KIRKUK REFERENDUM: PROBLEMS WITH KURDISH FOCUS ON

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 003693 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/07/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM IZ SUBJECT: KIRKUK REFERENDUM: PROBLEMS WITH KURDISH FOCUS ON 1957 CENSUS AS POINT OF REFERENCE FOR VOTER REGISTRY REF: BAGHDAD 3442 Classified By: PolCouns Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) One obstacle of many to holding a referendum on the status of Kirkuk, as required by Article 140 of the Iraqi Constitution (the Article 140 Referendum),is the lack of a credible voter registry. The Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is currently working to develop a national voter registry based on the Ministry of Trade's Public Distribution System database, but it is not scheduled for completion until early February 2008 (reftel). ¶2. (C) A second obstacle is the lack of defined Article 140-specific voter eligibility requirements, such as a minimum period of residency. These requirements will be used to modify the base voter registry to create an Article 140-specific voter registry. Based on the IHEC's current work plan to develop a national voter registry, post estimates that this modification would take two months and require a multi-week voter registration field exercise. Since the national voter registry is expected to be ready in February 2008, this implies that an Article 140-specific voter registry could be completed April 2008, assuming timely Government of Iraq (GOI) action to define voter eligibility. (Note: GOI interlocutors have suggested that there are two ways the GOI could define voter eligibility requirements: either the Council of Representatives could pass implementing legislation or the Prime Minister could issue implementing directives. End Note.) ¶3. (C) It should come as no surprise that accelerating availability of an Article 140-specific voter registry is a key Kurdish priority. Several Kurdish interlocutors have commented that the 1957 census will be used as the basis for the Article 140-specific voter registry. For example, Deputy Speaker of the Kurdistan National Assembly Kemal Kerkuki (KDP) told PRT officer that "he expects the Article 140 referendum to be held by the end of the year, with participation based on the 1957 census." United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) Deputy Special Representative to the Secretary General (DSRSG) Michael Schulenburg said Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh also told him that "the 1957 census will be used for the Article 140 referendum." Kurdistan Regional Government Minister of Extra Regional Affairs Dr. Mohammed Ihsan told emboffs that IHEC board members had attended the October 22 meeting of the Article 140 Committee, and that they had agreed to investigate digitizing the 1957 census records. ¶4. (U) Unfortunately a census is not equivalent to a voter registry. A typical census tabulates gender, race, ethnicity, religion, education, age, industry, and earnings. In order to ensure participation and accurate data, a census is anonymous. In contrast, a voter registry has named records and emphasizes fields relevant to voter eligibility, such as age, address, and election district. ¶5. (C) Schulenburg explained to poloff that the 1957 census was a well-regarded professional exercise, and that it was indeed anonymous. The United Nations Electoral Activities Division (EAD) in New York has retrieved a copy of the 1957 census from the University of Pennsylvania and is examining it. Schulenburg stated that the census had no names and could not be used as the basis for a voter registry. He also noted that his Kurdish interlocutors were dismayed to learn that the UN had an unblemished copy of the original 1957 census. ¶6. (C) Schulenburg warned that the UN would reject any attempts to reverse engineer the census and attach names, such as by cross referencing the census with internal security files, registration documents, real property records, or food distribution databases. Since the Kurds claim that the version of the 1957 census held by both the Kurds and the Ministry of the Interior has names, Schulenburg pointed out that the names must have been added after the census was conducted, which calls into question their legitimacy. Furthermore, Schulenburg objected to using any database that would disenfranchise large segments of the relevant population, such as two generations of Iraqis and the offspring of mixed marriages. "It raises serious human rights issues and we will not endorse it," he objected. The UN will consider the Article 140 referendum to be illegitimate, if it is based on a non-transparent and non-credible voter registry, he said. CROCKER