IRAQI PM MALIKI TELLS CODEL PELOSI 50,000 U.S.

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 BAGHDAD 000318

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/29/2017
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ
SUBJECT: IRAQI PM MALIKI TELLS CODEL PELOSI 50,000 U.S.
TROOPS COULD BE OUT IN THREE TO SIX MONTHS, IRAQ SEEKS LEAD
ON SECURITY

Classified By: Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (S) Summary: During a January 26 meeting with a
Congressional delegation led by House Speaker Nancy Pelosi,
Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki stated that 50,000-60,000 U.S.
troops could withdraw in three to six months as Iraqi forces
improved in capacity. He urged greater U.S. support for
training and military equipment, although Rep. Pelosi and
others said they would not support plans Maliki raised for an
additional USD 5.4 billion in U.S. assistance to build up
Iraqi forces. Delegation members expressed concern about
increased violence, slow reconstruction efforts, and
corruption. They also pressed PM Maliki for timeline of when
additional U.S. troops could leave and reported a lack of
support for the war in Congress and by the American people.
Maliki emphasized that Iraqis appreciated the role the U.S.
played in liberating their country. He pointed to progress in
areas such as military and police preparedness and reiterated
that he looked forward to achieving Iraqi control over
security. Ultimately the decisions about the U.S. presence
in Iraq, Maliki underscored, remained with the U.S.
president. End Summary.


2. (SBU) Participants in the delegation included Speaker
Pelosi (D-CA),Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO),Rep. Tom Lantos
(D-CA),Rep. Sylvestre Reyes (D-TX),Rep. John Murtha (D-PA),
Rep. Nita Lowey, (D-NY),and Rep. David Hobson (D-OH). The
Ambassador also participated in the meeting with PM Maliki,
along with Congressional staff members.

-------------- --------------
Speaker Pelosi: American People Want New Direction
-------------- --------------


3. (S) Prime Minister Maliki initiated the discussion by
welcoming the delegation and pointing out to Speaker Pelosi
positive developments since the last time she traveled to
Iraq. He noted the successful passage of a constitution,
parliamentary elections, and the organization of a new
government. Security remained a serious concern, but he and
others in his government sought to increase the visibility
and capability of Iraqi Security Forces. Speaker Pelosi
expressed appreciation to Maliki for receiving the
delegation, stating that the high level of the members was an
indication of the high priority Iraq is for the Congress and
the American people. She asserted that the American people
had "called for a new direction in Iraq" in the November
elections. Stating that such a change received bipartisan
support, Speaker Pelosi then turned to Rep. Hobson to make
further comments. Rep. Hobson told PM Maliki that he
appreciated the sacrifices Iraq was making as it seeks to
restore security. He and others in Congress, however, sought
to find a way to redeploy U.S. troops from combat positions
as rapidly as possible and begin reducing the U.S. military
presence in Iraq.

-------------- --------------
PM Maliki: Troop Reduction in Three to Six Months
-------------- --------------


4. (S) Expressing understanding of Rep. Hobson's concern, PM
Maliki replied that Iraqis did not take comfort in the large
number of U.S. troops killed in their country. He hoped we
would soon see the moment when MNF-I would not have to be on
the frontlines. American troops liberated Iraq, but it was
now up to Iraqis to take control and be at the forefront. He
noted the importance of the political process. He also cited
the need for continued training for Iraqi Security Forces and
better military equipment. If Iraq received that support,
the PM said, MNF-I could remove "50,000 to 60,000 troops
within three to six months."


5. (S) Speaker Pelosi and others in the delegation said they
were glad to hear what they characterized as PM Maliki's
commitment to a troop reduction; they would carry this
message back to the Congress and their constituents. Rep.
Skelton asked PM Maliki what would happen after three to six
months -- would there be a further downsizing of the U.S.
military presence and would MNF-I forces increasingly serve
more in a support role? Maliki replied that he understood
patience was running out in the U.S. Iraqi leaders and
commanders were eager to take on greater responsibility for
security, as he had stated in his letter attached to the
December UN Security Council Resolution on extending the
MNF-I presence. Maliki mentioned the creation of a Command
and Control committee to coordinate the transfer of authority
to Iraqi forces, and he remained committed to repositioning
MNF-I troops into a support role. Ultimately, however, the

BAGHDAD 00000318 002 OF 003


size and function of the U.S. military presence in Iraq
remained a decision to be taken in Washington.

