PRT KIRKUK: POPULATION MOVEMENTS IN KIRKUK

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004222

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV PINS PINR IZ
SUBJECT: PRT KIRKUK: POPULATION MOVEMENTS IN KIRKUK

Classified By: PRT Leader Howard Keegan for reasons 1.4(b) and 1.4(d).

SUMMARY. (C) Kirkuk is experiencing major population shifts
due to a convergence of factors: its general population
growth, an influx of internally displaced persons (IDPs),the
departure of Arab wafidin (those whom Saddam imported to
balance the Kurdish population),and the arrival of Kurds
whom Saddam displaced. The registered population has grown
from roughly three-quarters of a million prior to 2003 to
well over a million today, in addition to 30-40,000 IDPs who
have sought refuge in the province. The numbers of Arabs who
have left Kirkuk and Kurds who have arrived are difficult to
measure, but the GOI,s High Commission for Article 140 has
made reasonable progress accepting applications and
disbursing compensation from both departing Arabs and inbound
Kurds. End summary.

Population Growing Rapidly
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2. (C) According to the provincial Director-General (DG) for
the Public Distribution System (PDS),the GoI,s food ration
program, there are 1,149,129 individuals registered to
receive rations in Kirkuk Province; the comparable 2003
figure was 636,945. The Provincial Director of the ID card
office reports that 1,353,700 individuals are registered to
reside in Kirkuk Province, but he did not have comparable
2003 data. Whatever the reason for the discrepancy between
the two offices, figures, it is clear that the province,s
population has increased dramatically from the 1997 census,
figure of 778,000.

IDPs Arriving From South
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3. (U) Kirkuk Province has an IDP population of
approximately 6,000 families, according to the Provincial
Displacement and Migration DG. Assuming six individuals per
family, this is approximately 36,000 individuals. (NOTE: In
this context, an IDP is someone not originally from Kirkuk
who has arrived since 2003. It does not include returnees
who were originally displaced from Kirkuk under the former
regime.) Most are Arabs who fled deteriorating security
situations in Baghdad, Diyala, Salah ad Din, and Anbar
Provinces for Kirkuk,s relative security. According to the
local office of Kurdish Human Rights Watch (KHRW),a local
UNHCR partner monitoring this IDP population, the majority of
these individuals have no interest in remaining permanently
in Kirkuk until the province,s future status (with its
possible implications for Kirkuk,s Arab community) under
Article 140 is known.


4. (U) The province,s 6,000 IDP families do not figure in
the population number in paragraph 2 because a provincial
policy in effect since 2003 does not permit an individual
born outside Kirkuk Province to register his or her residency
here. (Spouses and children of those born in the province,
however, may register.) This prevents them from obtaining an
ID card, a normal prerequisite to obtaining the food ration
card required to draw PDS rations. The Ministry of Trade
(which controls the PDS) issued a policy in 2006, however,
which states that these IDPs may use their home-province food
ration cards to obtain rations from Kirkuk,s PDS. According
to the Refugee Director and NGOs, anywhere from 60-250 IDP
families have taken advantage of this policy.

Article 140 Resettlement Compensation
--------------


5. (U) Under the approved resolutions of the GoI,s High
Committee for Article 140, &wafadin8 (&newcomer8) Arabs,
usually Shia, who came to Kirkuk Province under the previous
regime,s &Arabization8 program may apply for compensation
if they agree to return to their provinces of origin.
According to some PRT sources, many wafadin who came to
Kirkuk under the former regime,s Arabization program have
already returned to their original provinces, including many
of those applying for resettlement compensation. The local
office of the High Committee, which administers the program,
began receiving and processing resettlement compensation
applications in May 2007. By early December, the High
Committee,s local office had received applications from over
13,000 families; the representative of an Arab group
organized to facilitate compensation applications expects
applications from another 6,000 families.


6. (SBU) Following a variety of political and administrative
delays, the High Committee approved the first tranche of
applications in September. As of early December, the High

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Committee had approved payment checks for 2,700 applications
(the checks may be cashed at a designated bank in Kirkuk
city),of which the High Committee,s Kirkuk office had
distributed over 1,400. To prevent formation of crowds that
might draw terrorist attacks, the local office aims to
distribute about 100 checks per day, calling approved
applicants individually to inform them of the approval and
payment.


7. (U) Under the approved resolutions of the GoI,s High
Committee for Article 140, those the former regime displaced
from Kirkuk (mostly Kurds and, to a lesser extent, Turcomen)
also may receive compensation if they return. Out of the
13,000 applications as of December 1, 2,600 had been
submitted by Kurdish returnees and 10,500 by Arab wafadin.
Kurdish representatives from the High Committee believe
approximately 60,000 Kurdish families in total will apply for
Article 140 compensation. However, because the High Committee
prioritized processing wafadin applications, it has only
recently begun processing returnee applications. According
to several PRT sources, the vast majority of these applicants
already have resettled in the province since 2003.
CROCKER