NINEWA'S FUEL CRISIS -- STILL BAD AND GETTING WORSE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000775 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/03/2017 TAGS: ECON EPET PGOV IZ SUBJECT: NINEWA'S FUEL CRISIS -- STILL BAD AND GETTING WORSE REF: A. (A) BAGHDAD 00682 ¶B. (B) BAGHDAD 00681 ¶C. (C) BAGHDAD 00677 ¶D. (D) BAGHDAD 00558 ¶E. (E) BAGHDAD 00539 ¶F. (F) BAGHDAD 00462 ¶G. (G) 06 BAGHDAD 03358 Classified By: Ninewa PRT Team Leader James Knight: 1.4 (B) and (D). This is a Ninewa Provincial Reconstruction Team (PRT) message. ¶1. (C) Despite constant iteration of the ongoing fuel crisis across Ninewa on the part of Provincial authorities to GOI Ministries in Baghdad and equally insistent efforts by Coalition authorities, shortages of all consumer fuels -- gasoline (benzene), diesel, kerosene, and LPG -- remain critical. Ongoing fuel shortages limit Iraqi security forces operations, constrain ordinary commerce, assure electricity shortages remain at crisis levels, and keep Ninewa's citizens from heating their homes or cooking food. Most critically, ongoing fuel shortages block Ninewa's economic recovery and keep ongoing redevelopment efforts funded through either GOI or Coalition funds from having discernable impacts -- as they have done since early 2006 (reftel G). ¶2. (C) The most recent index of the depth of Ninewa's fuel crisis has been the prospect of an abandoned agricultural season. Ninewa's Directors General for Agriculture and Water Resources both report that lack of electricity will prevent filling irrigation canals fed by Mosul Dam Reservoir. In view of this prospect, Ninewa's DG for Agriculture has advised affected farmers not to plant potatoes this year -- the affected acreage produces 30 per cent of Iraq's potato production. Worse, the DG for Agriculture reports that the province has received only 1 mn liters of the 53 mn liters of fuel allocated for this year's agricultural season; normally at least a quarter of this annual allocation has been received by this time to assure spring grain planting. ¶3. (C) PRTs and Coalition maneuver commanders in MND-N in partnership with Iraqi security forces continue to take all available and reasonable steps to address blocked operations at Bayji refinery. Similar steps are underway to facilitate electrical production for Ninewa in Syria and Turkey through export of heavy fuel oil produced at Bayji refinery (reftels A-C and E-F). However, it is unlikely these steps will alleviate Ninewa's fuel shortages in the short term. Similarly, the anticipated new hydrocarbon law may eventually improve Ninewa's fuel supply, but offers little hope for shorter-term relief. ¶4. (C) The only short-term resolution of Ninewa's fuel crisis appears to be resumed fuel imports from Turkey and Syria. Resumption of normal electricity imports from both countries would also ease fuel demand for kerosene for heating, LPG for cooking, and benzene and diesel for small-scale electricity generation. Current fuel flows from Turkey are extremely erratic and limited; as the most egregious example, no LPG has been imported from Turkey since September ¶2006. Fuels imported from Syria at this time appear only to feed the black market in incidental amounts. ¶5. (C) Comment: Immediate GOI action is required to resolve the contractual issues and political entanglements which continue to block adequate fuel imports from Turkey; similar GOI action will be required to resume heavy fuel oil shipments to Syria and Turkey to enable imports of electricity (cf. reftel D). Failure to ease Ninewa's fuel crisis will mean further exacerbated security, commercial, and economic conditions -- especially continued poor employment prospects -- and degraded credibility for Ninewa's provincial government, which is widely blamed for this continued crisis. ¶6. (C) Comment continued: Although warming weather will eventually ease the problem of household heating, both heating and cooking remain stark problems in Ninewa. Crowds of children and youths can be seen daily throughout Mosul and elsewhere in Ninewa collecting fallen branches and deadwood to burn in homes for both purposes. Mosul in particular is a BAGHDAD 00000775 002 OF 002 relatively modern city built to work on reasonably reliable electricity and fuel adequate for ordinary life and business -- the city's reversion to pre-industrial sources of heat is sharply poignant and a standing affront to Moslawis. End comment. KHALILZAD