BAGHDAD IDP STATISTICS SHOW DISPLACEMENTS CONTINUE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 BAGHDAD 002736

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR IZ
SUBJECT: BAGHDAD IDP STATISTICS SHOW DISPLACEMENTS CONTINUE
AT TROUBLING RATES

REF: BAGHDAD 1147

Classified By: Baghdad PRT Team Leader Phyllis Powers for reasons 1.4 (
B) and (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: Government of Iraq (GoI) statistics indicate
that displacements in Baghdad province continue, turning once
mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhoods into homogenous areas in which
one sect constitutes a clear majority. Statistics provided
by the Baghdad Provincial Council (PC) show that about 60,000
Baghdad families (or about 360,000 individuals - GoI
statistics assume that the average Iraqi family has six
members) have been displaced since February 2006. PC figures
show that about 24,000 of these families (or about 144,000
individuals) have registered themselves as displaced in the
past four months. Statistics provided by eight of Baghdad,s
nine district councils show that there are about 53,000 IDP
families (or about 318,000 individuals) registered inside the
city of Baghdad alone, without counting thousands of
displaced persons living in Baghdad province,s six outlying
areas. Statistics provided by the Ministry of Displacement
and Migration (MoDM) branch offices show that there are
53,587 IDP families (about 321,522 individuals) registered in
Baghdad province (5,587 families in west Baghdad and 48,000
families in east Baghdad). United Nations and
Non-Governmental Organization statistics show lower levels of
displacement in Baghdad Province.


2. (C) BACKGROUND: Official Iraqi statistics on internally
displaced persons (IDPs) in Baghdad province vary among the
different government entities that track them: the District
Councils, the Provincial Council (PC),and the MoDM Karkh and
Rusafa branch offices. Most GoI interlocutors who track IDP
numbers report that many IDPs in Baghdad province,
particularly Sunnis, do not register their displacements with
the government. Accordingly, they say, the real number of
IDPs is probably much higher than any GoI statistic would
indicate. This cable will first present IDP statistics
provided by eight of Baghdad's nine District Councils (one
district, Rashid, could not provide recent data),the
Provincial Council (PC),and the Karkh and Rusafa MoDM branch
offices. While presenting the numbers provided by the
District Councils, this cable will also examine which sects
tend to flee to and from which districts. Second, this cable
will present IDP statistics provided by the PC. Third, this
cable will present IDP statistics provided by the MoDM branch
offices in east and west Baghdad (Rusafa and Karkh
respectively). Septel will provide statistics and
non-governmental organizations (NGOs) tracking IDP statistics
in Baghdad. Septel will also describe the registration
process for Baghdad IDPs to shed light on why many IDPs,
particularly Sunnis, have not registered. END BACKGROUND AND
SUMMARY.

Baghdad IDPs: The Numbers from the City,s District Councils
-------------- --------------


3. (SBU) Eight of Baghdad,s nine District Councils provided
PRToff with the number of IDP families currently registered
with each council,s committee for migration and displacement
(Rashid district was unable to provide recent numbers). The
total number of IDP families registered with these eight
District Councils (Adhamiya, Kadhamiya, Mansour, Sadr City,
Nine Nissan, Rusafa, Karkh and Karada) is 48,962, or about
293,772 individuals. The breakdown is as follows:

Adhamiya: 4,200
Kadhamiya: 11,662
Mansour: 3,000
Sadr City: 6,000
Nine Nissan: 7,735
Rusafa: 4,365
Karada: 6,000
Karkh: 6,000
Rashid: unavailable
TOTAL: 48,962


4. (SBU) The 48,962 families figure does not/not include IDPs
registered in the Rashid district, which declined to provide
PRToffs with the number of IDPs registered with the District
Council because its data was not recently updated. Rashid
has experienced several months of forced displacements by
both Sunni and Shia militias. According to PRT contacts from
various parts of Rashid, there are likely several thousand
IDPs registered in Rashid. A reasonable estimate of IDP
families registered in Rashid based on reports from residents
and discussions with DC, PC and MoDM officials would be 4,000
(or about 24,000 individuals). Accordingly, there are
probably about 53,000 IDP families (or 318,000 individuals)
within Baghdad city limits registered with Baghdad,s nine
District Councils.


