NO CONFIDENCE VOTE FOR PM? VOTE COUNTING IN THE COR

S E C R E T BAGHDAD 003132

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/17/2017
TAGS: IR IZ PGOV
SUBJECT: NO CONFIDENCE VOTE FOR PM? VOTE COUNTING IN THE COR

REF: BAGHDAD 03119

Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Robert Waller for reasons 1.4
(b) and (d).


1. (C) On September 16th Muqtada al-Sadr ordered the 28
members of the Sadr Trend bloc in Iraqi's Council of
Representatives (COR) to withdraw from the United Iraqi
Alliance (UIA) and form a national alliance with Sunni or
Shi'a members. According to Sadrist COR Member Baha al-Araji,
Sadr hopes to form a new national bloc with other Sunni and
Shi'a opposition parties (reftel). The Shi'a parties not
affiliated with the UIA are Fadhila (15 votes) and Qassam
Daoud's Solidarity Bloc (10 votes). Da'wa Tanzim (13 votes)
is currently part of UIA but is reportedly splitting from the
bloc, as could at least some of the 20 Shi'a independents who
typically align themselves with the UIA. Non-Shi'a members
that might join the Sadrists include Hiwar (11 votes),
Tawafuq (44 votes),and Iraqiya (25 votes). The Sadrists
themselves boast 28 votes, so in theory an alliance of the
above parties and independents could muster some 146 votes )
putting them over the 138 votes necessary to topple a Prime
Minister.


2. (C) Comment: Although the Sadrists have been only nominal
members of the UIA for some time, their departure is still a
blow to Maliki. The defection of Da,wa Tanzim would
compound matters, and clearly put Maliki,s enemies within
striking distance of being able to call for and win a vote of
no confidence. For the moment, however, all of the
opposition parties appear more interested in holding this
threat over Maliki,s head than in actually attempting to
topple him ) not least because we see little likelihood of
the Sadrists and Tawafuq reaching any sort of agreement on
forming a new government. END COMMENT.
BUTENIS