PART 2 OF 2: SECTARIAN VIOLENCE FORCES MAJOR SHIFT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 BAGHDAD 002318 SIPDIS SIPDIS E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/10/2017 TAGS: PGOV PINS PINR IZ SUBJECT: PART 2 OF 2: SECTARIAN VIOLENCE FORCES MAJOR SHIFT IN BAGHDAD DEMOGRAPHICS REF: A. BAGHDAD 1866 ¶B. BAGHDAD 1425 Classified By: DEPUTY POLCOUNS CHARLES O. BLAHA, FOR REASONS 1.4 (B) AN D (D). ¶1. (C) Summary: Sectarian violence has caused significant demographic shifts in Baghdad. Before February 2006, most neighborhoods west of the Tigris River contained mixed populations from two or more of the city's three major religious groupings, Sunnis, Shia, and Christians. Western Baghdad currently contains more embattled areas than does eastern Baghdad. Most Sunnis in western Baghdad now live in enclosed, Sunni-majority "cantons" surrounded by Shia-dominated neighborhoods. Many Christians have fled the city. The first cable in this two-part series provided an overview of the possible consequences of Baghdad's demographic shifts, and detailed the changes taking place in eastern Baghdad. This cable describes the demographic changes occurring in western Baghdad. End Summary. -------------- West Baghdad: Once Mixed, Now Cantonized -------------- ¶2. (C) Before February 2006, most neighborhoods in western Baghdad's four central districts were mixed. As of July 2007, Baghdad west of the Tigris has become largely divided and embattled. Prior to the Samara bombing, the only predominantly Sunni areas in western Baghdad included the Mansour and Hateen neighborhoods of the Mansour district, and Salaam in the Kadhamiya district. Shia predominated only in northern areas of the Kadhamiya district, including the Harbiya/Hurriya, Zahra, Fajr and Kadhamiya neighborhoods. In the course of the past 18 months, Kadhamiya has turned almost entirely Shia, and West Mansour has become predominantly Sunni. Parts of east Mansour, however, remain mixed, while Shia dominate other parts. Karkh has remained predominantly Sunni and also retained some mixed neighborhoods. -------------- Kadhamiya: Once Mixed With Shia Majority, Now Predominantly Shia -------------- ¶4. (C) Before February 2006, five of Kadhamiya's nine neighborhoods were mixed, including Salam and Atafiya. Shia predominated in the four northern neighborhoods of Kadhamiya, Zahra, Harbiya, Hurriya and Fajr. As of July 2007, Shia populate almost all of Kadhamiya. Due to considerable Shiite Jayish al-Mahdi (JAM) militia influence in the area, Sunnis generally consider all Kadhamiya neighborhoods off limits. -------------- -------------- Karkh: Predominantly Sunni, with Some Mixed Areas -------------- -------------- ¶5. (C) Before February 2002, seven of Karkh's nine neighborhoods were mixed, with the exception of two neighborhoods contained in the area currently known as the International Zone (IZ); the IZ was predominantly Sunni. As of July 2007, the Sheikh Junaid and Sheikh Maarouf neighborhoods have become predominantly Sunni, while Zawraa and Salhiya remain mixed. Sunni-Shia relations in Zawraa and Salhiya (both adjacent to the IZ) are fairly stable, but sectarian tension increases north along Haifa Street toward Kadhamiya. -------------- Mansour: Once Mixed, Now Home to Baghdad's Largest Sunni Enclave -------------- ¶6. (C) Before February 2006, most of the Mansour district's 12 neighborhoods were mixed; by July 2007, the majority of Mansour's neighborhoods have become predominantly Sunni. Sunni-Shia relations in Mansour are generally hostile and tend to deteriorate increasingly as one moves further toward the west of the district. Sunnis dominate Andalus, Ameriya, Khadra, Hateen, Yarmouk, east Ghazalia, and most of Qadisiya. Shia retain strongholds that surround these areas on almost all sides, in the 14 Ramadan, Mansour and Mutanabi neighborhoods. Adel is mixed with a slight Sunni majority. The western half of Ghazalia remains mixed and hotly contested, with a slight Shia majority. ¶7. (C) Shia generally consider west Mansour (except the mixed section of Ghazalia) off limits because Sunni extremist groups -- including Al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI),the Islamic Army, the Islamic State of Iraq, and Jaysh Omar -- wield considerable influence throughout the area. The "fault line" that separates east and west Ghazalia has experienced BAGHDAD 00002318 002 OF 002 continuous sectarian violence. Both JAM and Sunni extremists have also aggressively contested the Adel neighborhood, seeking to cleanse the area of members of the opposite sect. Intra-Sunni relations have also deteriorated in Mansour,s Ameriya neighborhood in recent months (Reftel A). -------------- East Rashid: Once Mixed, Now Cantonized and Embattled -------------- ¶8. (C) Sectarian relations are extremely hostile in both East and West Rashid. Sunni and Shia militias have aggressively driven members of the other sect from their respective areas, and they have also routed many of the Christians who formerly inhabited neighborhoods in East Rashid, most significantly in Doura (Reftel B). Residents report that they must carry both Sunni and Shia identity cards in order safely to traverse the various militia checkpoints in the area. ¶9. (C) Before February 2006, four of East Rashid's seven neighborhoods were mixed, while Sunnis created enclaves in Jaza,ir, Masafee and western Hadar. As of July 2007, Sunnis dominate six of East Rashid's neighborhoods, while Shia predominate in the southwestern neighborhood of Zubaida. -------------- West Rashid: Once Shia and Mixed, Now Mostly Shia -------------- ¶10. (C) Before February 2006, about half of West Rashid,s six neighborhoods were predominantly Shia, and about half were mixed: Jihad, Saydiya and the northern parts of Amel and Shurta were mixed, while Bayaa, Resala, and the southern parts of Amel and Shurta were predominantly Sunni. As of July 2007, an aggressive campaign by JAM elements has cleared almost all Sunnis from every neighborhood, with exception of the easternmost neighborhood of Saydiya, where Sunnis predominate. Jihad remains mixed but cantonized, with Sunni and Shia extremists controlling various areas. CROCKER