and/or decentralization as a means of building a strong and united Iraq, al-Shammari continued, the dominant UIC factions want to split Iraq, a move that served "external actors" (he implied, but did not say, Iran). "We do not want to be part of a group that wants to destroy Iraq," al-Shammari said. He said that Fadhila was against coalitions based on sectarian or ethnic interest, such as the UIC, Tawafuq, and the Kurdish Alliance. "Iraq's main problem is sectarianism, and sect-based coalitions will not help solve Iraq's problems." Fadhila's leaders, including Ayatollah Yacoubi, have been planning this move and discussing it in party gatherings across the country for some time, al-Shammari claimed. "We announced it yesterday because the time was right." ¶2. (C) Al-Shammari said that Fadhila had no immediate plans to join any other coalition, but instead would remain an independent party. "We just dropped one bomb," he said. "We will wait for the reaction and let things settle before we think about dropping another." The reaction, al-Shammari said, had already started. CoR members Sami al-Askari (Shi'a independent and PM insider) and Baha al-Araji (Sadrist) have already attacked Fadhila for its withdrawal, al-Shammari said, noting that al-Araji did not represent all Sadrists. He also claimed that the Prime Minister made comments suggesting that Fadhila would achieve nothing outside of the UIC. (Note: Post could find no record of such comments. End note.) Al-Shammari predicted that UIC leaders would "say we are Baathists or want a return to the Baath party" in order to soil Fadhila's image in the eyes of the Shi'a public. ¶3. (C) In the face of these expected attacks, al-Shammari said that Fadhila leaders had vowed to remain quiet and "wait to see who else believes in a national Iraqi project." He predicted that elements within the UIC would welcome Fadhila's move, although they might not say so publicly at first. Al-Shammari also said he did not believe the marja'iya would pressure Fadhila to rejoin the Shia coalition: "They know our decision is final." Noting that others would claim Fadhila withdrew because it was not represented in the GOI (e.g., controlling a ministry), al-Shammari insisted the party's decision to withdraw was not linked to any dispute over ministerial appointments. "We are not requesting a ministry from the UIC but from the GOI," al-Shammari said. "We want to take part in the national unity government." ¶4. (C) Comment: We will provide a fuller analysis of what Fadhila's withdrawal means for the Shi'a coalition septel. Al-Shammari's explanation of the reasons for Fadhila's withdrawal was articulate and delivered as if it were part of a campaign message. End Comment. KHALILZAD