GOI TESTING THE WATERS ON PDS REFORM

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 004062 SIPDIS SENSITIVE SIPDIS E.O. 12958: N/A TAGS: ECON EAGR EFIN PGOV IZ SUBJECT: GOI TESTING THE WATERS ON PDS REFORM ¶1. (SBU) Begin Summary: In recent weeks, GOI officials, including the Ministers of Trade and Finance, have spoken publicly about the need to institute changes in the public distribution system (PDS). World prices for wheat alone, one of the commodities provided in the PDS basket, have risen significantly, spurring the need for a USD 522 million supplemental, which was grudgingly approved by the Council of Representatives (CoR) only after bitter debate. Prominent religious leaders rebuked the governmental calls for PDS reform, but the GOI's statements coupled with two contentious parliamentary sessions dominated by PDS (including the vote on the budget supplemental) indicate that the time for reform may be ripe. What previously we believed a political non-starter may, through a combination of fiscal pressures and political maturity, have become an issue for serious consideration. End Summary. -------------- Background -------------- ¶2. (U) The PDS is a massive food ration system that was introduced during the period of UN sanctions and was supplemented in 1996 under the Oil for Food program. In 2003, the Coalition Provisional Authority (CPA) assumed administration of the PDS; full control returned to the Transitional Government of Iraq in 2004-05. Although the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs targeted cash-based social safety-net program continues an expansion (with guidance from the World Bank),the PDS remains Iraq's primary safety net mechanism. ¶3. (U) The PDS system suffers from chronic inefficiencies. Currently, the number of beneficiaries registered to receive PDS benefits hovers around 27 million. While the PDS was essential during the period of UN sanctions to ensure the availability of food, sanctions are no longer in effect, and the primary reason for the PDS in its current form is no longer extant. A 2005 World Bank (WB) study of the PDS estimates that the cost of providing USD 1 worth of food to a poor beneficiary costs the government USD 6.30. Another significant issue is a lack of targeting. Between 2005 and 2007, the number of PDS beneficiaries registered increased by more than 2 million. During that time, barely more than 100 deaths were registered, and a simple search yielded 700,000 registrants with the same first and last name and date of birth. -------------- CoR Debates PDS Supplemental -------------- ¶4. (SBU) On November 15, the CoR approved a USD 522 million budget supplemental. (Note: While the measure was approved, the legislation was not passed to the Presidency Council for ratification, as is constitutionally mandated; rather, the CoR sent its endorsement directly to the Council of Ministers, which has given rise to legal ambiguity. End Note.) The issue sparked acrimonious debate, with supporters of the supplemental invoking the argument that poor Iraqis desperately needed support and detractors decrying that the real problem was corruption and not financing. A first vote failed, and in spite of ambiguity concerning the presence of a quorum of members, CoR Speaker Mahmoud Mashhadani held a second vote and declared the measure passed. ¶5. (SBU) During a November 22 meeting with Econoffs, Azez Hassan Jaffar, a senior advisor at the Ministry of Finance, stated that the Ministry of Finance considered the measure passed and would accordingly make the funds available to the Ministry of Trade (MoT). Similarly, in a December 13 meeting with EMIN, Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI) President Hussein al-Uzri expressed his belief that the budget supplemental had passed, and noted that the MoT had already spent USD 370 million over its 2007 budget allocation for the PDS for the ongoing fiscal year. He added that FinMin Bayan Jabr had called him earlier that same day instructing him to authorize an additional release of USD 48 million for the MoT to cover outstanding freight charges related to the transport of PDS commodities. -------------- First Step: Reducing Basket Commodities -------------- ¶6. (SBU) Dr. Haider al-Abadi, Chairman of the CoR Committee on Economy, Investment and Reconstruction, told Econoff that the Ministry of Trade is working with the Council of Ministers Economic Committee as well as his own CoR committee on determining a way forward for PDS reform. He suggested that, at a minimum, the number of commodities would need to be reduced from 10 to 5, in an effort to provide higher quality goods over quantity. He predicted that a report on BAGHDAD 00004062 002 OF 002 recommendations for PDS reform would be ready by mid-2008. ¶7. (SBU) Ultimately, he thought that PDS in some form would persist for the short to medium term in order to maintain price stability, but that real efforts were underway to introduce means-testing and partial monetization of the benefit. Dr. Haider cited the lack of a robust national identification card and the moribund banking sector as the principal obstacles to monetization of the PDS. He hoped eventually the private sector would be able to efficiently procure basic foodstuffs, which would strengthen the argument that PDS is no longer necessary. ¶8. (U) Minister of Trade Abdul Falah al-Sudani, whose presence was demanded following the outcry during debate on the PDS supplemental, repeated similar plans for PDS reform in a December 3 presentation at the CoR. The draft Council of Ministers-approved budget which the CoR is currently debating straight-lines the PDS allocation at approximately USD 3.2 billion. Given increasing transportation costs and commodities prices, and viewed in light of the supplemental requested to cover 2007 PDS spending, the 2008 PDS allocation will likely be insufficient to cover program costs. -------------- Int'l Organizations also Engaged -------------- ¶9. (U) From November 18-20, the World Bank held a workshop for the MoT on management of the PDS. The workshop was a follow up of the Bank's 2005 study which found that the PDS, while effective in reaching the poor and maintaining a minimum standard of living, does so expensively and inefficiently. WB staff considered the workshop successful and were impressed with the openness of the MoT team in discussing shortcomings of the system. The Bank is expected to release a report soon outlining its analysis of the PDS as well as recommendations for reform. ¶10. (SBU) WB staff have met with the OECD Representative in Baghdad and the World Food Program Country Director. Both organizations are interested in coordinating with the World Bank to provide additional assistance. The WB is currently considering its options on engaging in PDS reform. Furthermore, in an unreleased IMF report, the GOI has indicated to the Fund that, "in addition to enhanced monitoring and improved procurement procedures, the (GOI is) considering to limit the rations in the PDS, and to further limit eligibility of well-off families." -------------- Sistani Opposed to Reform -------------- ¶12. (U) Following MoT al-Sudani's public calls for reducing the number of commodities provided by the PDS, a representative of Grand Ayatollah Ali Sistani lashed out at government plans for changing the PDS, claiming that most vulnerable Iraqis would suffer. Additionally, op-ed commentators in the local press have been mixed, with some expressing strong support and others opposition to the rumors that PDS reform may be in the offing. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶13. (SBU) The GOI's second real experience crafting a budget called for making some tough decisions on priorities, and the PDS seems to have been an easy target for reduction given its notoriously grand inefficiencies. Still, careful implementation of whatever reforms are agreed will be crucial. Simply reducing the number of commodities provided is an obvious first target. Also, making the system means-tested is probably among the initial reforms that need to be taken, but GOI capacity is severely limited in this regard. Here GOI public relations efforts will need to be marshaled to demonstrate to the public that the eligibility limitations are fair and equitable and are not sectarian-based. We will continue to monitor the situation closely and report developments as they arise. End Comment. BUTENIS