INDEPENDENT COR MEMBER SAYS LEGISLATION DELAYED BY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003823 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/17/2017 TAGS: PREF PGOV PINR IZ SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT COR MEMBER SAYS LEGISLATION DELAYED BY COR INEFFECTIVENESS, AYAD ALLAWI LOSING SUPPORT REF: A) BAGHDAD 3565 B) BAGHDAD 1956 C) BAGHDAD 3787 Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C/NF) Summary. Independent CoR member Safia Souhail (Shia, former Iraqiyya) told Poloff unnecessary delays with de-ba'athification and other laws are occurring because of sectarianism and ineffective CoR leadership. She is doubtful the de-ba'athification law will receive the votes necessary to pass in the CoR. Safia, along with several other members, withdrew from (IIG) former PM Ayad Allawi's Iraqiyya party during the last several months. She said Allawi is losing support within his own party because he is spending too much time outside the country. She is standing on the sidelines of the moderate, independent party being formed by another independent CoR member, Hachim Hassani. Regarding other political parties, she said Tawafuq is becoming weaker, mainly due to VP Hashimi, and that former (ITG) PM Jafari is making national headway in forming a bloc with the Sadr, Fadila, and Solidarity parties. End summary. CONTROVERSY OVER DE-BA'ATH, COR INEFFECTIVENESS -------------- -- ¶2. (C/NF) Independent CoR member Safia Souhail (Shia, former Iraqiyya) told PolOff on November 16 that CoR legislation is being delayed unnecessarily because of sectarianism and lack of effective CoR leadership. She mentioned the public shouting match between Speaker Mahmoud Mashadani and Deputy Speaker Khalid Attiyah on November 14 -- when the de-ba'ath law was to be introduced to the CoR session -- as a prime example (ref A). She is doubtful the law will pass the CoR, and said, "I am not convinced that there can be amnesty or property reclamation without changes in Iraq's court system." She believes amnesty towards former Ba'athists needs to be taken step-by-step, but admitted those Ba'athists who did not commit any crime should not be punished. (Comment: Safia's father was assassinated by former Iraqi regime agents. She supports national reconciliation, but her personal background underscores the sensitivity of this legislation and the issue among some CoR members. End Comment). ¶3. (C/NF) Safia is not a member of any committee in the CoR, but prefers working across many of them unofficially. She told PolOff she disagrees with the way committee memberships are allotted in the CoR by party membership rather than professional expertise. Safia said CoR Speaker Mashadani no longer has support from VP Hashimi or Tawafuq. She said when Mashadani was placed on indefinite leave in June (ref B),he was almost replaced by IIP CoR member Ayad Sammaraie before a "deal was made." She confided Mashadani told her during a recent trip he will resign at the end of the year or session. (Comment: Speaker Mashadani has not mentioned this to USG officials. It is unlikely Mashadani will resign from his position unless he is forced out or has something else lined up. However, CoR member Hachim Hassani in a separate meeting told us that PM Maliki raised the Speaker position with him in September (ref C). End Comment). IRAQIYYA - ALLAWI LOSING SUPPORT -------------- ¶4. (C/NF) According to media reports, Safia Souhail withdrew from Iraqiyya in late September 2007 after former PM Ayad Allawi's meetings with former Ba'athists became public knowledge. Others who quit Iraqiyya to become independent this year include Mehdi Hafedh and Hachim Hassani. Safia said several others may leave, naming Mufid Muhammad Jawad al-Jaza'iry, Hamid Majid Mousa, and Wael al-Latif al-Fadal. (Note: PolOff met with Wael al-Latif on November 21. He confirmed he may depart Iraqiyya, depending on future reforms within the party. (septel). End Note). She noted that Allawi is "almost like a brother to her," but claimed he spends too much time outside the country to be an effective party leader. Many Iraqiyya members are frustrated with the amount of time Allawi is spending visiting neighboring countries rather than focusing on the party's organization in Iraq. (Comment: Even members of other parties, such as Hewar and IIP, are commenting offhand that Allawi's excessive travel is weakening his popularity and stature in Iraq. End comment). INDEPENDENT, MODERATE BLOC FORMING -------------- ¶5. (C/NF) When asked whether she is aware of a new moderate bloc forming, Safia said Hachim Hassani is leading this effort (ref C),but added that she prefers to remain "independent" of any party affiliation. However, she is working with the independents in the CoR to see how they can BAGHDAD 00003823 002.2 OF 002 work effectively together as an alliance or caucus. She added Mehdi Hafedh is also part of this effort, but said it is in the early stages. STATUS OF GOI POLITICS -------------- ¶6. (C/NF) Regarding other political parties, Safia volunteered that Tawafuq is becoming "very weak." She complained that VP Hashimi (IIP) is an obstacle to progress in the Parliament and has vetoed many pieces of legislation. She is not optimistic that PM Maliki and VP Hashimi will resolve their differences. Regarding PM Maliki, she said "He does not have much support, but there is no one to replace him." She thinks VP Adil Abd al-Mahdi is a capable leader and also mentioned Jafari is picking up more support among the Sadr, Fadila, and the Solidarity parties. BIO NOTE -------------- ¶7. (C/NF) Safia Souhail's father, Sheikh Taleb al-Souhail, was the former chief of the Bani Tamim tribe in the central part of Iraq. Her family fled from Iraq after the Ba'ath coup d'etat of 1968, but she said Saddam's agents managed to assassinate her father in exile in Lebanon in 1994. All of the family's property was confiscated and her family remained outside of Iraq, with her mother and six sisters in Jordan. She mentioned she was to be nominated as Ambassador to Egypt, not specifying the exact timeframe, but said it fell through due to political reasons. Her family is wealthy and she is active in civil society efforts/NGOs. In 2003, she was the Advocacy Director for the Middle East and Islamic World at the International Alliance for Justice and publisher of the independent newspaper "Al Manar al-Arabi." She is married and both she and her husband live in Baghdad. Her son lives in Jordan with extended family. She is a good interlocutor with USG officials and speaks English fluently. CROCKER