INDEPENDENT SHI'A MP ON CURRENT POLITICAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L BAGHDAD 002329 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/12/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS IZ SUBJECT: INDEPENDENT SHI'A MP ON CURRENT POLITICAL MANEUVERINGS Classified By: Deputy Political Counselor Charles O. Blaha for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d). -------------- Skepticism on Group of Four -------------- ¶1. (C) Taha Dera, an independent Shi'a CoR member now a member of Qassim Daoud's Solidarity Bloc, expressed skepticism to PolOff on July 11 about prospects for the ISCI-Dawa-KDP-PUK alliance, aka the "group of four." The alliance cannot count on the Ja'fari branch of Dawa, he reasoned, and the Sadrists and Dawa Tanzim feel isolated from it as well. Dera was also critical that alliance members were discussing the alliance in the media before clarifying its program. However, he said that many independent Shi'a CoR members would support the alliance as a new political front if it had true Sunni participation. They might also support it as a mechanism for energizing the CoR, as distinct from a formal political front, even if it did not include Sunnis, he continued. Fadhila, he predicted, would go to the highest bidder as it was eager to secure a place in the government. (Note: Several Fadhila members told PolOff on July 8 that they expect major changes in the government and are being courted by the Shi'a coalition, i.e. Dawa and ISCI. End note.) Dera offered typical critiques of the Maliki government, saying he would prefer to see Maliki replaced or, failing that, a wholesale ministerial shuffle that would bring in technocrats. -------------- Mashhadani and Legislative Priorities -------------- ¶2. (C) Offering his view on key issues facing the CoR, Dera said that his personal preference was that CoR Speaker Mashhadani be allowed to return so that Tawafuq would return and the CoR could address key legislation for the rest of July. He acknowledged, however, that most Shi'a CoR members did not share his view and would certainly not accept Mashhadani's return without a guarantee of when he would leave. A member of the Regions and Governorate Affairs committee, Dera said that the committee had "incorporated the good suggestions from the Prime Minister's office and left out the bad" on pending provincial powers legislation. He opined that there would not be significant political opposition to the law as the CoR's main blocs participated in the committee. He said that the IHEC would promulgate regulations for provincial elections which the CoR must then approve and predicted that the closed list system would not survive, given a general recognition among CoR members that it did not allow for sufficient accountability to constituents. While Dera supports early provincial elections from a political perspective, he argued that the security situation would not allow them in provinces like Diyala, Kirkuk, and Ninewa. -------------- Diyala -------------- ¶3. (C) A Diyala native and active member of the Diyala support committee, Dera said recent MNF-I operations in Diyala are a step in the right direction but identified two problems. He accepts the idea of integrating into the police force elements of the local Sunni population dedicated to fighting al-Qaeda, including members of the 1920s brigade. However, Dera claimed that in the areas where this recruitment was taking place in Baquba, Shi'a had been completely driven from their homes; thus a force of local recruits would not include Shi'a, which he said was unacceptable. Secondly, Dera claimed that the MNF units that undertook operations in Baquba had been transferred from other places in Diyala, leaving those places under-protected and vulnerable to terrorists. CROCKER