BAGHDAD IDP STATISTICS SHOW DISPLACEMENTS CONTINUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAGHDAD 002736 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR IZ SUBJECT: BAGHDAD IDP STATISTICS SHOW DISPLACEMENTS CONTINUE AT TROUBLING RATES REF: BAGHDAD 1147 Classified By: Baghdad PRT Team Leader Phyllis Powers for reasons 1.4 ( B) and (D). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Government of Iraq (GoI) statistics indicate that displacements in Baghdad province continue, turning once mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhoods into homogenous areas in which one sect constitutes a clear majority. Statistics provided by the Baghdad Provincial Council (PC) show that about 60,000 Baghdad families (or about 360,000 individuals - GoI statistics assume that the average Iraqi family has six members) have been displaced since February 2006. PC figures show that about 24,000 of these families (or about 144,000 individuals) have registered themselves as displaced in the past four months. Statistics provided by eight of Baghdad,s nine district councils show that there are about 53,000 IDP families (or about 318,000 individuals) registered inside the city of Baghdad alone, without counting thousands of displaced persons living in Baghdad province,s six outlying areas. Statistics provided by the Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MoDM) branch offices show that there are 53,587 IDP families (about 321,522 individuals) registered in Baghdad province (5,587 families in west Baghdad and 48,000 families in east Baghdad). United Nations and Non-Governmental Organization statistics show lower levels of displacement in Baghdad Province. ¶2. (C) BACKGROUND: Official Iraqi statistics on internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Baghdad province vary among the different government entities that track them: the District Councils, the Provincial Council (PC),and the MoDM Karkh and Rusafa branch offices. Most GoI interlocutors who track IDP numbers report that many IDPs in Baghdad province, particularly Sunnis, do not register their displacements with the government. Accordingly, they say, the real number of IDPs is probably much higher than any GoI statistic would indicate. This cable will first present IDP statistics provided by eight of Baghdad's nine District Councils (one district, Rashid, could not provide recent data),the Provincial Council (PC),and the Karkh and Rusafa MoDM branch offices. While presenting the numbers provided by the District Councils, this cable will also examine which sects tend to flee to and from which districts. Second, this cable will present IDP statistics provided by the PC. Third, this cable will present IDP statistics provided by the MoDM branch offices in east and west Baghdad (Rusafa and Karkh respectively). Septel will provide statistics and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) tracking IDP statistics in Baghdad. Septel will also describe the registration process for Baghdad IDPs to shed light on why many IDPs, particularly Sunnis, have not registered. END BACKGROUND AND SUMMARY. Baghdad IDPs: The Numbers from the City,s District Councils -------------- -------------- ¶3. (SBU) Eight of Baghdad,s nine District Councils provided PRToff with the number of IDP families currently registered with each council,s committee for migration and displacement (Rashid district was unable to provide recent numbers). The total number of IDP families registered with these eight District Councils (Adhamiya, Kadhamiya, Mansour, Sadr City, Nine Nissan, Rusafa, Karkh and Karada) is 48,962, or about 293,772 individuals. The breakdown is as follows: Adhamiya: 4,200 Kadhamiya: 11,662 Mansour: 3,000 Sadr City: 6,000 Nine Nissan: 7,735 Rusafa: 4,365 Karada: 6,000 Karkh: 6,000 Rashid: unavailable TOTAL: 48,962 ¶4. (SBU) The 48,962 families figure does not/not include IDPs registered in the Rashid district, which declined to provide PRToffs with the number of IDPs registered with the District Council because its data was not recently updated. Rashid has experienced several months of forced displacements by both Sunni and Shia militias. According to PRT contacts from various parts of Rashid, there are likely several thousand IDPs registered in Rashid. A reasonable estimate of IDP families registered in Rashid based on reports from residents and discussions with DC, PC and MoDM officials would be 4,000 (or about 24,000 individuals). Accordingly, there are probably about 53,000 IDP families (or 318,000 individuals) within Baghdad city limits registered with Baghdad,s nine District Councils. BAGHDAD 00002736 002 OF 005 ¶5. (SBU) The 53,000 families figure does not/not include thousands