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5. (SBU) The 53,000 families figure does not/not include
thousands of IDPs registered with qada councils that oversee
areas that are part of Baghdad province but not Baghdad city.
As of April 2007 five of the six qadas ) Mada,in, Tarmiya,
Taji, Istiqlal and Mahmoudiya ) collectively hosted about
10,000 IDP families. Data was not available from Abu Ghraib,
which PC and MoDM contacts say likely hosts at least 2,000
Sunni IDPs from the nearby Mansour and Rashid districts of
Baghdad city, as well as the adjacent Al-Anbar province. A
conservative estimate of the number of IDP families in
Baghdad province registered with district and qada councils,
based on the above recent figures from the District Councils
and April 2007 figures from the qadas, is about 65,000 (or
about 390,000 individuals).

Kadhamiya DC says Sunnis Fleeing, Shia Coming In
-------------- ---


6. (SBU) District Council (DC) members from Kadhamiya (a
predominantly Shia district in northwest Baghdad) told PRToff
that nearly all of the families driven out of Kadhamiya are
Sunni, while nearly all of the displaced families who have
fled to Kadhamiya are Shia. They said that displacements
from the district have leveled off because few Sunni families
remain, but that Shia families being displaced from other
unstable areas, primarily Ghazalia, Jamia, Dora, and Diyala,
continue to flee to Kadhamiya. DC members said few families
displaced from Kadhamiya have returned to the area, and that
few displaced families living in Kadhamiya have returned to
their homes. They said that many displaced families living
in Kadhamiya are staying with relatives and have not
registered at all.


7. (SBU) The DC estimated that around 8,000 families (or
about 48,000 individuals) have been displaced from Kadhamiya
since February 2006. DC members said that as of the end of
May 2007 there were 11,662 families registered as displaced
with the DC. According to their records there were 2,253
displaced families living in Zahra; 5,000 in Hurriya; 1,000
in Salam; and 3,409 in Shula. They said that most displaced
families residing in Kadhamiya had not completed the process
of registering. As a result, only 4,997 displaced families in
Kadhamiya were registered with the Ministry of Displacement
and Migration (MODM) as of June 1, 2007.

Mansour DC: Sunnis and Shia Fleeing, Sunnis Coming In
-------------- --------------


8. (SBU) Mansour is a predominantly Sunni district with a
handful of Shia and somewhat mixed enclaves. Mansour DC
members said most displaced families living in Mansour are
Sunni families driven out of predominantly Shia areas of
Baghdad, particularly Hurriya and Shula (both neighborhoods
from the adjacent predominantly Shia Kadhamiya district). DC
members from said there were 3,000 displaced families, or
about 18,000 displaced individuals, registered with the
council as of August 1, 2007. DC members said this is an
increase of 1,375 families (about 4,125 individuals) in the
past two months.


9. (C) DC members noted most of the displaced families who
have fled Mansour are Shia families driven out by Sunni
militants. They said Sunni militants have carried out block
by block sectarian cleansing in Ameriya, Khadra, Adel and
Jamia and that few Shia families remain in these areas. They
said that increasing Iraqi Army presence has helped stabilize
Yarmouk, Mansour, Iskan, Washash, Hateen, and Qadasiya, but
that the DC does not know how to reach families who have left
the area to tell them it is safe to return. They said that
using the media might invite new militant activity to these
areas.

Karkh DC: Sunnis and Shia Fleeing, Shia Coming In
-------------- --------------


10. (SBU) Karkh is a predominantly Sunni district with
several mixed Sunni/Shia neighborhoods. Karkh DC members
said most IDPs registered in the district are Shia coming
from the neighboring Rashid and Mansour districts. They said
there are about 6,000 IDP families registered with the
District Council, most of them Shia. DC members said they
were unsure how many people had been displaced from Karkh.

9 Nissan DC: Sunnis and Christians Fleeing, Shia Coming In
-------------- --------------


11. (SBU) DC members in 9 Nissan said the council continues
to register the arrival of dozens of IDPs to the district
each week, but displacements from the district appear to have
slowed significantly since April. (Comment: PRT contacts
from 9 Nissan say one reason displacements from the district
slowed is that the area had already been &cleansed8 of most

BAGHDAD 00002736 003 OF 005


Sunnis and Christians by early 2007. End comment.) DC members
from 9 Nissan said that as of late May there were 7,735
displaced families (or about 46,410 individuals) registered
in the district. They added that nearly all of the displaced
families who relocated to the district are Shia.


