MINISTER FAWZI HARIRI DESCRIBES SHIA-KURDISH

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002340

SIPDIS

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/14/2017
TAGS: IR IS IZ PGOV PINR PREL
SUBJECT: MINISTER FAWZI HARIRI DESCRIBES SHIA-KURDISH
ALLIANCE

Classified By: Ambassador Ryan C. Crocker for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).


1. (C) SUMMARY: On July 10, Minister of Industry and
Minerals Fawzi Hariri (Kurdish, KDP) told the Ambassador that
four major political parties plan to forge a formal alliance
in order to challenge the power of extremists in Iraqi party
politics. Hariri said that the Kurdish Democratic Party
(KDP),the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK),Islamic Dawa
Party (Dawa),and Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq (ISCI) have
joined together to preserve the political successes achieved
thus far in Iraq, including the creation of a constitution
and the acceptance of a federalist concept. The Ambassador
stated firmly that the USG will not support a Shia-Kurdish
alliance that excludes Sunnis. Hariri also claimed that the
Sadrist Movement now controls the Independent Higher
Electoral Commission (IHEC). He described Prime Minister
Nouri Al-Maliki as weak and isolated, Hariri also stated that
Maliki is frustrated with the limited role of the Iraqi Army
in recent military engagements. Other ministers also feel
weakened and ineffective, Hariri claimed, because the Council
of Representatives (CoR) deprives ministers of the authority
they need to function effectively. Hariri's ministry
recently received an Iranian proposal to invest in
petrochemicals. Finally, Hariri reported that most of Iraq's
neighbors -- including Israel -- have begun cooperating in
the return of looted artifacts, with the notable exceptions
of Kuwait, Iran and Turkey. END SUMMARY.

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THE SHIA-KURDISH 4-PARTY ALLIANCE
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2. (C) Minister of Industry and Minerals Fawzi Hariri told
the Ambassador July 10 that four major political parties plan
to forge a formal alliance in order to challenge the power of
extremists in Iraqi party politics. Hariri, who also serves
as spokesperson for the KDP, said that the PUK, Dawa, ISCI
and the KDP have joined together in order to preserve the
political successes achieved thus far in Iraq, including the
creation of a constitution and the acceptance of a federalist
concept. They want to change the fundamental tenets of Iraqi
politics, Hariri asserted, by basing their alliance on shared
political interests rather than shared ethnic identity.
Hariri explained that the parties plan to sign an agreement
in Irbil, and averred that Iran did not play a part in
facilitating this four-party alliance. "I think Iranians
would welcome it, though," he allowed, "since they have good
relations with all of the parties."


3. (C) The Ambassador stated firmly that the USG will not
support a Shia-Kurdish alliance that excludes Sunnis. He
added that this new grouping, especially if it excludes Vice
President Tariq Al-Hashimi, could tip the scales in the U.S.
Congress against prolonging the current level of American
commitment to Iraq. At the Ambassador's request, Hariri
promised to convey USG concerns to Kurdistan Regional
Government President Massoud Barzani that a Shia-Kurdish
alliance would make it very difficult for the United States
to defend the current political process. (Note: Hariri
subsequently reported from Irbil that Barzani remained
completely committed to Sunni Arab participation in the
governance of Iraq, adding that "we will not proceed without
complete coordination with the US Government."

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SADRISTS NOW CONTROL IHEC
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4. (C) Hariri claimed that the Sadrist Movement now controls
the Independent Higher Electoral Commission (IHEC) through
the machinations of Chief Electoral Officer Karim Mahmoud
Al-Tamimi. Hariri said that IHEC Chairman Faraj Mirza
Alhayari told him that Tamimi ensures that the IHEC serves
the interests of the Sadrists. According to Alhayari, agents
of the Sadrist Movement threaten and intimidate those on the
IHEC who oppose them. Hariri claimed that Sadrists intend to
use IHEC to help them ensure victory in upcoming provincial
elections.

