NO CONFIDENCE VOTE FOR PM? VOTE COUNTING IN THE COR

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 003132 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017 TAGS: IR IZ PGOV SUBJECT: NO CONFIDENCE VOTE FOR PM? VOTE COUNTING IN THE COR REF: BAGHDAD 03119 Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Robert Waller for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) On September 16th Muqtada al-Sadr ordered the 28 members of the Sadr Trend bloc in Iraqi's Council of Representatives (COR) to withdraw from the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA) and form a national alliance with Sunni or Shi'a members. According to Sadrist COR Member Baha al-Araji, Sadr hopes to form a new national bloc with other Sunni and Shi'a opposition parties (reftel). The Shi'a parties not affiliated with the UIA are Fadhila (15 votes) and Qassam Daoud's Solidarity Bloc (10 votes). Da'wa Tanzim (13 votes) is currently part of UIA but is reportedly splitting from the bloc, as could at least some of the 20 Shi'a independents who typically align themselves with the UIA. Non-Shi'a members that might join the Sadrists include Hiwar (11 votes), Tawafuq (44 votes),and Iraqiya (25 votes). The Sadrists themselves boast 28 votes, so in theory an alliance of the above parties and independents could muster some 146 votes ) putting them over the 138 votes necessary to topple a Prime Minister. ¶2. (C) Comment: Although the Sadrists have been only nominal members of the UIA for some time, their departure is still a blow to Maliki. The defection of Da,wa Tanzim would compound matters, and clearly put Maliki,s enemies within striking distance of being able to call for and win a vote of no confidence. For the moment, however, all of the opposition parties appear more interested in holding this threat over Maliki,s head than in actually attempting to topple him ) not least because we see little likelihood of the Sadrists and Tawafuq reaching any sort of agreement on forming a new government. END COMMENT. BUTENIS