TALABANI PROPOSES A WAY FORWARD ON THE TAWAFUQ

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002529

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/29/2017
TAGS: IZ PGOV
SUBJECT: TALABANI PROPOSES A WAY FORWARD ON THE TAWAFUQ
CRISIS, NEED FOR A MESSAGE TO THE ARABS


Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) This is an action message - see paragraph 5.


2. (C) After the Ambassador's meeting with Iraqi President
Jalal Talabani and Deputy Prime Minister Barham Saleh July
30, it is clear that Tawafuq and Prime Minister Nuri
al-Maliki are further apart than when the Ambassador spoke
with Maliki on July 26. According to Saleh, the PM's
advisors have told Maliki that Tawafuq's impending withdrawal
is not serious, and he has enough support to weather the
storm. "They are ready to let Tawafuq go," Saleh said.
Talabani told the Ambassador that Maliki's attitude is one of
confrontation rather than negotiation. Saleh emphasized that
Tawafuq's leaders will need something signed to avoid loss of
face if they are to be convinced to remain in the government.


3. (C) The way forward: Saleh and the other deputy leaders
will meet in the afternoon on July 30 to agree on the agenda
for the leadership meeting that will bring together the heads
of the political blocs. The Presidency Council will then
meet on July 31 to finalize the agenda. Later that day or
August 1, there will be a 3 1 meeting of the Presidency
Council and PM Maliki. (Talabani said he would enlist the
help of ISCI leader Abdelaziz Hakim to convince Maliki to
come to the table.) In that meeting, Talabani will pin
Hashimi and Maliki down: Hashimi will agree to suspend
Tawafuq's departure and both leaders will agree to a
statement noting that all of Tawafuq's concerns will be
addressed in the leadership meeting (3 1 Barzani); they will
also fix a date -- preferably August 2 or 3. As a face
saving gesture for Hashimi, Talabani will work for the
release of a significant number of detainees. (Note:
Talabani called Iraqi Chief Justice Medhat during the July 30
meeting with the Ambassador to get the ball rolling on
release of more detainees; Medhat told Talabani that he had
already released 826 detainees and would add additional
investigators to process and release more detainees soonest.
End Note.)


4. (C) Comment: Talabani's recognition that the government
faces a crisis, and his willingness to engage as the
mediator, has provided a set of actions we can urge on the
two sides. Saleh added that in addition to weighing in with
Maliki on those actions, USG influence with Iraq's Sunni
neighbors is also critical. End Comment.


5. (C) Action requested: As the Secretary prepares to depart
for the region, Post recommends that she urge her
interlocutors, particularly in Egypt and Saudi Arabia, to
weigh in with Tawafuq constructively. Their message should
be simple and forceful: Now is not the time for Tawafuq to
overreach. Instead, Tawafuq must go into the leadership
meeting prepared to reach a deal, not to be obstructive. The
Jordanians could usefully deliver the same message.

CROCKER