SUNNIS ARE AMERICA'S FRIENDS, SAYS HARD-LINER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002613 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/05/2017 TAGS: IZ KDEM PGOV PHUM SUBJECT: SUNNIS ARE AMERICA'S FRIENDS, SAYS HARD-LINER Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: Sunni hard-liners Khalaf Allyan and Adan Dulaymi told Ambassador Crocker that it was up to the U.S. to fix Iraq's problems by forcing the Shi'a and Kurds to accept their reconciliation demands, some of which were based on an unsubstantiated view of Iraqi reality (e.g., Sunnis outnumber Shi'a, 6.6 million displaced, 1.5 million killed, etc.). Allyan and Dulaymi want Sunnis returned to their homes and compensated before provincial elections, an Arab Foreign Minister, a third of all government positions, and a release of all detainees in the Coalition's custody. Yet many of their concerns, which led to the Tawafuq walkout from government on August 1, reflect mainstream Sunni sentiments (i.e., the belief that Iraqi Security Forces are sectarian and routinely violate human rights, that many of the detainees held by the Coalition should be released, that Sunnis are marginalized in the Maliki government, and that the Baghdad Security plan unfairly targets Sunni areas. Ambassador Crocker told Allyan and Dulaymi that solving Iraq's problems is an Iraqi responsibility and urged the Sunnis to remain engaged in the political process. Displaying his mistrust of moderate Tawafuq leader Tarik al-Hashimi, Allyan stated that he (Allyan) would not be bound by any political agreement to which he was not a party. Post will work to prevent Allyan and Dulaymi from being spoilers during the upcoming leadership meeting. END SUMMARY. Khalaf Allyan's Views At Odds with Reality -------------- ¶2. (C) Shaykh Khalaf Allyan and Adnan Dulaymi, two of the three leaders of the Sunni Tawafuq Coalition, met with Ambassador Crocker on August 2 and gave their view of Iraq's problems and solutions. Allyan declared brashly that he did not want the U.S. to leave Iraq defeated as that would strengthen Iran. Sunnis were allies, not enemies of the U.S., he asserted. Allyan said the Sunnis outnumber the Shi'a in Iraq by a 6 to 4 ratio. Even excluding the Kurds, Sunni Arabs amount to 42% of Iraqis with the Shi'a at 37%, he declared. According to Allyan, Turkomen, Christians, and other minority groups make up the difference. (Note: Though a census has yet to be conducted, most objective observers put the Shi'a at 60% with Kurds and Sunnis at about 20% each in the Iraqi population. End note.) Khalaf told the Ambassador that there were 6.6 million displaced Iraqis, 95% of whom were Sunnis. According to Khalaf, 4.6 million were abroad, and 2 million were internally displaced. (Note: The UN estimates the total number of Iraqis displaced at 2.2 million internally and 2 million abroad. End note.) Allyan said that there were 40,000 Sunnis detained by the Ministries of Interior and Defense and that 99% of them were innocent - they were framed by the government. (Note: The Iraqi Ministry of Human Rights estimates that there are fewer than 20,000 total detainees in GOI custody. End note.) Finally, Allyan's statement that 1.5 million Iraqis were killed since March 2003 is wildly at odds with even the most extreme casualty estimates. Remedies Equally Excessive -------------- ¶3. (C) Saying that the U.S. was responsible for what happens in Iraq, Allyan told the Ambassador that the U.S. must take control of Iraq and force the Kurds and Shi'a, who "now controlled everything," to adhere to reconciliation agreements. If the U.S. does not force the Kurds and Shi'a, leadership meetings will be useless, said Allyan. Turning to specifics, Allyan said local elections cannot be held until all 6.6 million displaced Iraqis return to their homes, have their security ensured, and are compensated. Moreover, Allyan said the Ministry of Foreign Affairs must be headed by an Arab and, irrespective of the composition of the Council of Representatives, all the ministries must have an equal balance of Sunnis, Shi'a and Kurds. All detainees in Coalition custody must be released, stated Allyan. But Some Concerns and Remedies are Mainstream Sunni -------------- -------------- ¶4. (C) "We have lost the respect of our electorate," said Allyan, in explaining why Tawafuq withdrew from government on August 1. It was not just the Maliki government, which has marginalized and attacked Sunnis, said Allyan, but also the U.S. government which was at fault. Allyan charged that U.S. promises on reform, unity, balance, and stability were not kept. Adnan Dulaymi, complaining about the exclusion of Sunnis in the government from important decisions, claimed that there were no Sunni Deputy Ministers, Directors General nor important commanders in the government. Serious human rights violations by the Iraqi Security Forces continued BAGHDAD 00002613 002 OF 002 unabated, with torture and secret prisons. Even when abuses were uncovered, as in Jedriya Bunker and Site 4, no one was held accountable, and the perpetrators were not punished. The Baghdad Security plan primarily targeted Sunnis with entire neighborhoods under siege. In contrast, actions planned for Sadr City were announced days in advance so the Shi'a militia could escape. "We need protection from the ISF in Sunni areas of Baghdad," said Allyan, proposing that Peshmerga or Coalition troops replace ISF until local police units could be formed. Allyan insisted that Iraqi Army units commanded by Col. Ali continued to terrorize the Yarmouk area of Mansour in Baghdad. He stated that Iraqi Army units backed by Coalition troops raided his party headquarters on August 2, destroying furniture and arresting one of his guards for no reason. As the meeting was breaking up, Allyan informed the Ambassador that the Iraqi Islamic Headquarters in Yarmouk was being mortared. These actions were a direct result of the Tawafuq walkout, he charged. (Note: Post is checking on the veracity of these last claims. End note.) ¶5. (C) The Ambassador strongly rejected suggestions that U.S. troops took part in a political action against the INDC offices. He also stressed that all Iraqis share responsibility for the future of Iraq. Taking the view that all of the fault lies with the other side is not conducive to progress, he added. The Sunnis were an essential element in Iraq's present, past, and future and must remain part of the political process. The U.S., while not surprised, was disappointed with the Tawafuq decision to withdraw. ¶6. (C) Comment: Sunni Tawafuq hard-liners like Khalaf Allyan, with their outrageous views of reality in Iraq, highlight the challenges faced by moderate Tawafuq leaders like Vice President Tarik al-Hashimi. When confronted with a political setback, Allyan's response is not to temper his demands, but to exaggerate his claims irrationally and escalate his demands. Such tactics make it even more difficult to reach a political accommodation or compromise with the Shi'a and Kurdish camps. Claiming that most Sunnis back him, Khalaf went out of his way to state that he would reject any compromise decisions to which he was not a party - stating explicitly that Tarik al-Hashimi represents only the IIP, not the entire Tawafuq. Post will work to prevent Allyan and Dulaymi from being spoilers during the upcoming leadership meeting. End comment. CROCKER