AL-HAKIM IDENTIFIES PROGRESS, OBSTACLES TO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003716

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/11/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS IZ
SUBJECT: AL-HAKIM IDENTIFIES PROGRESS, OBSTACLES TO
POLITICAL DEVELOPMENT

Classified By: POLCOUNS MATT TUELLER FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) Summary: In a November 11 talk with Special Assistant
to the President and Senior Director for Iraq and Afghanistan
Brett McGurk, ISCI defacto leader Ammar al-Hakim identified
recent positive developments but cautioned that true
reconciliation required more political progress. He
expressed concern over Turkey's intentions in Iraq, discussed
ISCI's efforts to bring the Sadrists into the political
process, said Iran wanted to resume its dialogue with the US,
and complained over ISCI/Badr prisoners in American custody.
McGurk said the goal of his visit to Baghdad was to finalize
a declaration of principles to frame a long-term relationship
between the United States and Iraq. He also wished to
discuss with Hakim recent reconciliation efforts, the
relationship between ISCI and the United States, and the
prospect for an emerging national vision based on principles
of federalism and division of authority between Baghdad and
the provinces. End Summary.

Reconciliation and the Declaration of Principles
-------------- ---


2. (C) In his introductory remarks Hakim identified several
recent positive developments, including indications armed
groups are willing to participate in politics and increased
revenue from the rising price of oil. While acknowledging
recent progress on reconciliation, Hakim said more political
progress was needed and criticized political leaders for
acting based on personal rather than national interests.
"Reconciliation is more than just agreements and signatures
on paper, but continuous contact and relations between
parties," he added. Hakim said the ideal division of powers
between the provincial and central government was still
unclear and that Iraq could learn from the experiences of
other countries governed by a federal system, especially the
US.


3. (C) McGurk said the goal of his visit was to complete a
Declaration of Principles by November 20 to form a long-term
relationship between Iraq and the United States. Such a
declaration, he explained, will define a common vision for
both countries and send an important signal to the region.
Hakim expressed his strong support for a long-term
relationship between Iraq and the United States and noted
past public speeches of his on the importance of the
relationship, including a sermon during the Eid holiday.
McGurk expressed appreciation for Hakim's grassroots
reconciliation efforts with Shaykh Ahmed al-Rishawi, noting
they serve as an example for Iraq's national leadership.

Concerns over Turkey
--------------


4. (C) Hakim expressed concern over tension with Turkey,
saying some statements by Turkish officials suggested
Turkey's goals extended beyond operations against the PKK.
He added though that KRG officials are increasingly willing
to listen to Iraqis encouraging moderation. McGurk
identified three steps to resolving the current crises: 1)
KRG actions against the PKK, 2) Reinstatement of the
trilateral process with the US, Iraq, and Turkey; and 3) A
longer term solution possibly including an amnesty offer to
PKK and fighters and the return of refugees. McGurk said the
first step was critical to moving to the second and third
phases and urged ISCI to reinforce the message that the KRG
must move against the PKK.

Bringing in the Sadrists
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the subject of the Sadr movement, Hakim
said ISCI is gradually convincing the Sadrists to trust in
political institutions. Hakim mentioned the agreement signed
between ISCI and the Sadr Trend and said the two sides
continued to hold regular talks. He said that in the
beginning the Sadrists believed their members were unfairly
targeted in raids and police actions. According to Hakim,
ISCI responded by explaining there was a choice between a
government of law and a government of militias, and any
person acting against the law needed to be punished. The
best way to reconcile political differences, he said, is to
present arguments to the people and let them decide through
voting.

Iran ready to talk
--------------


6. (C) Hakim speculated that Iranian influence was
responsible for the recent decrease of violence and Sadr's
declaration of a 'freeze' on JAM. He said Iran was anxious
to continue its dialogue with the US but was disappointed in

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the most recent round of talks. Hakim explained that Iran
brought many technical experts in expectation of substantive
talks but found the agenda limited and thought the US "was
not serious" about the negotiations. He added that this was
Iran's view and did not know whether it was correct. He
concluded by saying that no one wished for war and joked that
"the Great Satan and the Axis of Evil should resolve their
affairs outside of Iraq's borders." McGurk said Iran has a
strategic choice to make and that it must stop its lethal
activities in Iraq. This was the message from the first
round of talks, explained McGurk, adding that Iran knows what
it must do to set the conditions for more constructive talks
on the situation in Iraq. McGurk acknowledged that
Iranian-sponsored violence against the Coalition and Iraqis
appears to have decreased in recent weeks but added that this
trend must continue. Hakim said that he and other ISCI
leaders have repeatedly and consistently sent this same
message to Tehran.

Unlocking a National Vision
--------------


7. (C) McGurk asked about an emerging consensus on the
principles of federalism, noting views on the issue have
evolved since 2004, when neither the Sunni or any Shi'a
parties, including ISCI, supported federalism. Hakim
responded that the Sunnis, particularly in Anbar, are indeed
beginning to see federalism's benefits to their community.
He noted that although federalism is a system designed to
benefit minorities, Iraq's minorities have long opposed the
concept. Hakim added that Sunnis are beginning to support
federalism as the proper model for Iraq and noted that
grassroots efforts in Ramadi and Karbala might soon lead to a
national conference in which the same principles can be
discussed on a broader level. McGurk said the United States
supports this important conversation and hopes it will lead
to a national consensus among political leaders on the
division of authority between the central, provincial, and
regional governments. Such a consensus, McGurk concluded,
could help unlock a number of key reconciliation issues.

Embarrassment over ISCI prisoners
--------------


8. (C) Both parties agreed on the importance of a strong
ISCI-US relationship. Hakim noted a lack of trust that has
existed and raised the issue of ISCI/Badr prisoners in
American custody. He complained that ISCI never saw any
credible evidence to support their detention and that many
were arrested based on "false reports." Hakim promised ISCI
would support the imprisonment of any suspects directly
linked to crimes and suggested turning over the cases to the
Iraqi judicial system. He added that the issue had been
raised in many high-level meetings and called the lack of any
resolution "embarrassing" to the ISCI leadership. Hakim
noted the pace of engagement between ISCI and US officials in
Baghdad had slowed and expressed hope that regular meetings
would resume in the near future. McGurk mentioned the
recripocal relationship between ISCI and the US and urged
Hakim to cooperate closely with the US in combating lethal
aid networks in the south. He agreed to raise the detainee
issue at the appropriate channels.

Comment
--------------

9 (C) Hakim is a charismatic and energetic young leader and
poised to take the helm of ISCI from his ailing father, Abd
al-Aziz al-Hakim. His impact will likely be greater than his
father's and we should cultivate his talents, as one of many
emerging transitional leaders, to advance our long-term
interests in Iraq. Hakim's outreach to the Anbar Awakening
and his vocal support for a long-term relationship between
Iraq and the US indicate his potential as a leader whose
interests are generally aligned with our own. End Comment.
CROCKER