IRAQI PRESIDENT CALLS ACTION AGAINST PKK "FUTILE"

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003546

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/25/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ TU
SUBJECT: IRAQI PRESIDENT CALLS ACTION AGAINST PKK "FUTILE"
BUT OFFERS JOINT PATROLS ALONG BORDER

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) & (d)


1. (C) SUMMARY: Iraqi President Jalal Talabani told the
Ambassador in a meeting October 22 that he thought fighting
the PKK was futile and airstrikes against PKK camps would be
ineffective, but thought strikes would cause little backlash
in Baghdad. The Ambassador impressed on Talabani that the
situation had never been more serious and that dialogue alone
may not solve the problem. Talabani claimed that he had
brokered a PKK ceasefire on behalf of Turkish PM Erdogan,
whom the Kurds supported. He also offered to begin joint
patrols of the Turkey-Iraq border should Turkey agree. He
emphasized that he thought the PKK's actions were only
helping the Turkish military, and again called on them to lay
down arms. END SUMMARY.

Fighting is Futile
--------------


2. (S) The Ambassador began by emphasizing the gravity of
the situation, and said something must be done quickly. The
volume and severity of the recent PKK attacks makes it very
likely that Turkey will conduct a Cross Border Operation
(CBO). Statements from the GOI and KRG are appreciated, but
Iraq (including the KRG) should firmly act against the PKK.
Talabani replied that he is personally not intimidated by the
possibility of a CBO - the mountains will beat the Turks and
they will return home defeated and frustrated. Talabani said
that although KRG President Masoud Barzani is easily agitated
by Turkish comments to the media, Barzani had told Talabani
the day before that "the PKK is definitely a terrorist
organization - and a scourge on the Kurdish people."


3. (S) Talabani said the PKK have reduced their demands:
previously, they fought for an independent Marxist Kurdish
state, but now they are only calling for amnesty. He
emphasized that a political solution was the only viable way
to achieve a lasting peace - to fight them is futile since
thousands remain burrowed in the Qandil mountains. Talabani
detailed the extensive casualties suffered by Turkey, the
PUK, and the KDP when trying to defeat them militarily PKK in
the past. Talabani laughed that he fought Saddam Hussein,s
regime from exactly the same area and survived Baghdad,s
repeated offensives because of the extremely rugged terrain -
the same is true now with the PKK.

Air Strikes Ineffective, But No Backlash in Baghdad
-------------- --------------


4. (S) Talabani told the Ambassador he did not believe air
strikes would be effective against the PKK; they are well
camouflaged and live in treacherous terrain including deep
tunnels/ditches and caves. He thought that there would be
little reaction in Baghdad if a limited strike was conducted,
however his brother-in-law, Minister of Water Resources Dr.
Latif Rashid, disagreed. Latif firmly asserted that any
kinetic action against the PKK would likely prompt a nasty
backlash, including immediate suicide and car bombings in
Turkish cities. If KRG involvement was perceived, then Iraqi
Kurdish cities would be attacked too.


5. (S) Contrary to the belief that PKK camps may include
women and children, Talabani and Latif (both seasoned
peshmerga) asserted that no families existed; military-age
PKK are not allowed to marry, do not smoke or drink alcohol,
and live by a strict and severe code of conduct. They are
zealots who live a very austere lifestyle and can survive
throughout the year without supplies by living off the land.
Practically none are ever captured alive by their enemies -
instead they often commit suicide by throwing themselves from
cliffs, they said.

Talabani Meets Erdogan, Brokers Ceasefire
--------------


6. (S) Talabani reported that he met with Turkish PM Erdogan
on the margins of the Clinton Global Initiative conference in
New York in late September. The meeting was very positive,
he said. Talabani repeatedly emphasized that Erdogan is a
leader who is popular with the Kurds (receiving 60% of their
votes),but is being pressured by the hardline Turkish
military. He said Erdogan has appealed to the PKK to come
down from the mountains and discuss their differences with
the Turkish parliament. To support Erdogan and prevent a
full-scale CBO, Talabani said he was prepared to work with
the Turks inside Iraq: if Turkey wants to initiate patrols,
then he would dispatch peshmerga to join them. He said he
would make this offer to Turkish FM Babacan the next day,
during Babacan's visit to Baghdad.


7. (S) Erdogan asked Talabani in New York to leverage his
influence to get a one-year ceasefire from the PKK. Talabani

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dispatched a special envoy, resulting in the PKK ceasefire
announced earlier on October 22. The reaction to the
ceasefire in Ankara was positive, Talabani insisted. He said
the PKK planned to hold a press conference the next day from
one of their mountain hideaways; Turkish military
intelligence was reportedly aware of, and had sanctioned, the
event. Talabani said the PKK has written two letters, one to
Erdogan and one to Turkish Ambassador to Iraq Kanbay stating
that they were ready to lay down their arms if a general
amnesty is granted. Talabani said the ceasefire remained
unconditional (despite media reports to the contrary).