12. (SBU) DC members had no estimate for how many families
were displaced from 9 Nissan, but said most of those who fled
were wealthy Shia, Sunni and Shia Baathists, Christians, and
Palestinians.

Rusafa DC: Upper Class Sunni and Shia IDPs Coming In
-------------- --------------


13. (SBU) Rusafa DC members said that about 75 percent of the
displaced families who relocate to Rusafa are Shia and almost
all of the displaced families, both Sunni and Shia, either
stay with relatives or rent apartments. They said there are
no IDP camps in the district and few reports of IDPs
squatting in vacant homes or abandoned buildings. DC members
said that most Shia IDPs come from the predominantly Sunni
neighborhood of Al-Fadl within the Rusafa district, followed
by predominantly Sunni neighborhoods of other Baghdad
districts, including Abu Ghraib, Ameriya (Mansour district),
Dora (East Rashid district),Ghazaliya (Mansour district) and
Adel (Mansour district).


14. (SBU) DC members said that as of the end of June, there
were 4,365 displaced families (or about 26,190 individuals)
registered in Rusafa. They added that 807 of those families
registered between November 2006 and March 2007, and 3,558
registered between April 1, 2007 and the end of June 2007.
Members of the council,s committee for migration and
displacement said probably half of the 3,558 families who
registered between April 1 and the end of June had actually
been displaced before that, but had chosen not to register
until the GoI announced that a grant of one million Iraqi
dinars would be dispersed to registered displaced families
who can prove they have returned to their homes.

Sunni West Adhamiya: Shia Driven Out, Sunnis Coming In
-------------- --------------


15. (SBU) DC members from the Sunni part of Adhamiya said
nearly all IDP families in their area are Sunni and that most
IDPs who had been driven from the area were Shia. (Note:
Adhamiya is effectively divided into the predominantly Shia
half east of the Army canal and the predominantly Sunni half
west of the Army canal. End note.) DC members said
displacements from west Adhamiya have basically stopped and
that arrivals of IDPs to west Adhamiya have slowed down over
the past three or four months. They said hardly any families
displaced from west Adhamiya have returned.


16. (SBU) DC members from the predominantly Sunni western
half of Adhamiya said there are about 2,500 displaced
families (or about 15,000 individuals) living in their half
of the district and that about 625 of those arrived between
March 2007 and July 2007. They said most IDPs in their area
were Sunnis who had fled Shaab, Hay Ur, Husseiniya, Shula,
Hurriya and Sadr City.


17. (SBU) DC members estimated that between 300 and 500 Shia
families had been driven out of primarily Sunni parts of the
district and perhaps another 350 Sunni families murdered
between February 2006 and July 2007. DC members added that
most IDPs in west Adhamiya are either staying with relatives
or renting apartments.

Shia East Adhamiya: Sunnis Driven Out, Shia Coming In
-------------- --------------


18. (SBU) DC members from the predominantly eastern half of
Adhamiya said the vast majority of these IDPs registered in
their area are Shia, and that most IDPs who fled the area are
Sunni. They said there are about 1,700 IDP families
registered on the east side of the district.

Karada DC: Baathists Fled, Sunnis and Shia Coming In
-------------- --------------


19. (SBU) Karada DC members said the district is among the
safest in the city and that accordingly relatively few
families have fled. They added that the majority of those
who fled were wealthy Sunni and Shia Baathists who left for
Jordan soon after the U.S. invasion in 2003.

20. (SBU) Karada DC members told PRToff that there were 6,000
IDP families (or about 36,000 invididuals) registered with
the DC as of the end of July 2007. They said this number
increased from 4,500 at the end of June 2007 and 3,500 at the
end of January 2007.


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21. (SBU) DC members said that wealthier IDPs stay with
relatives or rent apartments in the affluent Karada
peninsula, while poorer IDPs stay in abandoned buildings in
Zafraniya.

