VIEW ON SHIFTING ALLIANCES AND OTHER ISSUES FROM

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003227 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/19/2017 TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR IZ SUBJECT: VIEW ON SHIFTING ALLIANCES AND OTHER ISSUES FROM AN INDEPENDENT COR MEMBER REF: BAGHDAD 3155 Classified By: Political Counselor Matt Tueller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d) ¶1. (C) Summary: Council of Representatives (CoR) member Yonadam Kanna (Rafidayn) told PolOff on September 18 that former PM Allawi is the best candidate to succeed PM Maliki should a no confidence vote occur. He mentioned Dr. Mehdi Hafedh, an independent CoR member (once aligned with Iraqiyya),and VP Adil Abd al-Mahdi as other potential candidates. Kanna does not think the GOI is serious about national reconciliation and highlighted the problem of obtaining the "right" version of the de-ba'athification law as an example of continuing disagreements. He views the influence of ideology and religion in Iraq, the Kurds' attempt to annex more land, and Iran and Syria's interference in the country as obstacles to stabilization. End summary. ALLAWI BEST CHOICE TO SUCCEED MALIKI -------------- ¶2. (C) CoR member and Deputy Chair of the Economic, Investment and Reconstruction Committee Yonadam Kanna told PolOff that over fifty percent of the CoR members think Iraq is moving in the wrong direction. He said "former Prime Minister Allawi would be the best candidate" to succeed Maliki should a no confidence vote occur in the CoR, adding that Allawi would enjoy the support of other neighboring countries (except Iran). As the next best candidate, he mentioned Dr. Mehdi Hafedh (Shi'a/Independent - former Iraqiyya),calling him an "excellent choice" for PM given his strong pro-market economic views. He also raised VP Adil Abd al-Mahdi's name as a possible contender, but mentioned Mahdi may have problems gaining the complete support of his own party. ¶3. (C) He called the August agreement by the five political leaders a "big mistake," saying that despite the agreement, none of the parties in the "group of four" trusted one another. He hinted that the Sadrists might align with former PM Ayad Allawi and suggested that Da'wa Tanzim might be shifting its loyalties away from Maliki. NATIONAL RECONCILIATION, DE-BA'ATH -------------- ¶4. (C) Kanna said he thinks the government is not "serious" about national reconciliation. He called the National Reconciliation Commission in the Prime Minister's Office "useless." He also said activity in the committee for national reconciliation in the CoR is now frozen, despite the fact the committee just started up several months ago. He stated there were four conferences on national reconciliation during the past year that yielded no clear results. Kanna pointed to the multiple versions of the da-ba'athification law floating around as evidence of continuing disagreement among the various factions. OBSTACLES IN IRAQ -------------- ¶5. (C) Kanna mentioned three obstacles to stability in Iraq. First, he highlighted the push for a religious state and the influence of ideology in political parties and the government as critical impediments. He emphasized the need for non-sectarian moderates as the key to success for Iraq's future. He also criticized the Kurds for trying to illegally annex more lands, referring to the dispute over lands in Kirkuk and Ninewa. Kanna stressed the interference of Iraq's neighbors in Iraqi internal matters, specifically referencing Syria and Iran. OTHER DRAFT LAWS -------------- ¶6. (C) Regarding the "Organization of Justice and National Balance" draft law that received a second reading on September 8, Kanna said there is opposition to this law and does not think it will pass. (Note: This law would require an equal balance of Shi'a, Kurds, and Sunnis in each ministry. This law has been referred back to the Committee on Civil Society Organizations for more discussion and is also opposed by Iraqiyya members (reftel). End note). BIO NOTE -------------- ¶7. (C) Yonadam Kanna represents the Ninewa province in the CoR as an Assyrian Christian and a member of the Assyrian Democratic Movement. He was born in Anbar in 1951, studied at the University of Suleymaniah and now resides in Baghdad. BAGHDAD 00003227 002 OF 002 He is the sole CoR member from the Rafidayn party and the Deputy Chair of the Economic, Investment, and Reconstruction Committee. He is a civil engineer by background. He fled the country in 1984, when he was sentenced to death in absentia by Saddam's government. He then spent some time abroad, but returned and was part of the 1991 uprising in Kirkuk/Irbil. He lived for nearly ten years in Irbil (1992-2001),where he served in the KRG as the Minister of Public Works, Minister of Industry and Minerals, and Minister of Energy. He was a member of both the Iraqi Governing Council and the Transitional National Assembly (TNA). He speaks good English and is supportive of USG economic and political goals. CROCKER