REVIEW OF THE DRAFT 2007 GOI BUDGET

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 000026 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 01/03/2017 TAGS: ECON EFIN IZ SUBJECT: REVIEW OF THE DRAFT 2007 GOI BUDGET REF: A. 2006 BAGHDAD 4745 ¶B. BAGHDAD O-I 12/21/06 ¶C. 2006 BAGHDAD 4616 BAGHDAD 00000026 001.2 OF 002 Classified By: Acting Economic Minister-Counselor Edward Kloth for reas ons 1.4(b) and (d). ¶1. (C) Summary: The Government of Iraq submitted the 2007 draft budget to the Council of Representatives for approval on December 24, 2006, following unanimous approval by the Council of Ministers on December 21. The overall budget for the year is $41 billion, with $10 billion for capital expenditures, $7.3 billion for security, $1.8 billion for the health sector, $2.6 billion for education and $2.4 billion for provincial allocations. While these numbers represent an increase over the 2006 allocations in dollars, the dinar amounts, due to an appreciated dinar, are roughly the same. Post remains concerned about funding levels for specific initiatives and has sought reassurances from the MoF that fuel will be available given the sharp drop in fuel import allocations. Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih's concepts, although not necessarily in the form described to us by the DPM, for loan arrangements, budget execution incentives and reducing public payrolls are also included in the draft budget law, although authority has been given to the Minister of Finance instead of to a group led by the Prime Minister as was initially suggested. The 2007 budget meets IMF standards specified in the SBA agreement. End summary. -------------- Revenues -------------- ¶2. (C) Following a budget formulation process led by the Minister of Finance (ref A),the 2007 budget meets IMF standards specified in the SBA agreement. Revenues are calculated using an estimate oil exports at 1.7 million barrels per day, and an estimated $50/barrel price. This sector accounts for 93% of revenues, and assumes an increase in exports from 2006, which were projected at 1.65mbpd and are likely to be lower. While the export projection for 2007 may be slightly optimistic, the price per barrel is likely to be higher, resulting in a budget surplus. -------------- Expenditures -------------- ¶3. (C) The overall budget for the year is $41 billion, with $10 billion for capital expenditures, $7.3 billion for security, $1.8 billion for the health sector, $2.6 billion for education and $2.5 billion for provincial allocations. The $7.7 billion deficit is financed by carry-over from the 2006 budget and previous years. The Kurdish Region has been allocated a separate line item at $4.7 billion in total, and the provinces as a whole are allocated $2.4 billion for capital expenditures. While Minister of Finance Bayan Jabr highlights the increases in allocations as compared to the 2006 budget in his letter introducing the budget to the CoR, these statements only reflect dollar increases, not Iraqi Dinar increases. -------------- The Exchange Rate -------------- ¶4. (C) As per Embassy and IMF recommendations to fight inflation, the Central Bank of Iraq has appreciated the dinar to 1325 ID per dollar, from 1470 earlier this year. The 2007 budget is based, however, on a further appreciation to 1260 ID to the dollar. So while dollar allocations have increased, ID allocations have mostly remained steady, and are not likely to keep pace with expected inflation in 2007, which has been significant in 2006 at about 50%. However, it is hoped that the increased purchasing power of the dinar due to its recent appreciation will offset the limited budgetary growth in general and help forestall demands for further growth in wages in particular. Given the very low rates of capital budget execution in 2006, a more fully executed 2007 budget would constitute a real increase in overall spending in comparison with 2006. -------------- Security and Special Initiatives -------------- ¶5. (C) In final negotiations before submission to the Council of Ministers, special initiatives were allocated $600 million from the security ministries' $7.9 billion request. This amount was broken down as follows: $150 million for Demilitarization, Demobilization and Reintegration (DDR), $150 million for Education infrastructure, $100 million for BAGHDAD 00000026 002 OF 002 an employment program within the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MOLSA) budget, $100 million for Higher Education infrastructure, and $100 million for pensions (for former military members). The housing initiative is not funded at all, and the amounts for DDR and the employment program are significantly lower than the initial requests of $450 and $550 million respectively. -------------- Fuel Allocations -------------- ¶6. (C) Fuel import subsidies have been cut drastically in the 2007 budget. The 2006 budget included $2.6 billion for fuel imports to be sold at subsidized prices, while the 2007 budget has just $300 million for kerosene imports for the poor. Private imports of fuel has been illegal in Iraq, and while the Fuel Import Liberalization Law (FILL) passed the Council of Representatives in September 2006 the law has not yet been fully implemented, so it will be hard for the private sector to meet demand immediately. Post understands that the Ministry of Finance (MoF),Mininstry of Oil (MoO) and IMF agreed during their November discussions about Iraq's SBA that the MoO can continue to import fuel, but must sell at market rates and return the revenue to the MoF, so that there will no net cost to the budget. Minister Jabr has said that a limited amount of initial funding will be provided to the MoO in 'advances' by the Ministry of Finance for this purpose (ref A). -------------- -------------- Loans, Encouraging Budget Execution, and Payroll Reductions -------------- -------------- ¶7. (C) Deputy Prime Minister Barham Salih has suggested several mechanisms for economic reform, which he included in the latest iteration of a proposal for a "Supreme Reconstruction Board," renamed the "National Council for Reconstruction and Development" in this latest version (ref B). While this proposal, and draft law establishing the NCRD, was apparently not approved by the Council of Ministers at their meeting on December 21, 2006, some of the ideas appear to have survived in the 2007 draft law which accompanied the budget to the Council of Representatives, albeit in different forms. The 2007 budget law also authorizes the Ministry of Finance to sign loan agreements for projects by specified donors and amounts: $3.5 billion from Japan, $500 million from the World Bank, $1 billion from Iran, and $1 billion from Kuwait. ¶8. (C) The 2007 budget law stipulates that the Minister of Finance, in coordination with the Ministry of Planning and Development Coordination, can reallocate capital investment if a line ministry has not executed at a rate of 75% or higher during the first half of the year. The budget law also authorizes the Ministry of Finance to pay half of the salary for two years for employees who transition to the private sector. DPM Barham Salih has championed these ideas for reallocating money from under-spending ministries and for decreasing government payrolls, but in this form the Minister of Finance appears to have a greater role than in DPM Salih's initial proposal (ref C). Post is seeking clarification on this subject from the MoF and the DPM,s office. -------------- Comment -------------- ¶9. (C) The 2007 budget seems to be a reasonable balance of the different demands on Iraqi revenues. Current expectations are that the Council of Representatives (CoR) will not make significant changes to the budget; a description of the CoR review process will be described septel. The economic reform measures suggested by DPM Barham Salih have yet to be fully developed, and similarly the special initiatives do not have clearly defined program designs or implementation plans. The real effect of the ultimately approved budget will depend on whether the GOI can execute the capital budget at better rates this year than in 2006. End comment. KHALILZAD