CODEL BOYD'S OCT 7 MEETING WITH PM MALIKI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003377

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/08/2017
TAGS: PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: CODEL BOYD'S OCT 7 MEETING WITH PM MALIKI


Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary: In an Oct. 7 meeting with Codel Boyd, Prime
Minister (PM) Maliki said that while the picture in Iraq was
"not entirely rosey," discernible political and security
progress has nevertheless been made. He credited his
government with having pulled the country back from the edge
of the abyss of civil war. Rep. Wicker told the PM that
there was still an urgent need for further progress, and
asked whether -- in the absence of a legislative solution on
hydrocarbons -- PM Maliki could use his executive authority
to achieve a temporary fix. Maliki claimed that the GOI was
prepared to accept foreign investment into the oil sector
even without legislative progress. In response to a question
from Rep. Cohen, Maliki called for more rapid progress on
training and equipping Iraqi security forces, and rejected
the notion that Iranian forces might someday supplant MNF-I
in Iraq. End summary.


2. (C) Codel Boyd (Rep. Allen Boyd, D-FL; Rep. Roger Wicker,
R-MS; Rep. Wayne Gilchrest, R-MD; Rep. Betty Sutton, D-OH;
and Rep. Stephen Cohen, D-TN) met Oct. 7 with PM Maliki at
his residence. Maliki asked the members of the Codel about
their visit to Doura earlier in the day, noting that the
on-going security challenges in Doura and Saydiyah. The
picture was "not entirely rosey," Maliki conceded.
Nevertheless, the PM said that there was "definitely"
security progress in Baghdad as a result of operation Fardh
al-Qanoon. Maliki credited his government with having pulled
the country back from the brink of civil war, recalling that
last year more than 100 bodies a day were being recovered
from Baghdad's streets. Non-combatants from all camps --
men, women and children -- were being killed simply on the
basis of their ethno-sectarian identity. Maliki stressed
that the situation today is far different: the number of
ethno-sectarian murders committed in Baghdad each day can be
counted on one hand. The key now is for the GOI to sustain
the progress that has been made, and to enact legislation
that will help solidify the foundations of Iraq's fledgling
democracy. "We're now in a situation that allows us to think
strategically," said Maliki.

Questions on the Oil Law
--------------


3. (C) Rep. Wicker reminded Maliki that there was still an
urgent need for additional progress, underscoring that
Congress expects to see concrete legislation emanating from
the GOI and the Council of Representatives. "We need you to
do everything you can, so we can make the case to the
American people that progress is being made," said Rep.
Wicker. He then asked Maliki whether, in the absence of a
hydrocarbons law, the PM could modify the existing system
through executive decree, even if the resultant solution were
only temporary. Maliki said that he had already issued
instructions to accomplish much of what the draft legislation
on oil revenues was intended to accomplish (i.e., an
equitable division of the nation's oil wealth on the basis of
each province's percentage of the overall population). In
that regard, he noted that the Kurds are already receiving 17
percent of oil revenues based on an internal agreement that
he described as "an old issue." Maliki pointed out that,
consequently, passage of the oil revenues law will have
relatively little practical effect on revenue distribution.
Maliki also claimed that the GOI was fully prepared to begin
receiving foreign investment in the petroleum sector, even
prior to the adoption of new legislation creating the
framework for such investment. He noted that one obstacle to
passage of the hydrocarbons law was that certain parties
(i.e., the Kurds) were linking that law to constitutional
amendments.

Future of Coalition Forces/Origins of AQI
--------------


4. (C) Rep. Cohen asked Maliki about comments attributed to
him to the effect that, if Coalition Forces were to suddenly
depart Iraq, that Iraq could fend for itself and would, if
necessary, turn to "other friends" such as Iran. Maliki,
feigning shock, asked Rep. Cohen where he had read such
things. "The New York Times," responded Rep. Cohen. "Then I
should sue the New York Times," declared Maliki, who urged
the Congressman to turn to the Wall Street Journal or the
Washington Post for coverage of Iraq in the future. Turning
serious, Maliki stressed that "no one will replace MNF-I
except for Iraqi forces" and added that he would not even let
a UN-force, much less the Iranians, into Iraq.


5. (C) Turning (in response to another question from Rep.
Cohen) to the origins of AQI, Maliki observed that Al-Qaeda's
presence in Iraq pre-dated Operation Iraqi Freedom and the
collapse of the former regime. "By the time that the (new)
Iraqi state began to emerge and stabilize itself, AQI was

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already well-established here," Maliki lamented. The good
news, in his opinion, was that AQI had lost considerable
ground over the past year due to the Anbar awakening and
improvements in the ISF. As a result, AQI's dreams of
establishing an Islamic state were no longer realistic.
"Al-Qaeda is on the run, and they have no fixed
headquarters," said Maliki, who added that public opinion had
turned not only against AQI but against militias as well.

T&E/Iran/Message to Congress
--------------


6. (C) The Iraqi leader said that it was imperative to
quicken the pace of training and equipping the Iraqi security
forces. In one area, he said, the government had 15,000
policemen on the payroll but only 3,000 rifles with which to
arm them. "The training and equipping provided thus far (by
the Coalition) has been good, but we need more," said Maliki,
who noted that the GOI had recently purchased some weapons
from China and the Ukraine to speed deliveries. Getting the
right equipment into the hands of the ISF would allow the
Iraqis to maintain recent security gains once the "surge"
forces have been redeployed.


7. (C) Asked by Rep. Gilchrest for thoughts about how to
pursue U.S.-Iranian dialogue, Maliki expressed strong support
for the two rounds of talks earlier this year between the
Ambassador and his Iranian counterpart. "War with Iran would
be catastrophic," Maliki cautioned. Asked by Rep. Sutton
what message Maliki would like to send to Congress, the Iraqi
PM said he would remind the Congress that the U.S. has
accomplished a lot in Iraq. "You've toppled an evil
dictatorship and established a democracy. We hope that
you'll protect democracy in Iraq. If the Iraqi model
succeeds, the whole region will move towards democracy.
Please express my thanks and appreciation to Congress,"
Maliki said.


8. (U) Codel Boyd did not have an opportunity to clear this
cable.





CROCKER