ACTING COR SPEAKER OPTIMISTIC ON LEGISLATIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002363

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/16/2017
TAGS: PGOV ECON ENRG EPET IZ
SUBJECT: ACTING COR SPEAKER OPTIMISTIC ON LEGISLATIVE
PROGRESS

REF: BAGHDAD 2331

Classified By: Political Counselor Robert Ford for reasons 1.4 (b) and
(d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On July 15 Council of Representatives
Deputy Speaker al-Attiya told us he was optimistic about
making progress on the framework Hydrocarbon Law and
Provincial Powers Law before the August recess, provided
there was quorum during the next two weeks. He said that
in a recent conversation Sistani agreed that a first
reading on the framework hydrocarbon law would be
acceptable even if the Sadr and Tawafuq boycotts continue.
PolCouns urged Attiyah and the rest of the parliament to
work intensely to make progress on key items of legislation
before the recess, cautioning that the political message
the parliament was sending extended beyond the actual draft
laws themselves. END SUMMARY.

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Parliament Boycotts
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2. (C) According to al-Attiya, the work of parliament was
hampered by ongoing Sadr and Tawafuq boycotts and the
dispute over Speaker Mashhadani. Al-Attiya said that
despite agreement on finding a dignified way for Mashhadani
to exit, his Tawafuq bloc had not yet identified a
replacement. MOreover, it had backtracked on several
previous deadlines. Attiya saw this as evidence that
Tawafuq was not a unified bloc. (Comment: No one would
disagree about the bloc's cohesion problems. End Comment.)
He suggested that Tawafuq nominate a temporary speaker in
order to end the Council of Representatives (CoR) boycott,
after which they could take time selecting a permanent
replacement without blocking important CoR work.

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Benchmark Legislation
--------------


3. (C) Al-Attiya was optimistic about making progress on
the framework Hydrocarbon Law, the Revenue Sharing Law, de-
baathification, and provincial powers before the August
recess. He revealed that in a recent conversation Sistani
told him that Sistani had no objections to the parliament
holding first readings on benchmark legislation despite
continuing boycotts. Attiyah said Sistani had accepted the
argument that these readings represented the beginning of
debates rather than any final decisions. Attiyah did not
foresee any major political fallout from the readings,
characterizing them as informational sessions that
contained the same material being discussed everyday in the
media. POLCOUNS said the U.S. wanted to see progress on
all these bills and an active Iraqi effort to develop
consensus and move them forward. Asked about the potential
role of the U.S. over the next two weeks al-Attiya
responded that there is a clear need for the U.S. to
pressure parties to reach agreements, particularly on the
framework Hydrocarbon Law and the Revenue Sharing law.


4. (C) On the framework Hydrocarbon Law, al-Attiya
confirmed that there was no need for further Council of
Ministers involvement in order to use a draft reflecting
the latest agreements between the Kurds and the central
government (ref A). He noted that the Kurds have still not
come to a full agreement on this bill, but that if
agreement is reached the first reading could be held as
early as July 19. Al-Attiya stated that many members of
parliament and the media opposed the law without reading it
and that some of the opposition reflects resistance to the
political process as a whole rather than the bill itself.
"They say it will give Iraq's wealth to the West," he said,
"even though there is nothing like that in the law." Al-
Attiya said a first reading will dispel some of the
criticism that is based on 'ignorance rather than reality'.
He had sent questions to international experts about the
merits of the bill. Their responses endorsed the draft and
said that with the appropriate investment Iraq had the
potential to export between 6 and 9 million barrels of oil
a day. Al-Attiya plans on disseminating this perspective
to the media and the CoR. He said that because of Iraq's
oil potential Saudi Arabia was trying to undermine the bill
to protect its OPEC production share. In an aside, he
commented that all of Iraq's neighbors, including Iran,
were working against the interests of Iraq. (Comment: it
is interesting that a top Shia Islamist would slam Iran
this way. End Comment.)

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The Situation in the South
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5. (C) Asked about his recent trips to southern
governorates, al-Attiya said that the south, unlike other
areas of the country, was supportive of the central
government. He highlighted the lack of economic
development in the south and pointed to Diwaniya, a poor
agricultural area with just four state-owned factories, all
of which are now closed. He concluded by saying that
security remains the single biggest challenge to the
country as a whole. Attiyah noted that the boycotting
Sadrist parliamentarians are telling him privately that
they would like to rejoin the parliament's work. However,
they dare not move without Moqtada's approval. Moqtada
himself, Attiyah observed, is a mystery.


6. (C) COMMENT: By all accounts al-Attiyah's tenure as
acting speaker has improved the efficiency and order of
parliament sessions. His endorsement of the hydrocarbon
law is welcome news and will greatly improve its chances of
passing into law. We caution, however, that Attiyah is
clearly aware of our desire to see progress on legislation
and he was avoiding confrontation in this meeting. There
are many, many challenges - Sistani and the Sunni Arab
boycott, and ongoing Shia-Kurdish policy disputes to name
just two - that could delay progress. END COMMENT.
CROCKER