AMAR AL-HAKIM: SUPPORT FOR SPD, MOVING AHEAD ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003799

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: AMAR AL-HAKIM: SUPPORT FOR SPD, MOVING AHEAD ON
FEDERALISM

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In a November 16 meeting, Islamic Supreme
Council of Iraq (ISCI) heir apparent Amar al-Hakim told the
Ambassador that ISCI strongly supports a Strategic
Partnership Declaration (SPD) and that he would convey ISCI's
support for a long-term bilateral partnership to Prime
Minister Nuri al-Maliki. The black-turbaned Amar also
briefed on the recent formation of a council comprised of the
governors of nine southern Shia-majority provinces, a
possible first step toward achieving ISCI's stated objective
of a southern region. Amar claimed that such diverse groups
and individuals like the Sadrists, the Fadhila Party,
ex-Baathists, and Sunni firebrand Harith al-Dhari were
warming to the notion of federalism, though no consensus view
had yet emerged. Amar was joined by CoR member and Badr
supremo Hadi al-Amri who complained about CoR Speaker
Mashadani's handling of the draft De-Baathification Law but
noted that Mashadani now claims to support the bill, though
it is opposed by the Sadrists. Both Hadi and Amar expressed
concern over implementation details of Maliki's proposed
general amnesty program, and Amar predicted that the
stranglehold of Sadrist gangs over services in some areas
would be broken by improved GOI institutions. Amar expressed
lingering concern about Sadrist shenanigans within the
Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC),commenting that
problems within IHEC could complicate future elections. End
Summary.

ISCI Supportive on SPD
--------------


2. (C) The Ambassador updated Amar on his discussions with
Maliki over the text of a proposed declaration, emphasizing
the importance we place on finalizing and issuing a joint
statement in the coming week. He expressed appreciation for
the supportive role ISCI and ISCI senior official (and GOI
Vice President) Adel Abdel Mehdi had played in the SPD
process to date and urged Amar and his father, ISCI Chairman
Abdel Aziz, to use their considerable influence to encourage
Maliki to move forward on the declaration and allay any
Maliki concerns about negative domestic reaction to the
agreement. Amar replied that ISCI thinks the SPD advances
both Iraqi and American national interests, and has been
discussing the issue with Iraqi leaders. Amar noted that VP
Adel had spent a lot of time working on the declaration but
that Maliki had assumed personal responsibility over the
process because "Maliki thinks it is better that way." Amar
said ISCI would continue to encourage Maliki to build a real
long-term bilateral partnership and he would discuss any
reservations Maliki might have about going forward with the
declaration. The Ambassador stressed that the declaration
would be an affirmation of Iraq's sovereignty, adding that it
would be followed by a final UNSCR renewal, and urged ISCI's
full support.

Emergence of De Facto ISCIstan?
--------------


3. (C) An avowed advocate for the formation of a southern
region comprising Iraq's Shia-majority provinces, Amar
briefed on a November 7 meeting in Diwaniyah of the governors
of nine southern provinces (Basrah Governor Waeli did not
attend but sent a representative),many of whom are
affiliated with ISCI/Badr. According to Amar, the governors
decided to form a council that would meet periodically to
discuss and tackle common problems. The council would be
chaired on a one-month rotating basis among the nine
governors, and the chairman would be tasked with representing
the council in dealings with the central government, thus
giving the nine provinces greater collective weight. Both
Amar and Badr strongman Hadi al-Amri claimed that Iraqis were
warming to the concept of federalism, and Amar cited a public
opinion poll that showed public acceptance of federalism had
jumped from 18 to 46 percent in the last few months. Amar
said that even such diverse groups and individuals as the
Sadrists, the Fadhila Party, ex-Baathists, and Sunni
firebrand Harith al-Dhari were coming around on the notion of
federalism, though no consensus view on the practical concept
of federalism had yet emerged. Hadi al-Amri noted that
Sunnis used to equate federalism with "godlessness," but are
slowly beginning to see its virtues. Regarding Vice
President Tareq al-Hashemi's position on federalism, Hadi
stated that "his mind says yes but his heart says no."

Pending Legislation and Amnesty Proposal
--------------


4. (C) As head of the CoR Defense and Security Committee and
a key drafter of the so-called "Leaders' Draft" of the
De-Baathification Law (Law on Accountability and Justice),
Hadi attributed much of the delay in bringing the bill to the

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CoR floor to the conduct of CoR Speaker Mashadani. He
claimed Mashadani had tried to bring a competing draft of the
De-Baath law to the floor, even after Hadi objected and
pointed out the draft Mashadani favored had not been approved
by the top GOI leaders or the CoR's Political Council.
Mashadani later complicated the matter further when he
declared in the presence of the Sadrist bloc that the USG
preferred the "Leaders' Draft" in an attempt to whip up
Sadrist opposition. Hadi said Mashadani told him recently
that he now supports the "Leaders' Draft." He mentioned that
he was unpleasantly surprised to learn that Radio al-Hurra
was publicly urging the CoR to pass the bill. Hadi predicted
the CoR would pass a draft Provincial Powers law, noting that
the Sunni public and the Anbar Awakening are eager for
provincial elections while the Sunni Iraqi Islamic Party is
not.


5. (C) Asked by the Ambassador about Maliki's reported
proposal of a general amnesty, both Amar and Hadi expressed
concern over implementation details. For example, Hadi
claimed the Iraqi constitution allows the Prime Minister to
grant only special amnesty in individual cases, and that only
the CoR can approve general amnesty in the form of
legislation, over which there currently is no consensus. He
said he would support amnesty in all but those cases
involving terror, narcotics trafficking, and other limited
areas. Amar questioned whether general amnesty was an
appropriate measure under the circumstances, repeating an
anecdote he claimed to have heard from an unnamed American
general that after an MNF-I release of 5000 detainees several
years ago, MNF-I ended up re-arresting 18 percent for new
offenses committed after their release.

Sadrist Mellowing?
--------------


6. (C) The Ambassador noted signs of improving relations
between ISCI and its rival Shia movement, the Sadr Trend, and
asked about Sadrist direction. Amar replied that Sadrist
gangs have proven adept at controlling service and protection
rackets in some areas (he claimed to have heard stories that
Sadrist protection gangs demand the equivalent of about USD
45 per month from each household in areas they control for
"security" fees, and also operate numerous gas stations) but
that their grip is being loosened and will eventually be
broken as GOI security forces and institutions grow in
strength and competence. He said he had heard that Moqtada
al-Sadr ordered his followers to stop such rackets, thus
stripping such activities of legitimacy. Amar stated that,
overall, the Sadrists appear to be moderating their
positions. He cited the appearance of Sadrist CoR member
Baha al-Araji and the Ambassador at last week's Dhi Qar
Forum, noting that a year ago a Sadrist would have never
agreed to participate alongside a USG official in a public
gathering.

Lingering Problems at Electoral Commission
--------------


7. (C) Recalling that Amar had previously expressed concern
about Sadrist shenanigans within the Independent High
Electoral Commission (IHEC),the Ambassador asked about the
current IHEC situation. Amar replied that IHEC is still
beset with problems and that "when the person in charge has
no integrity, the entire organization has no integrity." He
said the UN had sent a letter of concern to the CoR about the
IHEC, and that he had raised his concerns with President
Talabani. Amar warned that if the UN does not supervise
future provincial elections, the results of such elections
would be called into question and the process could create
conflict.
CROCKER