DPM BARHAM SALEH DISCUSSES LEGISLATION, TURKEY,

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 003732

SIPDIS

NOFORN
SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/12/2017
TAGS: EFIN PREL PGOV IR IZ
SUBJECT: DPM BARHAM SALEH DISCUSSES LEGISLATION, TURKEY,
MINISTERIAL CHANGES, AND OTHER ISSUES

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S/NF) Summary: In a November 6 meeting, DPM Barham Saleh
told the Ambassador, U/S Jeffery, and S/I Satterfield that
passage of the de-Ba'athification law is possible, but he is
not as confident on the oil law. He noted the Council of
Ministers (CoM) signed on to the de-Ba'athification law and
Deputy CoR Speaker Attiyah is not opposed to it, but that
there is no "political will to pass it." On Turkey and the
PKK, he thanked the USG for its efforts to improve the
situation, but was reminded by the Ambassador that the
problems will not go away if steps are not taken against the
PKK. Regarding ministerial changes, Saleh said PM Maliki has
selected Ahmad Chalabi to become Minister of Communications
and thinks the new ministerial appointments for Agriculture
and Health will remain, despite some objections in the CoR.
He commented on the turmoil of Iraqi internal politics and
dissatisfaction among the Kurds, Sunnis, and even ISCI and
said power-sharing and reviving the 3 1 leadership
arrangement can help improve this status. End summary.

LEGISLATION - DE-BA'ATH AND OIL LAWS, AND THE BUDGET
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2. (S/NF) Regarding the de-Ba'athification and hydrocarbon
laws, DPM Barham Saleh said, "The de-Ba'athification law can
be done, but I am not sure on the oil law." He said the
Kurds are stuck on an earlier (February draft) of the
hydrocarbon/oil law. In response to a question from S/I
Satterfield regarding his knowledge of the ten Kurdish
contracts, Barham said, "I do not know the details, I have
not seen them." He lamented that Oil Minister Shahristani is
not helping with the efforts to pass the oil law and said he
is "not good news."


3. (S/NF) On the de-Ba'athification law, DPM Saleh noted the
CoM "all signed on to it" and it was subsequently sent to the
CoR. He noted Deputy Speaker Khalid Attiyah is "not opposed
to it," but added the political will is not there to pass it.
In response to whether the CoM could send the "correct"
leadership version of the de-Ba'athification law to the CoR
(again),Saleh negated this prospect given the CoM already
voted on the issue. When the Ambassador asked whether the
Presidency Council could send the de-Ba'athification law to
the CoR, he responded there is support among VP Adil abd
al-Mahdi, President Talabani, and VP Hashimi, but he did not
indicate whether the Presidency Council would do so.
However, to get the discussions moving, DPM Saleh said he
would commence a preparation group in the near future to push
the issue. When the de-Ba'athification law reaches the CoR,
DPM Saleh said the CoR should just "vote up or down" on the
law to pass it.


4. (S/NF) On the budget DPM Saleh said the GOI will be
finalizing the budget very soon. He said right now they have
decreased the security portion of the budget to 8.4 billion
USD instead of 9 billion USD. He noted the 9 billion USD is
tough to get at since the IMF is asking that a small portion
of oil revenues be deposited into the DFI instead of the GOI
budget. The Ambassador and S/I Satterfield pushed back,
saying that 9 billion USD is a better figure given security
needs. Saleh also noted that President Talabani signed for
275 million USD in the Dhi Qar area for security in reference
to the Nasiriyah forum on November 10.

TURKEY AND THE PKK
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5. (S/NF) When the topic switched to the escalating tensions
between the Kurds and Turkey over the PKK, DPM Saleh noted,
"The USG's position on Turkey saved us." The Ambassador, in
response, stressed that the problems with Turkey will not go
away until the GOI and Kurds address the long-term problems
with the PKK. DPM Saleh raised the restrictions on travel
and delays caused at the Irbil airport as one of the side
effects of the crisis.


6. (S/NF) DPM Saleh expressed his concern of the long-term
threat of the PKK on stability in the North and noted, "I am
not a friend of the PKK, they are a threat to us." He added
there are things the GOI can do to prevent their access, such
as sharing intelligence with the Turks. He asserted that an
attack from Turkey against the PKK would decimate the North
and lead to another cycle of violence. DPM Saleh said the
PKK crisis has reinforced that the Kurds need to play a role
in the GOI. He also criticized PM Maliki's handling of the
crisis and said he did not use the political leverage
necessary to resolve the situation. S/I Satterfield
encouraged more KRG representation on the issue. DPM Saleh
praised the Ambassador's trip to the Kurdish region on
November 8 as a sign of bringing the senior leaders in the

KRG together. He urged the USG's help in getting the Turks
to provide amnesty to the PKK as a key part of a long-term
solution.

MINISTERIAL CHANGES
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7. (S/NF) DPM Saleh said PM Maliki has offered the Ministry
of Communications position to Ahmad Chalabi. (Note: Ahmad
Chalabi is temporarily running the Services Committee given
Zawba'i's resignation from his role as DPM and
responsibilities over services. There is no official
nomination from PM Maliki's office yet on Chalabi. End
note). Sheikh Attiyah told DPM Saleh there was fifty-percent
quorum when the session started during the vote on the
Minister of Agriculture (Dr. Ali Hussain al-Bahadili) and
Minister of Health (Dr. Salih Mahdi Muttalib al-Hsnawi) even
though some CoR members left the room later. (Note: Due to
objections of some CoR members during the approval process on
October 30, however, these ministerial appointments were
referred to the legal committee for more deliberations and a
final report will be submitted to the Presidency Council of
the CoR. There is no final ruling yet. End note). He made
a special note of saying that Speaker Mashadani was "not
happy" with the ministerial nominations and left the room as
a demonstrative gesture to show his opposition. Regarding
ministerial-parliamentary relations, DPM Saleh emphasized
that both parts of the GOI need to do a better job of working
together.

INTERNAL POLITICS - CURRENTLY WEAK
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8. (S/NF) DPM Saleh emphasized during the discussion that the
political situation is going in the wrong direction right now
and will worsen if "political will" doesn't improve. He
recently met with VP Hashimi and said Tawafuq must "get its
act together" and decide whether or not it will return to the
government or will become even weaker. He also commented the
Kurds are unhappy on how the GOI is handling the Turkey issue
and are feeling sidelined. He noted SCIRI (now ISCI) is not
pleased with limited economic improvements. While not
criticizing PM Maliki directly, he urged the Ambassador to
push the Sunnis and PM Maliki in the right direction to fix
these dynamics.


9. (S/NF) DPM Saleh commented that the oil and de-Ba'ath laws
in the near-term will not be as important as power-sharing in
the government. He noted the Sunnis are desperate, and the
Kurds are feeling it -- but not as badly. The Ambassador
stressed the use of the 3 1 mechanism and exchange of views
to bring concerns to the table. DPM Saleh also noted he
thought there should be a "core cabinet" instead of the large
CoM to improve decisionmaking in the GOI.

IRAN
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10. (S/NF) DPM Saleh asked the Ambassador regarding the
release of nine Iranians who represented themselves as
Iranian diplomats, but are part of the Iranian Revolutionary
Guard. The Ambassador responded that two of the five Quds
Forces members arrested in Irbil were released. Saleh
responded, "We must keep the Iranians in suspense since the
situation is getting worse." He also mentioned the
overwhelming influence of Iran in the GOI.
CROCKER