Sadr City DC: Few Displacements of Sunnis, Shia Coming In
-------------- --------------


22. (SBU) Sadr City DC members said there have been few
displacements from the district because it was almost
exclusively Shia to begin with, and because the area is
relatively safe. They told PRToffs that there are about
6,000 IDP families (or about 36,000 individuals) based in
Sadr City, most of whom they said are Shia staying with
relatives or renting properties. DC members said there are
no IDP camps and very few squatters in the district.

PC Says 60,000 IDP Families Registered in Baghdad Province
-------------- --------------


23. (SBU) Members of the Baghdad Provincial Council committee
for Migration and Displacement told PRToff the number of
displaced families in Baghdad province registered with the PC
reached about 60,000 (or about 360,000 individuals) at the
end of July 2007, up from 43,000 families (258,000
individuals) at the beginning of May 2007 and up from about
36,000 families (216,000 individuals) at the beginning of
April 2007. PC members did not yet have their data broken
down by district and qada. The breakdown by district and
qada in April 2007 is available in Reftel.


24. (SBU) PC members said families continue to be displaced
primarily for sectarian reasons. They added that 2,000
families returned to their homes in the past two months and
have completed the necessary paperwork to receive a one
million Iraqi dinar grant disbursed by the governor,s office
for IDPs who return to their Baghdad homes. As of May 27, 600
displaced families had returned to their homes and completed
the necessary paperwork for eligibility for the grant.

MoDM Karkh Branch Office Has Registered 5,587 IDP Families
-------------- --------------


25. (SBU) The Director General (DG) of the MoDM Karkh (west
Baghdad) branch office, which registers IDPs from west
Baghdad, told PRToffs that it registered 5,587 IDP families
(or about 33,522 individuals) from the day the office opened
on March 29, 2007 until July 31, 2007. He added that over
4,000 of these families (or about 24,000) of these families
registered since June 1.


26. (SBU) Employees in the Karkh branch said the office has
processed an average of about 200 IDP families per day since
opening and that registrations do not seem to be decreasing.
When asked how many families have registered as having
returned home, the DG replied that he did not know exactly
how many. He added that the number of IDP families returning
home in west Baghdad was in the tens, not the hundreds or
thousands.

MoDM Rusafa Branch Office Has Registered 48,000 IDP Families
-------------- --------------


27. (SBU) The DG of the MoDM Rusafa branch office, Ali Abdel
Kareem Jalil, said his office registered about 48,000 IDP
families (or about 288,000 individuals) between April 2006
and July 31, 2007. (Note: The Rusafa branch office, which is
located in a predominantly Shia neighborhood of east Baghdad,
used to register all IDPs in Baghdad province. The MoDM
opened the Karkh Branch office in a mixed Sunni/Shia
neighborhood in March 2007 to make it easier for residents of
west Baghdad and safer for Sunnis to register. End note.) He
added that this number was a significant increase from
January 2007, when the branch office had registered 24,983
families (8,142 on the Karkh side and 16,841 on the Rusafa
side). He said the Rusafa branch office had registered 8,529
families as of November 2006 (5,575 on the Karkh side and
2,954 on the Rusafa side).


28. (SBU) Jalil said of the 48,000 IDP families registered at
the Rusafa branch office, around 15,000 families registered
from January 2007 to March 2007 and about 7,500 from April
2007 until the end of July 2007. He said 2,019 families had
registered as having returned to their homes between April
2007 and the end of July 2007.


29. (C) Jalil was noticeably uncomfortable when asked if
political offices such as the Office of the Martyr Sadr (OMS)
brought IDP files to the branch office. He replied that most
files come to the Rusafa branch office either through
representatives from District Councils or by the IDPs
themselves.

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The Real Numbers?
--------------


30. (C) Statistics provided by the eight District Councils
indicate the highest numbers to date of IDPs in Baghdad
province. (Note: This assumes that in addition to the some
53,000 IDP families registered in the city of Baghdad that
there are at least 12,000 IDP families registered with the
qada councils in the province,s outlying areas, as there
were in April 2007. End Note) Council members from each of
the eight districts that provided numbers said the real
number of IDPs in their districts is probably higher. Many
District Council members said that wealthier families who do
not rely on the PDS or have children in public schools have
no reason to register themselves as displaced. Others said
that many IDPs affiliated with political parties,
particularly the Sadrist movement, benefit from the party,s
social programs and do not need to register themselves as
displaced with the GoI.
CROCKER