AYAD ALLAWI RETURNS TO BAGHDAD, UNCERTAIN FOR HOW

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003249 SIPDIS NOFORN SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/25/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL IZ SUBJECT: AYAD ALLAWI RETURNS TO BAGHDAD, UNCERTAIN FOR HOW LONG REF: A. BAGHDAD O-I 9/20/07 B. BAGHDAD 3097 C. BAGHDAD 3227 Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (S/NF) Summary: Ayad Allawi, joined by CoR and Iraqiyya member Adnan Pachachi and his cousin Muhammad Tawif Allawi (the "resigned" Minister of Communications),told PolCouns and PolOffs on September 25 he is working to build a non-sectarian, moderate coalition among many parties, to include all sects (Sunnis, Shia, and Kurds). Pachachi, hinted a change of leadership is in the air, referencing the dwindling number of ministers remaining in PM Maliki's cabinet. However, Allawi did not openly hint at a future role for himself in the GOI, perhaps due to recent threats against him as a result of his meetings with former Ba'athists in Jordan (ref A). Allawi highlighted national reconciliation and improving the security situation as the two key issues to Iraq's stability. He also cited the negative influence of militias and Iran's interference in Iraq's affairs. He envisions a smaller "kitchen" cabinet as being more efficient than the current slate of ministers, and highlighted his recent meetings in the UAE and Syria to bring about stability in the region. Regarding the de-ba'athification law, Allawi called for an independent de-ba'athification commission, not one based on sectarian retribution. End summary. HINT OF CHANGE OF LEADERSHIP IN THE AIR -------------- ¶2. (S/NF) Former Prime Minister Ayad Allawi said he is building a non-sectarian, independent coalition of support, and has called upon Tawafuq, Hiwar, Fadila, the Kurds, and even the Sadrists to be part of this effort. Adnan Pachachi jumped in and said that PM Maliki only has 21 ministers remaining in his cabinet (down from 37),hinting that a change of leadership might be around the corner. He added: "we may find better alternatives if we look elsewhere." PolCouns noted that most Iraqi leaders seem to have concluded that there is no consensus on an alternative to Maliki, and observed that disruptions that might delay further progress on political reconciliation would not be helpful. NATIONAL RECONCILIATION AND SECURITY -------------- ¶3. (S/NF) Allawi said "national reconciliation and improving the security situation are the two most important issues the GOI needs to take the lead on right now." He noted the encouraging improvements in security in Anbar and Diyala, referencing a meeting he had with Sheikh Sattar Abu Rishawi before his assassination on September 13 (ref B). He believes there needs to be a new approach to national reconciliation, and agreement on the de-ba'athifcation law is one step towards this effort. He said Iraq needs to get rid of militias both inside and outside the GOI, noting the negative influence of Jaysh al-Mahdi (JAM) in filling the security vacuum in some regions. Allawi added he recently met with (UIA leader) Ammar Hakim and (IIP leader) VP Hashimi, asking for their help to reduce sectarianism. He sees Iran's interference and religious extremism as detrimental to Iraq. Throughout the meeting, he reiterated the need to work with the U.S. to build stability in the region. ¶4. (S/NF) Allawi highlighted the need for "competent" ministers who are brought in to the GOI based on their experience, rather than loyalties. He said, "the current model is not working" and "we are without a clear policy of where we want to be." He added, "we need to lay down this policy." He hopes the GOI will implement the goals highlighted in the leadership agreement, which envisions a smaller overall cabinet. Pachachi suggested a National Security Cabinet, to include the Ministers of Defense, Interior, Finance, and Foreign Affairs be formed to make key decisions in the government. ALLAWI'S INFLUENCE ON IRAQ'S NEIGHBORS -------------- ¶5. (S/NF) Allawi said he traveled to Syria and the UAE within the last seven days, where he met with, respectively, Syrian President Bashar al-Asad and UAE Emir/President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed al-Nahyan to discuss the current challenges and opportunities for improvement in Iraq. Allawi encouraged the USG to reach out as much as possible to Iraq's neighbors (e.g., Jordan and Saudi Arabia) to build support for stability in Iraq. He said he conveyed the same message to Arab leaders in the region. (Note: In a recent meeting with BAGHDAD 00003249 002 OF 002 an independent CoR member, it is noteworthy Allawi's strong support from Iraq's neighbors (except Iran) was mentioned as one of his key strengths (ref C). End note). DE-BA'ATHIFICATION -------------- ¶6. (S/NF) When PolCouns highlighted progress on resolving differences in the de-ba'athification law during the leadership meetings, Allawi responded he hadn't seen the new version, but had talked with President Talabani about the revised law the night before. Allawi said he wanted to ensure an independent body -- not the current de-ba'athification commission -- would have the right to review the commission's decisions to ensure there is no sectarian retribution. He mentioned he fought the Ba'ath party for over 30 years, but has put these feelings aside and believes Iraq needs to be careful to punish only criminals. CROCKER