ACTING COR SPEAKER OPTIMISTIC ON LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002363 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017 TAGS: PGOV ECON ENRG EPET IZ SUBJECT: ACTING COR SPEAKER OPTIMISTIC ON LEGISLATIVE PROGRESS REF: BAGHDAD 2331 Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). ¶1. (C) SUMMARY: On July 15 Council of Representatives Deputy Speaker al-Attiya told us he was optimistic about making progress on the framework Hydrocarbon Law and Provincial Powers Law before the August recess, provided there was quorum during the next two weeks. He said that in a recent conversation Sistani agreed that a first reading on the framework hydrocarbon law would be acceptable even if the Sadr and Tawafuq boycotts continue. PolCouns urged Attiyah and the rest of the parliament to work intensely to make progress on key items of legislation before the recess, cautioning that the political message the parliament was sending extended beyond the actual draft laws themselves. END SUMMARY. -------------- Parliament Boycotts -------------- ¶2. (C) According to al-Attiya, the work of parliament was hampered by ongoing Sadr and Tawafuq boycotts and the dispute over Speaker Mashhadani. Al-Attiya said that despite agreement on finding a dignified way for Mashhadani to exit, his Tawafuq bloc had not yet identified a replacement. MOreover, it had backtracked on several previous deadlines. Attiya saw this as evidence that Tawafuq was not a unified bloc. (Comment: No one would disagree about the bloc's cohesion problems. End Comment.) He suggested that Tawafuq nominate a temporary speaker in order to end the Council of Representatives (CoR) boycott, after which they could take time selecting a permanent replacement without blocking important CoR work. -------------- Benchmark Legislation -------------- ¶3. (C) Al-Attiya was optimistic about making progress on the framework Hydrocarbon Law, the Revenue Sharing Law, de- baathification, and provincial powers before the August recess. He revealed that in a recent conversation Sistani told him that Sistani had no objections to the parliament holding first readings on benchmark legislation despite continuing boycotts. Attiyah said Sistani had accepted the argument that these readings represented the beginning of debates rather than any final decisions. Attiyah did not foresee any major political fallout from the readings, characterizing them as informational sessions that contained the same material being discussed everyday in the media. POLCOUNS said the U.S. wanted to see progress on all these bills and an active Iraqi effort to develop consensus and move them forward. Asked about the potential role of the U.S. over the next two weeks al-Attiya responded that there is a clear need for the U.S. to pressure parties to reach agreements, particularly on the framework Hydrocarbon Law and the Revenue Sharing law. ¶4. (C) On the framework Hydrocarbon Law, al-Attiya confirmed that there was no need for further Council of Ministers involvement in order to use a draft reflecting the latest agreements between the Kurds and the central government (ref A). He noted that the Kurds have still not come to a full agreement on this bill, but that if agreement is reached the first reading could be held as early as July 19. Al-Attiya stated that many members of parliament and the media opposed the law without reading it and that some of the opposition reflects resistance to the political process as a whole rather than the bill itself. "They say it will give Iraq's wealth to the West," he said, "even though there is nothing like that in the law." Al- Attiya said a first reading will dispel some of the criticism that is based on 'ignorance rather than reality'. He had sent questions to international experts about the merits of the bill. Their responses endorsed the draft and said that with the appropriate investment Iraq had the potential to export between 6 and 9 million barrels of oil a day. Al-Attiya plans on disseminating this perspective to the media and the CoR. He said that because of Iraq's oil potential Saudi Arabia was trying to undermine the bill to protect its OPEC production share. In an aside, he commented that all of Iraq's neighbors, including Iran, were working against the interests of Iraq. (Comment: it is interesting that a top Shia Islamist would slam Iran this way. End Comment.) -------------- The Situation in the South -------------- BAGHDAD 00002363 002 OF 002 ¶5. (C) Asked about his recent trips to southern governorates, al-Attiya said that the south, unlike other areas of the country, was supportive of the central government. He highlighted the lack of economic development in the south and pointed to Diwaniya, a poor agricultural area with just four state-owned factories, all of which are now closed. He concluded by saying that security remains the single biggest challenge to the country as a whole. Attiyah noted that the boycotting Sadrist parliamentarians are telling him privately that they would like to rejoin the parliament's work. However, they dare not move without Moqtada's approval. Moqtada himself, Attiyah observed, is a mystery. ¶6. (C) COMMENT: By all accounts al-Attiyah's tenure as acting speaker has improved the efficiency and order of parliament sessions. His endorsement of the hydrocarbon law is welcome news and will greatly improve its chances of passing into law. We caution, however, that Attiyah is clearly aware of our desire to see progress on legislation and he was avoiding confrontation in this meeting. There are many, many challenges - Sistani and the Sunni Arab boycott, and ongoing Shia-Kurdish policy disputes to name just two - that could delay progress. END COMMENT. CROCKER