of IDPs registered with qada councils that oversee areas that are part of Baghdad province but not Baghdad city. As of April 2007 five of the six qadas ) Mada,in, Tarmiya, Taji, Istiqlal and Mahmoudiya ) collectively hosted about 10,000 IDP families. Data was not available from Abu Ghraib, which PC and MoDM contacts say likely hosts at least 2,000 Sunni IDPs from the nearby Mansour and Rashid districts of Baghdad city, as well as the adjacent Al-Anbar province. A conservative estimate of the number of IDP families in Baghdad province registered with district and qada councils, based on the above recent figures from the District Councils and April 2007 figures from the qadas, is about 65,000 (or about 390,000 individuals). Kadhamiya DC says Sunnis Fleeing, Shia Coming In -------------- --- ¶6. (SBU) District Council (DC) members from Kadhamiya (a predominantly Shia district in northwest Baghdad) told PRToff that nearly all of the families driven out of Kadhamiya are Sunni, while nearly all of the displaced families who have fled to Kadhamiya are Shia. They said that displacements from the district have leveled off because few Sunni families remain, but that Shia families being displaced from other unstable areas, primarily Ghazalia, Jamia, Dora, and Diyala, continue to flee to Kadhamiya. DC members said few families displaced from Kadhamiya have returned to the area, and that few displaced families living in Kadhamiya have returned to their homes. They said that many displaced families living in Kadhamiya are staying with relatives and have not registered at all. ¶7. (SBU) The DC estimated that around 8,000 families (or about 48,000 individuals) have been displaced from Kadhamiya since February 2006. DC members said that as of the end of May 2007 there were 11,662 families registered as displaced with the DC. According to their records there were 2,253 displaced families living in Zahra; 5,000 in Hurriya; 1,000 in Salam; and 3,409 in Shula. They said that most displaced families residing in Kadhamiya had not completed the process of registering. As a result, only 4,997 displaced families in Kadhamiya were registered with the Ministry of Displacement and Migration (MODM) as of June 1, 2007. Mansour DC: Sunnis and Shia Fleeing, Sunnis Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶8. (SBU) Mansour is a predominantly Sunni district with a handful of Shia and somewhat mixed enclaves. Mansour DC members said most displaced families living in Mansour are Sunni families driven out of predominantly Shia areas of Baghdad, particularly Hurriya and Shula (both neighborhoods from the adjacent predominantly Shia Kadhamiya district). DC members from said there were 3,000 displaced families, or about 18,000 displaced individuals, registered with the council as of August 1, 2007. DC members said this is an increase of 1,375 families (about 4,125 individuals) in the past two months. ¶9. (C) DC members noted most of the displaced families who have fled Mansour are Shia families driven out by Sunni militants. They said Sunni militants have carried out block by block sectarian cleansing in Ameriya, Khadra, Adel and Jamia and that few Shia families remain in these areas. They said that increasing Iraqi Army presence has helped stabilize Yarmouk, Mansour, Iskan, Washash, Hateen, and Qadasiya, but that the DC does not know how to reach families who have left the area to tell them it is safe to return. They said that using the media might invite new militant activity to these areas. Karkh DC: Sunnis and Shia Fleeing, Shia Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶10. (SBU) Karkh is a predominantly Sunni district with several mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhoods. Karkh DC members said most IDPs registered in the district are Shia coming from the neighboring Rashid and Mansour districts. They said there are about 6,000 IDP families registered with the District Council, most of them Shia. DC members said they were unsure how many people had been displaced from Karkh. 