8. (S) Talk of a press conference in the Qandil Mountains
prompted a discussion on the locations of PKK camps and the
possibility of choking off the PKK,s supply lines and means
of funding: Talabani and Latif insisted that the mountainous
terrain meant that supply trails were impossible to block
entirely. They were also at pains to describe the vast
network of funding supporting the PKK. It reportedly
stretches throughout Turkey and the remainder of Europe.
They said every Kurd in Turkey and Europe pays a tax to the
PKK, like the mafia: "if the tax is not paid you will find
your shop or business on fire." They also have relations
with and receive support from Iran, insisted Latif.

PKK should Abandon the Fight
--------------


9. (S) Talabani said those PKK fighting now are only serving
the interests of the Turkish military. The Ambassador called
on him to make that opinion known - that more violence is not
helping. Talabani replied that he had said this in his
statement two days ago. He read parts of his Asharq al-Awsat
interview aloud:

"For some time we have been advising the PKK to abandon armed
action. We have told them we are living in the era of
globalization. Partisan wars are no longer acceptable or
useful. We believe that the PKK should turn to political,
parliamentary, diplomatic, and popular action instead of
armed action. In a speech that I recently gave in
Sulaymaniyah, I openly stated that the Kurds do not believe
that the PKK,s military acts in Turkey or Iran can serve the
Kurdish people,s interests. Indeed they undermine their
interests. We believe that armed action hurts democracy in
Turkey and hurts PM Recep Teyyip Erdogan and the Justice and
Development Party (AKP). This party is a new democratic
feature that wishes to build a new Turkish society that makes
room for Turkey,s Kurds and the other ethnic groups in the
country.

The AKP recognizes the existence of a Kurdish people and a
Kurdish cause. It adopts a friendly attitude towards using
the Kurdish language in the media. Furthermore, the recent
parliamentary elections were free in the Kurdish areas and
led to the election of patriotic Kurdish deputies to
parliament. The AKP won more than 60 percent of the Kurdish
vote, which means that they are happy with it. This means
those carrying out armed actions against this party serve
only chauvinist forces in Turkey.

Regarding the presence of PKK combatants in Iraq, our
constitution clearly forbids the continued presence of
foreign armed forces on Iraqi territory or using such forces
to launch armed attacks on neighboring countries. But what
can we do? We want the party to depart from the Kurdistan
region and return to its own country (...) Iraq does not
approve of the presence of the PKK combatants and their armed
acts. It cannot tolerate them when they go into Turkey and
kill people then return to our territory, thus providing an
excuse for other forces to attack our areas. What we can do
is condemn these acts but we do not have sufficient military
forces to send them to the Qandil mountains to drive them
out. We need our military forces to maintain security in
Baghdad,s streets and to fight terrorism. I wish to state
that we are willing to operate within the tripartite
committee with Turkey and the United States to put an end to
the PKK,s activities in Iraqi Kurdistan and to confine them
to the Qandil mountains. At any rate, we do no want to allow
them to benefit from the current situation."

Activating the 3 1
--------------


10. (C) Talabani and the Ambassador also discussed steps
Talabani could take to reinvigorate the 3 1 (presidency
prime minister) mechanism. Talabani said he would see Vice
President Hashimi the next day and persuade him that he
needed to cooperate. Talabani also would meet separately
with the Prime Minister and raise the 3 1 as well as
cooperation with Hashimi/national reconciliation. He told
the Ambassador that he and President Bush had agreed to work

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on Hashimi and Maliki together.


11. (S) Comment/Bio Note: Talabani, Latif, and advisor
Fakhri Karim spoke long and hard about the futility of
confronting the PKK militarily. Talabani's offer of joint
patrols with Turkey, while it likely does not go far enough,
suggests he received the message that dialogue was no longer
going to suffice. Whether he acts on that message or is able
to convince the more hard-line Barzani family to act is yet
to be seen. If Talabani and Latif are right about the
absence of families in PKK camps, it could make air strikes
more palatable to the Kurdish public, many of whom still
regard the PKK as freedom fighters targeting an oppressive
Turkish regime. Talabani was in a jovial, talkative mood and
appeared no worse for wear following his trip to the Mayo
Clinic. Though still on a diet consisting largely of a
generous bowl of what can only be described as mush, he
allowed himself several pieces of kabob during dinner.
Talabani also told us that Kurdistan Regional Government Vice
President Kosrat Rasul would return to the Mayo Clinic on
October 23 for a checkup following his successful surgery to
install a pacemaker two weeks earlier.
CROCKER