ELECTIONS COMMISSION PART 1: ANTICIPATED 2008

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 003442 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/15/2017 TAGS: PGOV KDEM IZ SUBJECT: ELECTIONS COMMISSION PART 1: ANTICIPATED 2008 ELECTORAL EVENTS Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4(b) and (d). -------------- Summary -------------- ¶1. (SBU) Summary: Although discussion has focused on the need for new provincial elections, in fact the Independent High Electoral Commission (IHEC) is facing as many as five distinct electoral events in 2008: a voter registration exercise, an Article 140 referendum, a constitutional referendum, regions formation referenda, and provincial elections. Three events -- the Article 140 referendum, the constitutional referendum, and provincial elections -- require prerequisite action by the Council of Representatives (CoR) and as a result their timing is uncertain. The other two events, the voter registration exercise and regions formation referenda, can be predicted with more confidence. In anticipation of some, if not all, of these electoral events, the Government of Iraq is forming an Elections Security Committee, which will plan security and coordinate with Multi National Force - Iraq (MNF-I). End Summary. ¶2. (C) This cable draws on multiple conversations with the IHEC board of commissioners, the United Nations Assistance Mission for Iraq (UNAMI) led International Electoral Advisory Team (IEAT),UNAMI Chief Electoral Officer Sandra Mitchell, and IFES, a USAID funded non-governmental organization that provides capacity building support to the IHEC. -------------- Voter Registration -------------- ¶3. (SBU) The first anticipated electoral event is a three-week nationwide voter registration exercise scheduled for the school break in January 2008. This will be the culmination of the conversion of the Minister of Trade's Public Distribution System (PDS) database into an IHEC-controlled and certified voter registry. Once the voter registry is completed, it remains valid "on the shelf" for approximately six months, after which another field update is required. Due to technical limitations of the underlying PDS database, this voter registry will be valid for a provincial election, a province wide referendum, or a national referendum, but would not be valid for a district or sub-district election. (Note: The technical obstacle has to do with the database address fields. The International Electoral Assistance Team has stated that it would take up to twelve months to build from scratch a voter registry database that could be used for district or sub-district elections. End Note.) The voter registration exercise and completion of the voter registry is a necessary prerequisite before any of the other four potential electoral events can take place. -------------- Article 140 Referendum -------------- ¶4. (C) The second possible 2008 electoral event is the Article 140 referendum on the status of Kirkuk and disputed territories. UNAMI Chief Electoral Officer Sandra Mitchell explained that this requires that the CoR pass Article 140 referendum-implementing legislation that defines voter eligibility, the question on the ballot, and provides for a budget. If the implementing legislation provides for voter eligibility that is different than "any Iraqi over 18 years of age," then the existing voter registry would not be applicable. The IHEC would have to create a modified referendum-specific voter registry using the voter eligibility criteria provided in the implementing legislation, which would culminate in another voter registration field exercise. It could take up to three months to create such a specialized voter registry; once it is created, a referendum could be scheduled within one month. For example, if Article 140 implementing legislation is passed in December 2007, a referendum could be scheduled four months later, as early as April 2008. Any delays in passing the implementing legislation will cause a corresponding delay in the date for the Article 140 referendum. (Note: Some members of the Article 140 high committee argue that a voter registry could be developed differently and that implementing legislation is not required to hold the referendum. Committee Chair Raid Fahmi (Iraqqiya, Minister of Science and Technology) told us the committee formally sent a letter asking the CoR whether the legislation would be necessary. Pressed on whether it was a question the CoR could answer, Fahmi said it may need to go to the Supreme Court for response. However, Mitchell warned that if political parties materially interfered with the IHEC's creation of the voter registry, the UN would not certify the referendum as valid. End Note.) BAGHDAD 00003442 002 OF 003 -------------- Constitutional Referendum -------------- ¶5. (SBU) The third potential event is a constitutional referendum. Article 142 