9 Nissan DC: Sunnis and Christians Fleeing, Shia Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶11. (SBU) DC members in 9 Nissan said the council continues to register the arrival of dozens of IDPs to the district each week, but displacements from the district appear to have slowed significantly since April. (Comment: PRT contacts from 9 Nissan say one reason displacements from the district slowed is that the area had already been &cleansed8 of most BAGHDAD 00002736 003 OF 005 Sunnis and Christians by early 2007. End comment.) DC members from 9 Nissan said that as of late May there were 7,735 displaced families (or about 46,410 individuals) registered in the district. They added that nearly all of the displaced families who relocated to the district are Shia. ¶12. (SBU) DC members had no estimate for how many families were displaced from 9 Nissan, but said most of those who fled were wealthy Shia, Sunni and Shia Baathists, Christians, and Palestinians. Rusafa DC: Upper Class Sunni and Shia IDPs Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶13. (SBU) Rusafa DC members said that about 75 percent of the displaced families who relocate to Rusafa are Shia and almost all of the displaced families, both Sunni and Shia, either stay with relatives or rent apartments. They said there are no IDP camps in the district and few reports of IDPs squatting in vacant homes or abandoned buildings. DC members said that most Shia IDPs come from the predominantly Sunni neighborhood of Al-Fadl within the Rusafa district, followed by predominantly Sunni neighborhoods of other Baghdad districts, including Abu Ghraib, Ameriya (Mansour district), Dora (East Rashid district),Ghazaliya (Mansour district) and Adel (Mansour district). ¶14. (SBU) DC members said that as of the end of June, there were 4,365 displaced families (or about 26,190 individuals) registered in Rusafa. They added that 807 of those families registered between November 2006 and March 2007, and 3,558 registered between April 1, 2007 and the end of June 2007. Members of the council,s committee for migration and displacement said probably half of the 3,558 families who registered between April 1 and the end of June had actually been displaced before that, but had chosen not to register until the GoI announced that a grant of one million Iraqi dinars would be dispersed to registered displaced families who can prove they have returned to their homes. Sunni West Adhamiya: Shia Driven Out, Sunnis Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶15. (SBU) DC members from the Sunni part of Adhamiya said nearly all IDP families in their area are Sunni and that most IDPs who had been driven from the area were Shia. (Note: Adhamiya is effectively divided into the predominantly Shia half east of the Army canal and the predominantly Sunni half west of the Army canal. End note.) DC members said displacements from west Adhamiya have basically stopped and that arrivals of IDPs to west Adhamiya have slowed down over the past three or four months. They said hardly any families displaced from west Adhamiya have returned. ¶16. (SBU) DC members from the predominantly Sunni western half of Adhamiya said there are about 2,500 displaced families (or about 15,000 individuals) living in their half of the district and that about 625 of those arrived between March 2007 and July 2007. They said most IDPs in their area were Sunnis who had fled Shaab, Hay Ur, Husseiniya, Shula, Hurriya and Sadr City. ¶17. (SBU) DC members estimated that between 300 and 500 Shia families had been driven out of primarily Sunni parts of the district and perhaps another 350 Sunni families murdered between February 2006 and July 2007. DC members added that most IDPs in west Adhamiya are either staying with relatives or renting apartments. Shia East Adhamiya: Sunnis Driven Out, Shia Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶18. (SBU) DC members from the predominantly eastern half of Adhamiya said the vast majority of these IDPs registered in their area are Shia, and that most IDPs who fled the area are Sunni. They said there are about 1,700 IDP families registered on the east side of the district. Karada DC: Baathists Fled, Sunnis and Shia Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶19. (SBU) Karada DC members said the district is among the safest in the city and that accordingly relatively few families have fled. They added that the majority of those who fled were wealthy Sunni and Shia Baathists who left for Jordan soon after the U.S. invasion in 2003. ¶20. (SBU) Karada DC members told PRToff that there were 6,000 IDP families (or about 36,000 invididuals) registered with the DC as of the end of July 2007. They said this number increased from 4,500 at the end of June 2007 and 3,500 at the end of January 2007. BAGHDAD 00002736 004 OF 005 ¶21. (SBU) DC members said that wealthier IDPs stay with relatives or rent apartments in the affluent Karada peninsula, while poorer IDPs stay in abandoned buildings in Zafraniya. Sadr City DC: Few Displacements of Sunnis, Shia Coming In -------------- -------------- ¶22. (SBU) Sadr City DC members said there have been few displacements from the district because it was almost exclusively Shia to begin with, and because the area is relatively safe. They told PRToffs that there are about 6,000 IDP families (or about 36,000 individuals) based in Sadr City, most of whom