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MALIKI FRUSTRATED BY LIMITED ROLE OF IRAQI ARMY
-------------- --


5. (C) Hariri said that 24 ministers attended the July 10
Council of Ministers meeting, where discussion centered on
frustration with the limited Iraqi role in recent military
operations. Hariri said that Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki
expressed disappointment that whenever U.S. military leaders
speak to the media, they give the impression that only
American troops are fighting. These military statements,
Maliki reportedly complained, feed into Congressional
arguments in favor of imposing a withdrawal deadline. Maliki

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said, according to Hariri, that he thought Iraqis were
supposed to be leading combat engagements, with American
troops in support. Hariri said that Maliki wants more Iraqi
control in future military operations. Maliki complained,
for instance, that the Iraqi Army has not been able to use
the 10 - 12 American helicopters that they recently
purchased.


6. (C) Hariri said that Minister of Defense Abd Al-Qadr
Al-Mufriji responded to Maliki by asserting that Iraqis are
ready to act with a great degree of independence from the
U.S. military. They need air support, Qadr claimed, but can
operate independently on the ground. Hariri said that the
Cabinet reached consensus that the Prime Minister must "iron
out differences (with the Americans) on command and control."



7. Hariri said that Minister of Planning Ali Baban of
Tawafaq attended the July 10 Council of Ministers meeting.
The Cabinet postponed discussion of revenue sharing until
their next meeting.

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MALIKI IS ISOLATED AND WEAK
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8. (C) Hariri said that Maliki seems to feel "lost and
isolated," and finds it difficult to ask for help. He has "a
terrible team around him," Hariri charged, "which is a large
part of the reason for his failure." Maliki lives enclosed
in a cocoon, Hariri asserted, surrounded by people telling
him that everything is all right. He said that former Prime
Minister Ibrahim al-Ja'fari is a natural replacement for
Maliki, and claimed that "talk of (Ja'fari) in this way
indicates major lack of confidence in Maliki." Hariri did
praise Maliki, however, for his strong opposition to the
Sadrist Movement, which Hariri described as the "biggest
group and the biggest challenge" for Iraq.

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MINISTERS LACK AUTHORITY TO FUNCTION EFFECTIVELY
-------------- ---


9. (C) Hariri complained that oversight and interference by
Council of Representative (CoR) Committees deprives
Government Ministers of the requisite authority to take
independent decisions. Hariri said that while the
Constitution grants ministers authority to make decisions, in
practice the CoR constrains them. "Right now," Hariri said,
"if the Economic Committee does not meet, then my work (in
the Ministry of Industry and Minerals) stalls." Ministers
cannot effectively direct their ministries when they must
constantly seek CoR approval for their actions, Hariri
reported. While the ministers lack full authority to carry
out their jobs, he said, they are still held accountable for
their ministries' performance.

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IRAN'S PROPOSED INVESTMENTS IN IRAQ
--------------


10. (C) Hariri reported that Iran proposed to invest $400
million in two Diyala projects: a petrochemical plant, and a
factory that produces fertilizer and electrical generators.
Hariri said that he refused this offer and suggested instead
that they invest in a tire factory in Najaf and in a sugar
plant in Diwaniya. Hariri also said that the Government of
Iraq (GOI) is currently engaged in discussions with Dow
Chemicals about jointly investing $2 billion in a chemical
factory in Basra.

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WHO IS, AND WHO ISN'T, RETURNING STOLEN ARTIFACTS TO IRAQ
-------------- --------------


11. (C) The Cabinet also discussed July 10 the return to
Iraq of stolen historical objects, according to Hariri. Many
countries in the region, Hariri said, have begun returning
artifacts to the GOI. Notably, Hariri explained, Israeli
officials returned, through a third party, objects that they
had seized at Ben Gurion International Airport. Three
countries, Hariri claimed, have not cooperated in collecting
and returning Iraq's historical artifacts: Kuwait, Iran, and
Turkey.

CROCKER