IRAQ: TALK AROUND BAGHDAD ON THE KRG PM QUESTION,

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003681

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2017
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQ: TALK AROUND BAGHDAD ON THE KRG PM QUESTION,
TALABANI SUCCESSION

Classified By: Acting Deputy Political Counselor John Rath for reasons
1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) Summary: In meetings during October-November, Kurdish
contacts in Baghdad provided useful insight into who might
replace the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) Prime
Minister, though none could provide a clear answer.
Additionally, Iraqi President Jalal Talabani's advisor Aram
Yarweissi discussed preparations for Talabani's eventual exit
from politics. End Summary.


2. (C) It first hit the news in late summer that KRG Prime
Minister Nechirvan Barzani - Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP)
- would be forced to step down at the end of 2007 to be
replaced by someone from the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan
(PUK) under a power-sharing deal between the two major
Kurdish parties struck when they merged their governments in
January 2006. The Kurdish diplomatic circuit since then has
been rife with speculation on potential outcomes. Many
thought Nechirvan would remain PM and were unsure what he
would do if he quit. Some speculated that he would take over
the business side of the Barzani family operation or even
move abroad. Some thought the dispute between KDP leader
Masood Barzani's son Masrur, the KDP intelligence chief, and
Nechirvan (Masood Barzani,s nephew) made it more likely that
he would leave.


3. (C) Most agreed that Nechirvan is an effective prime
minister who had attracted much investment and promoted the
Kurdistan region. All agreed that he holds enormous power.
Interlocutors mentioned Iraqi Deputy Prime Minister Barham
Saleh (PUK) as the mostly likely replacement, but most seemed
uncertain about what ultimately would occur. Ala Talabani
(PUK),niece of President Talabani, appeared resigned on
November 4 to the eventuality of a PUK member replacing
Nechirvan, but lamented that removing Saleh from Baghdad
could harm Kurdish interests here. Most contacts said they
approved of Saleh's performance in Baghdad, although some,
such as local PUK leader Sadoon Shafi, criticized Talabani
and Saleh for not doing enough for the Kurds. Two advisors
to DPM Saleh and President Talabani offered particular
insight on this Issue.

DPM Advisor: Nechirvan Probably Staying
--------------


4. (C) DPM Saleh advisor Lawen Hawezy, in a meeting with
Poloffs November 2, scoffed at the idea that anyone could
challenge Nechirvan for the premiership, saying he was too
connected and too strong to leave it. He had also
demonstrated the ability to bring prosperity and outside
investment to Kurdistan, Hawezy noted. He thought current
KRG Deputy PM Omar Fatah (PUK) was unlikely to be given the
job, nor was current Kurdistan National Assembly speaker,
Adnan Mufti (PUK). Hawezy expressed a low opinion of Fatah,
but he described Mufti as a good man who sees both sides of
an issue and is willing to negotiate. Unfortunately, this
more moderate stance has prevented him from being truly
powerful in the PUK, but it has earned him a measure of
respect, Hawezy said.


5. (C) According to Hawezy, DPM Saleh is still mulling over
his options, although he suggested the nomination is there
for the taking should Saleh want it, assuming the PUK decided
to replace Nechirvan. Describing factors in Saleh's
calculus, Hawezy said Saleh likes his current position and
sees himself as a leader for all of Iraq. Saleh is
ambitious, he said, and being in Baghdad positions him nicely
for future opportunities. He, unlike many of his
contemporaries in the KRG, speaks fluent Arabic and has
worked with all parts of Iraqi citizenry.

Talabani Advisor: Talabani Prefers That Nechirvan Remain
-------------- --------------


6. (C) Talabani's preference is to keep Nechirvan, who he
thinks has performed well, Talabani,s advisor Aram Yarweissi
said, although he would not say that Talabani had made a
decision. In Yarweissi's opinion, Nechirvan has not had
enough time to really execute his program as PM - he assumed
his position less than 2 years ago. Yarweissi thought
Nechirvan should be given time to finish all of the good
things he started. He also speculated that, should the
handover occur, a new government probably would not be in
place until April 2008.


7. (C) Yarweissi told Poloff Nov 4 that there are six
potential candidates from the PUK politburo that are vying to
replace Nechirvan for PM, but, in his view, none are
acceptable. Many are members of the so-called Old Guard of
the party - essentially those that have been party members
since their days in the mountains as peshmerga. These men

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were resistant to change, thoroughly corrupt, and
incompetent, he said. Yarweissi opined that, if the PUK was
to replace Nechirvan, it needed an equally impressive
candidate.


8. (C) He, like many others, thought Saleh would not want to
leave Baghdad to take the job, though he admitted that part
of Saleh's calculations include planning for his eventually
succeeding Talabani as general secretary of the PUK. He said
Saleh's rivals for post-Talabani primacy understand that a
good performance as KRG PM, combined with its opportunities
for patronage, could solidify Saleh's position as heir
apparent. This may stimulate attempts from within the party
to prevent him from assuming the position, he thought.

Independent Candidate a Possibility
--------------


9. (C) Another possibility was to nominate an independent
candidate, Yarweissi stated. An independent candidate would
bring a fresh, non-partisan perspective acceptable to all
sides, he said. There are several possibilities, but
Yarweissi identified Talabani's personal physician, "Dr.
Nismadoon," as the most likely independent candidate. He
said Nismadoon is well connected to both major Kurdish
parties, having previously been the personal physician of
Mustafa Barzani, father of current KRG president and KDP
leader Masood Barzani. He is a successful businessman with a
"multi-million dollar" medical practice and is politically
savvy and capable, according to Yarweissi.

Talabani Prepping Party for His Retirement
--------------


10. (C) Yarweissi said Talabani has already begun
preparations for his retirement. He expects that Talabani
will be through with Iraqi politics after his term as Iraqi
President expires in 2010. He may even retire from the PUK
at that time as well. Yarweissi has already noticed changes
in Talabani's behavior. In the past, Talabani handled most
of his correspondence personally - up to 200 letters daily -
but lately he has shifted this task to a team of subordinates
in Sulaymaniyah, Yarweissi said. He also noted that when
Talabani led a delegation to the United States in
September-October he referred most decisions along the way to
KRG Vice President and PUK deputy secretary general Kosrat
Rasul Ali. Yarweissi said this was his way of beginning to
condition the party to operate independently, without relying
on him for direction. Asked if this was in any way meant to
prop up or appease Kosrat, Yarweissi said no, he was merely
the second most senior official in the delegation. He said
Talabani prefers Saleh to succeed him as PUK leader, though
he will not overtly anoint Saleh as the heir apparent.


11. (C) Yarweissi also contrasted the Kurdish attitude
toward discussion of Talabani's health five or six months ago
when Talabani first fell ill and was evacuated to a clinic in
Jordan, and now. He noted that then it was taboo and
impolite to discuss PUK succession or Talabani's retirement,
but now not only is everyone discussing it, but they feel
comfortable broaching the topic even with Talabani.


12. (C) Comment: It may be easier for Talabani to avoid
rocking the boat (both within his party and in his relations
with the KDP) by allowing Nechirvan to remain PM. At the
same time, he may calculate that such a move could be seen as
weakness to his party members, particularly rivals like
Nushirwan Mustafa, who openly oppose him. Saleh is the
x-factor, but will follow Talabani's direction. It appears
that even the highest levels of both KDP and PUK have yet to
decide. That the PUK and even Talabani are openly talking
about succession and making post-Talabani preparations is
encouraging. It suggests that, assuming he lives long enough
to reach consensus, there will be a plan in place that could
help maintain stability in northern Iraq.
CROCKER