they said are Shia staying with relatives or renting properties. DC members said there are no IDP camps and very few squatters in the district. PC Says 60,000 IDP Families Registered in Baghdad Province -------------- -------------- ¶23. (SBU) Members of the Baghdad Provincial Council committee for Migration and Displacement told PRToff the number of displaced families in Baghdad province registered with the PC reached about 60,000 (or about 360,000 individuals) at the end of July 2007, up from 43,000 families (258,000 individuals) at the beginning of May 2007 and up from about 36,000 families (216,000 individuals) at the beginning of April 2007. PC members did not yet have their data broken down by district and qada. The breakdown by district and qada in April 2007 is available in Reftel. ¶24. (SBU) PC members said families continue to be displaced primarily for sectarian reasons. They added that 2,000 families returned to their homes in the past two months and have completed the necessary paperwork to receive a one million Iraqi dinar grant disbursed by the governor,s office for IDPs who return to their Baghdad homes. As of May 27, 600 displaced families had returned to their homes and completed the necessary paperwork for eligibility for the grant. MoDM Karkh Branch Office Has Registered 5,587 IDP Families -------------- -------------- ¶25. (SBU) The Director General (DG) of the MoDM Karkh (west Baghdad) branch office, which registers IDPs from west Baghdad, told PRToffs that it registered 5,587 IDP families (or about 33,522 individuals) from the day the office opened on March 29, 2007 until July 31, 2007. He added that over 4,000 of these families (or about 24,000) of these families registered since June 1. ¶26. (SBU) Employees in the Karkh branch said the office has processed an average of about 200 IDP families per day since opening and that registrations do not seem to be decreasing. When asked how many families have registered as having returned home, the DG replied that he did not know exactly how many. He added that the number of IDP families returning home in west Baghdad was in the tens, not the hundreds or thousands. MoDM Rusafa Branch Office Has Registered 48,000 IDP Families -------------- -------------- ¶27. (SBU) The DG of the MoDM Rusafa branch office, Ali Abdel Kareem Jalil, said his office registered about 48,000 IDP families (or about 288,000 individuals) between April 2006 and July 31, 2007. (Note: The Rusafa branch office, which is located in a predominantly Shia neighborhood of east Baghdad, used to register all IDPs in Baghdad province. The MoDM opened the Karkh Branch office in a mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhood in March 2007 to make it easier for residents of west Baghdad and safer for Sunnis to register. End note.) He added that this number was a significant increase from January 2007, when the branch office had registered 24,983 families (8,142 on the Karkh side and 16,841 on the Rusafa side). He said the Rusafa branch office had registered 8,529 families as of November 2006 (5,575 on the Karkh side and 2,954 on the Rusafa side). ¶28. (SBU) Jalil said of the 48,000 IDP families registered at the Rusafa branch office, around 15,000 families registered from January 2007 to March 2007 and about 7,500 from April 2007 until the end of July 2007. He said 2,019 families had registered as having returned to their homes between April 2007 and the end of July 2007. ¶29. (C) Jalil was noticeably uncomfortable when asked if political offices such as the Office of the Martyr Sadr (OMS) brought IDP files to the branch office. He replied that most files come to the Rusafa branch office either through representatives from District Councils or by the IDPs themselves. BAGHDAD 00002736 005 OF 005 The Real Numbers? -------------- ¶30. (C) Statistics provided by the eight District Councils indicate the highest numbers to date of IDPs in Baghdad province. (Note: This assumes that in addition to the some 53,000 IDP families registered in the city of Baghdad that there are at least 12,000 IDP families registered with the qada councils in the province,s outlying areas, as there were in April 2007. End Note) Council members from each of the eight districts that provided numbers said the real number of IDPs in their districts is probably higher. Many District Council members said that wealthier families who do not rely on the PDS or have children in public schools have no reason to register themselves as displaced. Others said that many IDPs affiliated with political parties, particularly the Sadrist movement, benefit from the party,s social programs and do not need to register themselves as displaced with the GoI. CROCKER