ANBAR POLITICAL LEADERS DISCUSS POWER-SHARING

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004192 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/21/2017 TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ SUBJECT: ANBAR POLITICAL LEADERS DISCUSS POWER-SHARING FORMULA REF: BAGHDAD 3801 Classified By: Acting Political Counselor Robert Waller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (U) This is a PRT Anbar reporting cable. ¶2. (C) Summary. Four leading political figures from Anbar Province met in Amman, Jordan, on December 18 to lay plans for a power-sharing formula for the province,s main political factions. The plan they developed includes the creation of a &Higher Committee for Anbar,8 or an advisory body. It would also reconfigure and reapportion seats on the Provincial Council (PC) to comprise 40 seats rather than the current 48, but give the "Iraq Awakening Movement" (SAI) more representation in the process. The impetus for this plan is derived from PC leadership concerns that Ahmed Abu Risha and SAI will be a divisive force unless integrated into the PC. However, there are unanswered legal questions with respect to altering the structure of the PC and removing sitting PC members. Changes to the local political structure will also impact the dynamic of Anbar elections, should these occur in ¶2008. End Summary. Amman Meeting -------------- ¶3. (C) Four key Anbar political figures met in Amman, Jordan, on December 18 to lay plans for a power-sharing and local reconciliation formula to cover the province,s main political factions. PC Chairman Dr. Abdulsalam Abdullah and Anbar Governor Ma,amoun Sami Rasheed were joined by former Minister of State for Foreign Affairs Dr. Rafe Al-Essawi (Iraqi Islamic Party-IIP) at the office of Sheikh Tariq Al-Halbousi, a wealthy Anbari businessman and Chairman of the Anbar Central Committee, who resides in Amman. Notably absent was Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha, leader of the &Iraq Awakening Movement8 (SAI),who was in Ramadi. Two Initiatives -------------- ¶4. (C) The four leaders discussed two related initiatives combined in a package deal. The first was the establishment of an elite advisory body, referred to by Anbaris as the &Higher Committee (Al-Haya Al-Ulia) for Anbar.8 The Higher Committee would be composed of the following five power centers in Anbar: -- The Provincial Council, represented by Dr. Abdulsalam, Chairman of the PC; -- The Provincial Government represented by Governor Ma,amoun; -- The Anbar Sheikh,s Council, represented by one member, Sheikh Hameed Turki al-Shouka; -- The Anbar &Central Committee," or Anbar expatriates in Jordan, represented by Sheikh Tariq Al-Halbousi; -- SAI, represented by Sheikh Ahmed Abu Risha. ¶5. (C) The Anbaris acknowledged that the role and responsibilities for the Higher Committee need to be ironed out, but in general they envision it as a conflict-resolution mechanism for the province. They spoke of the committee as having an advisory role to the provincial government on transparency issues, especially regarding the allocation of resources. Abdulsalam expressed hope that if the Higher Committee could ease local friction, Anbar might be able to avert the political paralysis that is evident at the national level. He also sees the body as a further effort to shore up Sunni unity in Iraq,s post-conflict period. In his view, Anbar must stay united on the local scene so as to serve as a model for Sunni interests nationally. ¶6. (C) The second initiative in the package would be a revision of the PC membership. Today Anbar's PC consists of 48 members, in which the SAI controls 12 seats, 13 seats are apportioned to tribal sheikhs, and the balance - 23 seats - are controlled by the IIP. (Note: The PC is authorized 40 seats by law; the extra eight seats emerged from a November 2006 power-sharing arrangement between the IIP and the SAI's predecessor organization, the Anbar Awakening Council, led by Ahmed's brother, the late Sheikh Sattar Abu Risha. It is assumed, although still unclear, that all members would have full voting rights given this reconfiguration back to 40 seats on the PC. End note). The Impetus for a New Plan -------------- 7.(C) In November 2007, Ahmed led an SAI political offensive against the PC. In a November 14 letter, he called for Abdulsalam to be removed as Chair of the PC and suspended BAGHDAD 00004192 002 OF 002 SAI,s participation on the PC. Since then Ahmed has re-affirmed to Anbar and Coalition interlocutors alike that his intention is to decrease the number of IIP seats on the PC and hold a new election for PC Chairman. There has even been talk of SAI-sponsored street demonstrations to protest alleged corruption in the provincial government. The New Plan -------------- ¶8. (C) Sheikh Tariq and Abdulsalam described the new plan to reapportion the PC seats: -- The PC would be reduced to the original 40 seats, rescinding the key feature of the November 2006 power-sharing agreement. -- The SAI would be given 13 seats on the newly reconstituted PC, but only tribal sheikhs aligned with SAI would be allowed to join. This means that the current SAI PC members who are not sheikhs would be replaced. -- An additional 13 seats would be designated for sheikhs belonging to the Anbar Tribal Council, but not affiliated with the SAI. If adopted, this would mean that 26 of the Provincial Council,s 40 seats would be held by tribal sheikhs. -- The balance, 14 seats, would be controlled by the IIP. Among these would be an undetermined number of women. PC Chairman Abdulsalam observed that seven women were seated as members of the Provincial Council in 2005, but only three of them remain active PC members today. Legal Obstacles -------------- ¶9. (C) PC Chair Abdulsalam acknowledged that there are legal and procedural obstacles to any reapportionment of the PC. He observed that the November 2006 power-sharing agreement was relatively easy to implement because it provided for additional seats, rather than removing sitting members. By contrast, this new power-sharing plan would require the removal of an as-yet undetermined number of PC members. Both Abdulsalam and Governor Ma,amoun acknowledged that such removals might be subject to a court challenge. Mixed Reviews of Ahmed's Leadership Ability -------------- ¶10. (C) Sheikh Ahmed was not part of the Amman meetings, save for a phone conversation. During the time since his brother's death (Sheikh Sattar Abu Risha),his leadership has received mixed reviews. On the plus side, Ahmed has sought to position the SAI as a power broker with national clout, and has been engaged in an extended dance with PM Maliki on naming candidates to fill the Cabinet vacancies created by the August Tawafuq walkout. He has also reached out to Shia tribal and political leaders. On the downside, Ahmed is criticized for his prolonged absences from Anbar and his failure to consult adequately with SAI sheikhs. Moreover, Ahmed,s calls for Abdulsalam,s replacement, for SAI boycott of the PC, and for SAI-sponsored street demonstrations have fizzled (reftel). CROCKER