MALIKI OPTIMISTIC ON SECURITY; DISCUSSES IRAQI

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003372 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/07/2017 TAGS: MARR MOPS MCAP PGOV PTER PINS PNAT IZ SUBJECT: MALIKI OPTIMISTIC ON SECURITY; DISCUSSES IRAQI REFUGEE RETURN, SYRIAN VISAS, AND PROVINCIAL POLICE MANNING REF: BAGHDAD 3314 Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (S) SUMMARY: During a weekly security meeting with the Ambassador and MNF-I Commanding General David Petraeus, Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki described himself as optimistic on security because of a decrease in sectarianism and increase in confidence by Iraqis in their own security forces. This climate would allow him to begin two projects: organizing a committee to monitor displaced persons and encouraging refugees to return to Iraq with a publicity campaign. When asked about press reports that GOI had encouraged Syria to reinstate visas for Iraqi refugees, he denied it saying that Syria had been unresponsive to the issue. Maliki also discussed specifics about police manning in Anbar and Mosul provinces, proposing an increase in Anbar with a brigade-sized unit and encouraging Arabs to re-join the Mosul police units. END SUMMARY. -------------- Maliki Optimistic on Security -------------- ¶2. (S) At his weekly security meeting on October 4 with the Ambassador and MNF-I Commanding General Petraeus, Prime Minister Maliki maintained a generally optimistic demeanor although he described the recent improvised explosive device (IED) attack against the Polish Ambassador as a "tragic shock." Partly because of this, Maliki vowed to "dine outside tonight in a public Baghdad restaurant" because he remained confident in the improving security situation. (Note: His own personal security detail (PSD) later cancelled this dinner. End note.) PM Maliki also expressed his belief that in spite of some terrible incidents, religious sectarianism was dead. Even if it were replaced by political factionalism, as he expected, he considered this a positive development. He said gangs and militias were on the run and clearly afraid of the Coalition and Iraqi Security Forces (ISF); this made Baghdad a safer place. As proof, he pointed to the large number of Baghdad citizens who were now safely returning to the streets and neighborhood markets. -------------- Maliki Wants Iraqi Refugees to Return -------------- ¶3. (S) The Prime Minister said he wanted to take advantage of the improved security climate to move ahead with two projects: developing a ministerial-level committee on displaced citizens and encouraging the return of Iraqi refugees with a publicity campaign. This committee, he said, was the same one approved at the last Ministerial Council on National Security which would closely coordinate all GOI resettlement efforts (Reftel). A significant obstacle standing in the way of the refugees return, he added, was their concern about safely traveling in Iraq. In this regard, PM Maliki asked General Petraeus for MNF-I assistance in securing transit routes. ¶4. (S) General Petraeus answered that Coalition Forces (CF) would support the government and ISF in the conduct of transit route security, but reminded him that MNF-I did not have expertise on Iraqi resettlement issues, especially in moving families back into their neighborhoods that have since been resettled by others. General Petraeus reiterated that these very complicated matters required comprehensive and sensitive solutions, planned and conducted by the Iraqi government and not the MNF-I. -------------- Syrian Visas -------------- ¶5. (S) Turning to reports that Syria had just re-instituted visa requirements for Iraqi citizens, the Ambassador expressed concern that Syria attributed this change in policy to an Iraqi government request. PM Maliki dismissed this Syrian allegation with a sharp grimace and wave of the hand. He said that during negotiations on these issues with Syria,s president, Bashar Assad, he had personally offered considerable concessions on oil and trade but did not get a positive response. He added coolly that he did not know what Syria wanted out of these negotiations. -------------- Police Salaries/Manning in Anbar and Mosul -------------- BAGHDAD 00003372 002 OF 002 ¶6. (S) PM Maliki said he had received complaints from Sheik Ahmed abu Risha (note: brother of the late Sheik Sattar and his successor as leader of the Anbar Awakening) about nepotism in police hiring in Anbar province by the Iraqi Islamic Party (IIP) as well as reports that the Anbar governor was not disbursing salaries for over 5000 police personnel. According to Maliki, the Ministry of Interior had transferred the funds but there was a large discrepancy in payroll accounting. General Petraeus answered that the apparent discrepancies likely stemmed from ongoing changes to the authorized manning levels of these police units. He said it was absolutely vital to clarify the number of authorized police positions. This led to a lengthy discussion between General Petraeus and PM Maliki about specific manpower authorizations. The Prime Minister said the total number was about 25,000 plus a new police brigade (Abu Risha Brigade). But when General Petraeus added up his own numbers, the total came to 27,000. PM Maliki agreed to dispatch a government committee in order to closely scrutinize these manpower numbers and payroll issues. General Petraeus agreed to send an MNF-I pay team to Ramadi to assist in the accounting. ¶7. (S) PM Maliki expressed serious concerns about a growing "ethnic problem" in Mosul between the Kurds and Sunnis. He said that Vice President Hashimi claimed Kurdish militants are inciting violence in Mosul and had described the Second Iraqi Army Division as the "Kurdish Division." General Petraeus commented that the current ethnic composition of the Second division was primarily the fault of Sunnis who either quit their military service or boycotted recruitment efforts. He said the same thing occurred in the Provincial Council; the Sunnis left the council of their own volition but now they were complaining. PM Maliki acknowledged these problems, but added that the situation was getting worse. He proposed convening a special session between him, the Ambassador, and General Petraeus to discuss the way ahead in Mosul; they agreed. ¶8. (S) General Petraeus told the Prime Minister that Al Qaim port of entry (POE) would reopen on November 15. Maliki replied that it is important that the POE be controlled and supervised so that "it does not turn into another Rabiyah" in terms of corruption. ¶9. (S) Maliki concluded the meeting with an optimistic assessment of the future. He emphasized that victory starts psychologically and he senses the Iraqi people are now feeling significantly better about the overall security situation. CROCKER