--------------
Rep. Murtha: No New Military Funding
--------------


6. (S) Rep. Murtha asked PM Maliki what he meant when he said
he needed U.S. support for training and equipment -- hadn't
Iraq received substantial assistance already? PM Maliki
replied that the U.S. had provided significant assistance,
but there could be more, particularly in the provision of
equipment. Murtha asked if Iraq sought financial assistance.
Maliki responded that Iraq planned to spend USD 7 billion on
security in 2007, which he understood would be matched by USD
5.4 billion in Iraqi Security Forces Funding from the U.S.
He expressed general concern about equipment shortages for
the ISF, citing the specific need for armored vehicles and
light weapons. Rep. Murtha stated that he hoped PM Maliki
had not been misled into thinking that Iraqi forces would
ever reach the level of U.S. forces. He said he would oppose
any proposal to provide the additional funding discussed by
Maliki and, in his view, such a measure would never be
approved by the current Congress. Maliki commented that
perhaps Iraq could obtain additional funds by increasing oil
production, as OPEC had granted Iraq an increase in oil
exports. He emphasized that money should not become an
obstacle to Iraq's democratic experiment.


7. (SBU) Rep. Reyes stressed that all the members of the
delegation agreed that MNF-I should transfer leadership over
security to Iraqis and that this should happen quickly. The
U.S. had been committed to supporting Iraq for a little over
four years to a degree that was "about as much as we could
muster." Rep. Lowey underscored the importance of urgency in
bringing about a political agreement, without which there
could be no security. Meanwhile, the number of deaths in
Iraq was "growing and growing," as Iranian influence and
"investment" continued to increase. Rep. Lowey also
expressed concern about the slow reconstruction, which was
impeded by corruption and insecurity. She urged that the GOI
produce successes, so Congress members can tell constituents
that U.S. expenditures in Iraq are producing positive
results.

--------------
Iraq Wants Control over Security
--------------


8. (S) PM Maliki stated that up until that point the command
of Iraqi security forces had been in the hands of the
Americans. "Give us that command," Maliki said, "and then
you can hold us accountable." He urged that Iraqi forces be
put in front, with MNF-I remaining nearby until greater
security is achieved. He pointed to progress over the past
two months, singling out the police as performing
particularly well. The Iraqi state had been completely
destroyed, and the process of rebuilding it could not come
easily. Maliki said his government was also recovering from
corruption in the previous government, particularly in the
ministries of Interior and Defense. He cited progress in the
fact that there had been more construction in the past three
years than in the entire ten years before. Government
salaries had increased dramatically.


9. (S) Rep Lantos asked PM Maliki his vision, to the greatest
degree of specificity, of how the U.S. will continue to
reduce its troop presence in Iraq -- what happens after the
first 50,000 mentioned by Maliki depart? What are the
numbers and when will they leave? Maliki replied he could
not speculate about what the situation would be like in three
to six months but reported that in Amman he and President
Bush agreed that Iraq should be in the lead over security.
It would be a decision of the American president as to when
and to what degree U.S. troops would withdraw. Maliki then
asked the delegation if the Democrats would support the U.S.
Administration's efforts to speed up the development of Iraqi
Security Forces. Speaker Pelosi responded that she saw no
support for underwriting Iraqi military purchases when Iraq
has a USD 30 billion budget. She said that to the extent
that the poor security situation in Iraq continued, any
American politician who supported the war had "lost the ear
of the American people." She added that in her view PM
Maliki was in a better position to help President Bush than
anyone through efforts to produce positive results.

--------------
Civil War or Political Violence?

BAGHDAD 00000318 003 OF 003


--------------


10. (S) Speaker Pelosi related that there is a percentage of
the U.S. population that believed a civil war was going on in
Iraq. She queried PM Maliki as to his characterization of
the situation. Maliki responded that he did not believe Iraq
was engaged in a civil war -- all sectors were against civil
war. Rather, he said, neighboring countries were feeding
sectarian violence and interfering in Iraq. The GOI had
noticed that the level of sectarian violence was actually
decreasing, but the number of political killings was
increasing. Speaker Pelosi asked if PM Maliki was a party to
the plan to surge the number of U.S. troops in Iraq. Maliki
pointed to the importance of Baghdad security and stated that
Iraqi Security Forces planned to go against all violators of
the law during the surge.

--------------
Congress Wants Iraq to Succeed
--------------


11. (SBU) Speaker Pelosi closed the meeting by underscoring
that all members of the delegation, indeed all Members of
Congress, wanted to see Iraq succeed. In speaking candidly
with the PM about issues such as funding, she stressed, the
delegation sought to ensure that PM Maliki, as a friend,
clearly understood the position of the U.S. Congress.


12. (U) Speaker Pelosi made a positive statement to Iraqi TV
after the meeting with the PM.


13. (U) CODEL Pelosi did not clear this cable.
SPECKHARD