of the Constitution requires a nationwide referendum to occur within two months of the CoR's approval of the Constitutional Review Committee's (CRC) final report. The CRC's current deadline for submitting the report to the CoR is December 31, 2007, which is the end of the current legislative term. Although it is possible that the CoR will extend the CRC's deadline, as it did twice before on June 23 and September 8, the IHEC must prepare for the possibility that the CoR will accept and approve the report when it returns from its winter recess in March 2008. This implies that a constitutional referendum could take place in May 2008. -------------- Provincial Elections -------------- ¶6. (C) The fourth anticipated event is provincial elections. To conduct provincial elections, the IHEC requires that the CoR pass an elections law, or at least amend the old one last used in 2005, which has some obsolete provisions. Once a valid voter registry exists, the IHEC can schedule elections four months after the passage of an elections law. Should the CoR pass an elections law in December, before its winter recess, then the IHEC could conduct provincial elections in April 2008. (Note: Post does not have any information to suggest that the CoR will successfully pass the elections law in December. End Note.) Should the elections law be passed after the CoR's return from its winter recess, in March 2008, then provincial elections could occur in July 2008. If there is any further delay in the passage of the elections law beyond March 2008, then the IHEC would have to conduct a voter registry update exercise in July 2008 before elections could be held in the third or fourth quarter of 2008. (Note: The existing provincial councils enjoy an indefinite electoral term; no current law requires provincial elections by January 2009. End Note.) -------------- Regions Formation Referenda -------------- ¶7. (SBU) The fifth possible electoral event in 2008 results from activation of the Law of the Executive Procedures Regarding the Formation of Regions (the Regions Formation Law). This law, although passed on October 11, 2006, contained a hibernation provision: article 22 states that "this law would be implemented 18 months after being passed." On April 11, 2008 it will go into effect. The law defines two methods for initiating the formation of regions. The first involves action by "provincial councils, formed according to the Constitution." Since existing provincial councils do not meet this requirement, this method will remain dormant until fresh provincial elections are scheduled. However, the second method can be used. This requires a direct petition of ten percent of the voters in a province to be presented to the Council of Ministers. A referendum must be held approximately two months after a valid petition is presented to the Council of Ministers. The referendum is successful if it is approved by a majority of the voters and there is a voter turnout of at least 50 percent. Although Post has not heard of any grassroots movement towards forming regions, the IHEC must nonetheless prepare for the possibility that regions formation referenda could begin to occur in June 2008. -------------- Elections Security Committee -------------- ¶8. (SBU) At the request of the IHEC, the Prime Minister's Office agreed in late September 2007 to set up an Elections Security Committee, whose purpose will be to coordinate and implement security during an electoral event. The intent is to build on the successful experience of the 2005 Elections Security Committee. The eight members of the committee include: (1) General Ayden Qadir, Deputy Minister of the Interior, (2) General Hisham Dawud Aziz, Ministry of Defense, (3) Colonel Ali Hassen Ali, Ministry of Defense, (4) Hussein Al-Asadi, Director, National Operations Center, National Security Council, (5) Dr. Ahmed Mohsen Zubaidi, National Security Council, (6) Mr. Mukaram Shaker, Head of Field Security, IHEC, (7) Ms. Gypsy McLean, International Electoral Advisory Team, (8) Squadron Leader Lewis Frederickson (AUS), Strategic Effects - Political, MNF-I. BAGHDAD 00003442 003 OF 003 -------------- Additional Prerequisites -------------- ¶9. (SBU) Before the IHEC can conduct any of the 2008 electoral events, including the scheduled January voter registration exercise, the CoR must complete two critical prerequisites. First, the CoR must complete the nomination of provincial Chief Electoral Officers. This process has been deadlocked in the CoR since May 2007 (septel). Second, the CoR must provide a budget for each electoral event, since the IHEC's continuing operations budget does not allow for the surge in field staffing necessary to conduct an election or referendum. The IHEC notified the Prime Minister of these prerequisites in a July 16 report and reminded the CoR of its obligations in a letter dated September 2, 2007. CROCKER