Identifier | Created | Classification | Origin |
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07BAGHDAD3196 | 2007-09-23 13:50:00 | SECRET//NOFORN | Embassy Baghdad |
VZCZCXRO5299 RR RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHIHL RUEHKUK DE RUEHGB #3196/01 2661350 ZNY SSSSS ZZH R 231350Z SEP 07 FM AMEMBASSY BAGHDAD TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 3518 INFO RUCNRAQ/IRAQ COLLECTIVE |
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 003196 |
1. (S/NF) Summary: During a Sept. 20 meeting, Council of Representatives (CoR) member Dr. Mehdi Hafedh (Shi'a/Independent) said it was time for the USG to "initiate" the replacement of PM Maliki. Poloffs pushed back, leaving no doubt that the USG supports Maliki as the head of Iraq's constitutional government and stressing that whether to replace the PM through the Iraqi democratic process was a question for Iraqis to answer themselves. Dr. Mehdi said this approach was admirable in principle but counterproductive in practice. He unabashedly proclaimed himself the candidate most likely to replace Maliki in the event of a no confidence vote in the CoR, and said he is building support with Hiwar, Tawafuq, and various independents. He claimed to be a member of an emerging bloc of independents that might contain as many as 20 CoR members (and hinted that he was likely to become the bloc's leader). He said his priorities include the appointment of non-sectarian ministers, passing an oil law and improving efficiency in GOI budget execution. End summary. PM WILL NOT SURVIVE, DR. MEHDI A POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR -------------------------- -------------------------- 2. (S/NF) Dr. Mehdi told DepPolCouns and PolOff on Sept. 20 that he does not think PM Maliki will "easily survive in his position," noting the dissatisfaction with Maliki's rule had spread into Da'wa itself. He said he has been approached by Tawafuq, independents, and others to succeed PM Maliki should a no-confidence vote occur in the CoR. He stated "I have a good chance and am the most favorable (sic) candidate." He argued that the USG should initiate the process of replacing Maliki. Poloffs pushed back, leaving no doubt that the USG supports Maliki as the head of Iraq's constitutional government and emphasizing that whether to replace Maliki through Iraq's democratic process is a question for Iraqis to decide. Mehdi conceded that the USG approach was correct in principle, although he insisted that in practice it was damaging U.S. and Iraqi interests. Turning to the shifting political alliances within the CoR, Mehdi predicted that some former Iraqiyya members who recently broke with the party (a possible reference to Safia Taleb Souhail, Izzat Shahbandar and Hachim al-Hassani, who reportedly withdrew from Iraqiyya this week in response to Ayad Allawi's meetings with Ba'ath party members in Jordan) would join him in forming an independent, non-sectarian bloc with approximately 20 members. Mehdi hinted that he would emerge as the bloc's leader. 3. (S/NF) Citing a recent meeting he held with Sunni VP al-Hashimi, Mehdi intimated that al-Hashimi and Tawafuq would likely support him as an alternative to Maliki. He also claimed to have support from some Shi'a elements in the CoR as well. (Note: In two separate meetings with Hiwar leader Salah Mutlaq and another independent CoR member, Dr. Mehdi Hafedh's name was raised as a strong contender to replace PM Maliki if the CoR votes no confidence (septel). End note) Mehdi said the prospects for a vote of no confidence in PM Maliki changes by the moment. In his view, Tawafuq wishes to avoid the appearance of allying with the Sadrists and would, therefore, let the Sadrists initiate a vote of no-confidence, which Tawafuq would wait until the last moment to support. DR. MEHDI'S PRIORITIES -------------------------- 4. (S/NF) As to his priorities for reforming the GOI, Dr. Mehdi said first that "we need competent ministers." Second, increased oil production is imperative both for economic growth and so that Iraq can fulfill its requirements under the Stand-By Arrangement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Third, he criticized the GOI for poor budget execution, which has reduced the Cabinet's effectiveness. Fourth, he noted the need to resolve the impasse on the hydrocarbons law, and said that the KRG's intent to create a "fait accompli" by passing its own oil law recently (August) was unacceptable. COR LAGGING BEHIND -------------------------- 5. (S/NF) Dr. Mehdi said the CoR is lagging behind in its tasks and responsibilities. He cited bad management and sectarianism as the main impediments to the CoR's effectiveness. He said that the committees "are not doing their jobs" and this needs to be dealt with soon by Speaker Mahmoud Mashadani. He added there are daily shifts regarding BAGHDAD 00003196 002 OF 002 the composition of the political blocs in the CoR. 6. (S/NF) On a positive note, Dr. Mehdi said Speaker Mashadani initiated dialogue and was part of the meeting of CoR leadership which met on September 9 to discuss the crisis in the government and prepare a list of priorities to raise with PM Maliki. He added there would be a meeting at noon on September 20 between CoR members and the Presidency Council, Prime Minister, and ministers, to discuss that list. (Note: Our understanding is that neither the PM nor the Presidency Council attended that meeting. End note). BIO NOTE -------------------------- 7. (S/NF) Dr. Mehdi Hafedh (Shi'a) is a CoR member who withdrew from the Iraqiyya bloc during the past year and is now an independent. He was Minister of Planning and Development in the Iraqi Interim Government (IIG) and was Chair of the Iraq Strategic Review Board (ISRB) and the Council for International Coordination. He is the author of many books on Arab affairs and economic and social issues. He comes from the town of Al-Shamiyah in Al-Qadisiyah province. He is a graduate in chemistry and pursued his studies in social science and obtained a Doctorate of State degree in Economic Science from the University of Prague. Dr. Hafedh developed his expertise in the Iraqi Ministry of Oil before representing Iraq as Minister (1978-1980) Plenipotentiary at the United Nations in Geneva. He later joined the UN System in Trade and Development where he was Director for Special Industrial Development from 1983-1996, and then served as a Regional Director for Industrial Development until 1999. He later served as Advisor to the Director General for Industrial Development in Vienna. In addition, Dr. Hafedh has played an active role in supporting positive change in governance in the Arab World, as member of the Board of Trustees at the Arab Thought Forum since 1996, as President of the Arab Society for Economic Research between 1998 and 2003, and as a founding member of the Arab Organization for Human Rights in 1983. CROCKER |