VP ABDEL MEHDI ON SPD, TURKEY, ISTANBUL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003634

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/31/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ
SUBJECT: VP ABDEL MEHDI ON SPD, TURKEY, ISTANBUL
CONFERENCE, ANFAL, AND LEGISLATION

Classified By: Charge d'Affaires a.i. Patricia Butenis for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: Vice President Adel Abdel Mehdi told the
Charge on November 1 that Prime Minister Maliki had yet to
complete his review of a draft Strategic Partnership
Declaration (SPD) and predicted that Maliki's proposed
revisions would not differ significantly from the original
text. On the PKK-Turkey issue, Adel said he heard that the
Turkish hostages had been moved to Irbil, a development that
shows "contact" between the PKK, the Kurdish Regional
Government, and the Kurdish Democratic Party. He opined the
USG must "do something strong" to avert an imminent Turkish
incursion into Iraq. He said GOI President Talabani had told
him Kurdish forces would fight back against any such
incursion, and Adel warned that Kurdish resistance could give
Ankara a pretext to drive deep into Kurdistan. Adel said
Iranian Foreign Minister Mottaki expressed support for Iraq's
position on Turkey during his October 31 visit to Baghdad.
Regarding Maliki's formal request that we hand over Chemical
Ali and other convicted Anfal detainees for execution, Adel
said he agreed with our understanding that a prior
Presidential decree was required and that he would send a
letter on this matter to Maliki. In reply to the CDA's
repeated urging of GOI action to ensure enactment of key
pending legislation, Adel acknowledged the importance of the
draft bills and complained that agreement among Iraqi leaders
has not translated into speedy parliamentary action. End
Summary.


No News on Strategic Partnership Declaration
--------------


2. (C) In reply to the CDA's point that we hoped for a timely
GOI review with minimal substantive revisions of the draft
declaration so as to prepare for a signing ceremony later
this month, Adel said that Prime Minister Maliki was working
on the draft and Adel was unaware of specific revisions.
Noting that the text he and the Embassy had prepared in
August was "not an official paper," he said he believed
Maliki's revisions would not differ greatly from the August
text.

Turkey Tension Likely to Overshadow Istanbul Conference
-------------- --------------


3. (C) The CDA expressed hope that the Istanbul Neighbors
Conference would not focus solely on the PKK-Turkey issue,
noting that the release of Turkish soldiers held hostage by
the PKK is a major issue for Ankara. Adel said he had heard
"unofficially" that the Turkish hostages had been moved to
Irbil: "this is good news and bad news," he said, "good news
because it shows they might be freed but bad news because it
shows contact between the PKK, the Kurdish Regional
Government, and the Kurdish Democratic Party." After the CDA
informed him that we had told Massoud Barzani that the
Turkish Government was under a great deal of internal
pressure to take action in Iraqi Kurdistan, the Vice
President sighed that Barzani made a helpful statement
recently but that it should have been made three months ago:
in the meantime, the PKK exploited the situation and
complicated Turkey's internal political dynamic, thus putting
great pressure on Turkey to act. Adel opined that Turkey was
waiting for a signal from Washington. If the USG wants to
avoid a Turkish military incursion into Iraq, it "must do
something strong." He said the Turkish Ambassador to Iraq
told him Turkish troops would enter Iraq, and Adel speculated
that this will happen unless the Istanbul Conference produced
"real measures." He surmised that Turkish concerns go beyond
the PKK and include "the whole Kurdistan Regional Government
project," noting that the Turkish Ambassador had complained
bitterly about Kurdish violence against Iraq's Turkomen
community. Adel said he found it hard to imagine that Turkey
would let this crisis pass without "doing something" against
the PKK in Iraq.


4. (C) If Turkish forces enter Iraq, Adel prognosticated,
they would likely avoid mountainous areas and concentrate
instead on the region around Makmur and Faider. When asked
how the GOI would respond, he noted GOI President Talabani
told him that Kurdish Peshmerga forces would fight back.
Adel said he warned Talabani that the Kurds might fall into a
Turkish trap by giving Turkey a pretext to drive deeper
inside Kurdistan. Adel said that Iranian Foreign Minister
Mottaki had visited Baghdad October 31 for talks with FM
Zebari, Maliki and others (Adel said he had a lunch meeting
with Mottaki) primarily to discuss the Turkey issue and the
Istanbul Conference. When pressed for a readout, he said
simply that Iran supports the GOI position. In reply to a
CDA question, Adel said the issue of Iranian support to Iraqi
militias was not discussed.

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5. (C) The CDA noted we had expressed concern to the Turks
about their cold treatment of the GOI delegation last week,
and that we urged Turkey to provide a more respectful welcome
to GOI representatives at the upcoming Istanbul Conference.
Adel confirmed that neither Talabani nor Maliki had agreed to
attend the conference and asked for USG advice on who should
attend. After the CDA stated that both had been invited, in
spite of our advice to the contrary, and that Maliki should
attend, Adel said the Iranians want Maliki to attend.
Regarding possible conference deliverables, CDA noted that
the Ambassador was visiting many of the Arab capitals that
Adel had recently visited in order to discuss Iraq issues
with neighboring leaders. Adel mentioned that Egypt will
soon open its Embassy in Baghdad, and that Kuwait was looking
for a suitable building in which to open an embassy.

Anfal Executions
--------------


6. (C) The CDA informed Adel that we had received a formal
request from PM Maliki that "Chemical Ali" and the other two
convicted Anfal detainees be handed over to GOI custody for
execution, adding that this approach was contrary to our
understanding regarding the need for a prior Presidential
Decree on the matter. Adel said he agreed that such a decree
was required and that he was in the process of sending a
letter on this matter to Maliki. Adel observed that an
execution of Anfal defendant Sultan Hashim would be
"politically damaging to Iraq" and that Sultan should be
imprisoned for life instead. He said that he was talking to
GOI lawyers about the proper mechanism to prepare a decree
that would permit the execution of Chemical Ali. The CDA
emphasized that that while we have no position on the
judgment of the Iraqi court, we require GOI consensus before
we hand over the convicted detainees.

Pending Legislation
--------------


7. (C) The CDA pressed for concerted GOI action to ensure
speedy passage of key benchmark legislation. Adel threw up
his hands and blurted that when Iraq's top leaders talk about
such legislation "we have agreement and it all seems so easy,
but then the government and the parliament get involved and
suddenly everybody wants to discuss every detail and it all
becomes so difficult." After the CDA again asked him to push
the process forward, he said the pending legislation was
important not just for the USG but also for Iraq and Maliki:
however, he added, the USG should not lose focus on other
important Iraqi progress such as the recently-enacted
pensions law, the confirmation of "two good people" as
replacement ministers, and an improved security climate.
BUTENIS